As part of ongoing efforts to resolve the long-standing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, President Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan are scheduled to meet in Washington in the coming days.
This meeting is an important step in the diplomatic dialogue between the two nations, as it signifies a shift in the dynamic of international mediation in the region.
Both leaders are not expected to sign a complete peace agreement, but rather to formalize a commitment towards peace through a document referred to as a “letter of intent.”
Reports suggest that this meeting may be facilitated by President Donald Trump, indicating a notable increase in diplomatic attention from the United States towards the South Caucasus.
While officials have not yet confirmed or denied these developments, the prospect of a high-level meeting in Washington underscores a growing push for peace led by Western nations.
Since the war in 2020, multiple formats for negotiations have emerged, with some led by Russia while others have been spearheaded by the European Union and its leaders, particularly European Council President Charles Michel.
The U.S. has also intensified its role in mediation efforts, highlighted by a meeting hosted by Secretary of State Antony Blinken in May 2023, where the foreign ministers of both countries engaged in prolonged discussions.
In contrast, the Russian government has expressed disapproval of the Western interactions, criticizing the talks in Washington as detrimental to its influence in the area.
Russia’s position has been further weakened due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and increasing tensions with both Armenian and Azerbaijani governments.
The reliability of Russian peacekeepers has also come under scrutiny, especially following their failure to maintain the Lachin corridor to Karabakh in late 2022, which led to severe humanitarian consequences.
The geopolitical landscape began shifting when a surprise meeting between Aliyev and Pashinyan took place in July 2025 in the UAE, breaking months of impasse and indicating a renewed diplomatic momentum.
Following that encounter, both leaders expressed their dedication to pursuing a final peace agreement, further setting the stage for the upcoming Washington discussions.
As the two sides prepare for the meeting, the agenda is expected to revolve around key components of a comprehensive peace agreement.
Among these components is the mutual recognition of territorial integrity, which was tentatively outlined in March 2025 but later stalled over contentious issues.
One such contentious issue is Armenia’s constitution, which includes territorial claims against Azerbaijan. The Pashinyan government has indicated its intent to hold a referendum in 2027 to make amendments in this regard.
Additionally, there are ongoing disputes related to the proposed “Zangezur corridor,” a transport link Azerbaijan seeks for easier access to its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory.
Armenia has rejected the term “corridor,” viewing the proposal as a threat to its sovereignty, while Azerbaijan insists on the need for free passage along this route.
Various compromise proposals have emerged, including a suggestion by the U.S. to manage the route through an international firm.
Armenia has resisted this idea, emphasizing that it will not lease its territory to foreign entities, thus illustrating the complexity of negotiations ahead.
While an official peace agreement is unlikely to emerge from the Washington meeting, there is hope that a preliminary agreement on foundational principles can be reached.
President Aliyev indicated that an agreement on key principles could be formalized within a matter of months, signaling optimism for the outcome of the impending talks.
The anticipated letter of intent is expected to include mutual assurances against territorial claims, a commitment to recognize respective borders, and plans to open transport routes.
The discussions will also aim to establish a timeline for finalizing the comprehensive peace agreement, marking a significant diplomatic achievement if successful.
The overall context of heightened border tensions and sporadic clashes adds urgency to these discussions.
Despite the ceasefire established after the 2020 conflict, undefined state borders have led to periodic skirmishes, significantly compromising regional stability.
An incident in September 2022 resulted in significant casualties on both sides and highlighted the necessity for clear border demarcations.
As the relationship deteriorated, the international community urged for a ceasefire, resulting in temporary mediation efforts from Russia.
Further complicating matters, a planned meeting in October 2023 in Granada was canceled as President Aliyev withdrew in protest of French President Emmanuel Macron’s involvement.
Amid these challenges, positive developments have occurred, such as Armenia’s announcement in April 2024 to return several enclaves to Azerbaijan, fostering trust between the two nations.
However, the broader border delimitation process remains unresolved and crucial to long-term peace efforts.
Uncertainties about border demarcation continue to prompt local incidents, emphasizing the need for reliable security mechanisms.
Currently, the EU has stationed a civilian monitoring mission in Armenia, which Azerbaijan opposes, indicating diverging priorities between the countries.
Humanitarian considerations remain pressing as well, with unresolved issues from the aftermath of the 2020 war, including the exchange of detainees and demining efforts.
The plight of thousands of Armenian refugees from Karabakh and Azerbaijan’s legal actions against former separatist leaders underscore the necessity of broader humanitarian discussions.
Experts suggest that cooperation on transport routes could pave the way for addressing more politically sensitive issues down the line.
During the Washington meeting, the hope is that both sides will find common ground on transportation corridors, potentially sending a strong signal in favor of peace.
If a deal concerning the transport corridor can be struck, it may foster an environment conducive to postponing more contentious discussions, like constitutional amendments.
The anticipated meeting represents a pivotal moment in the peace process, signaling both countries’ willingness to engage in dialogue beyond Russian mediation frameworks.
Sustaining this dialogue is essential for preventing renewed conflict, thus showing the importance of the Washington talks in maintaining regional stability.
A successful meeting would also formalize the commitment of both parties not only to their own populations but also to the international community.
The official signing of such a letter of intent would serve as a foundation for constructing a lasting peace agreement, benefiting wide-ranging regional stability.
Simultaneously, the Washington discussions could reshape geopolitical dynamics, with potential consequences for Russia’s influence as U.S. and EU engagement increases.
Resolutions generated from these talks could lead to enhanced economic integrations, regional collaborations, and normalization of Armenia-Turkey relations.
Despite the high stakes, it’s crucial to recognize that this meeting won’t resolve all ongoing issues, and further technical negotiations will be needed.
Nevertheless, the outcomes from Washington have the potential to energize these discussions and facilitate the introduction of international guarantees for future agreements.
If the meeting proceeds as planned, it may be remembered as a significant turning point in the pursuit of peace that has continued for nearly three decades.
A handshake in Washington could represent the recognition from both leaders that the path forward must be one of peace and mutual concessions.
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