As fantasy football drafts approach, the player pool can quickly become overwhelming, making it essential to know which athletes to target and which to avoid. Utilizing expert consensus rankings alongside average draft position (ADP) can significantly streamline your decision-making process. In this way, you can identify which players experts believe are worth the risk at their current draft cost and who may be overvalued.
Among the players to avoid this year is Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs. Much has been made about Mahomes’ decline in production since 2022. Despite being one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league, he hasn’t finished inside the top six in fantasy points per game in recent seasons. His passing efficiency has taken a hit, with yards per attempt falling to 6.8 and 7.0 in the past two years. Moreover, his passing touchdown tally has also declined. Although Mahomes brings value as a rusher, consistently finishing in the top 12 for quarterback rushing yards, concerns linger over his passing accuracy and ability to perform on deep throws. With his current ADP, there are reasons to consider him only a low-end QB1 in your draft.
Another player raising eyebrows is Kyler Murray from the Arizona Cardinals. Murray ranked as the QB12 in fantasy points per game last season, maintaining a steady statistical average over the past three years. While his rushing ability keeps him relevant, fantasy managers have often been frustrated by the lack of consistency in his weekly performances. In fact, last year he had five top-five weekly finishes but also nine where he fell outside the top 15. His passing metrics reveal limitations, ranking 20th among quarterbacks in yards per attempt and 18th in completion percentage over expected. Murray may possess the potential for explosive games but navigating when to start him can be a challenge.
Jared Goff, the Detroit Lions quarterback, presents another point of concern. Last season, Goff finished as QB7 in fantasy scoring largely due to an unusually high 6.9% passing touchdown rate, a figure that is difficult to replicate. While Goff had an impressive completion rate and yards per attempt, his rushing capabilities are lacking, which casts doubt on his ability to maintain value if his touchdowns regress. His previous best touchdown percentage in Detroit had been 5.0%. Goff’s performance suggests he is better viewed as a top-15 quarterback who might rank as a low-end QB1 in the coming season.
Aaron Rodgers, now playing for the Pittsburgh Steelers, has become a shadow of his former self. Last season, Rodgers finished as the QB19 in fantasy points per game, even while playing in a pass-happy offense. The Steelers may increase their passing attempts in 2025, but they won’t likely rank among the league’s elite offenses. Rodgers’ efficiency metrics don’t inspire confidence either, as he performed poorly regarding yards per attempt and completion percentage over expectation, ranking near the bottom of qualifying quarterbacks. With these limitations, Rodgers may find himself among the QB2 ranks, serving as a viable streaming option only in favorable matchups.
Lastly, we cannot overlook the potential pitfalls of drafting Sam Darnold. The former first-round pick has seen disappointing seasons, leading to skepticism regarding his ability to succeed in a new system. While Darnold has shown flashes of talent, inconsistency and injury issues have plagued him throughout his career. Fantasy managers may find themselves taking a gamble if they draft him based on hope rather than proven performance.
In summary, heading into the 2025 fantasy football season, it’s crucial to approach draft day with caution when considering certain players. While superstars like Mahomes and Murray bring undeniable talent, their current forms and ADPs suggest that they could underperform relative to their past achievements. Similarly, Goff’s touchdown dependency and Rodgers’ noticeable decline have made them less appealing options unless the value presents itself late in the draft. As for Darnold, the risk may not outweigh the potential reward. Be mindful of these players as you prepare your roster, focusing instead on more reliable alternatives as your draft unfolds.
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