On Friday, President Donald Trump hosted Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the White House in a meeting that many are calling a landmark occasion. The two countries, which have been embroiled in conflict for the past 30 years, reached an agreement that represents a significant step towards resolving the long-disputed Zangezur corridor issue, referred to as the Syunik corridor by Armenians.
The deal, which President Trump brokered, grants the United States exclusive special development rights for 99 years to construct the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). This route will facilitate the development of railways, energy transport infrastructure, and fiber-optic lines in the region.
By connecting mainland Azerbaijan with its exclave, Nakhichevan, the TRIPP will complete a continuous corridor from Azerbaijan to Türkiye through Armenian territory. This development is expected to enhance regional connectivity in the South Caucasus and streamline access to Europe and the West, while strategically bypassing both Iran and Russia. Such a shift is seen as a significant victory for Washington and its allies.
With the TRIPP, the U.S. will have control over a route that places Iran’s sole land border with Armenia under a U.S.-controlled transit pathway. This alignment with Azerbaijani and Turkish interests effectively constrains Tehran’s access to the South Caucasus, a situation that Iran has long opposed.
Armenia had previously rejected the original Zangezur Corridor proposal, asserting that any agreement should respect its sovereignty and ensure reciprocity. It argued that any route crossing its territory should allow Armenia to retain complete control and receive comparable rights to use the Nakhichevan segment for access to its northern regions.
Negotiations have been stalled for years, with Azerbaijani demands for unimpeded access to its exclave running counter to Armenian suggestions for the opening of all Soviet-era transport links, including those with Türkiye. Additionally, Azerbaijan’s insistence on changes to Armenian constitutional references regarding Nagorno-Karabakh further complicated discussions. At times of heightened tension, President Aliyev even hinted at the potential use of force to seize the Zangezur/Syunik region if diplomatic efforts failed.
Despite some similarities to the original Zangezur Corridor proposal, the TRIPP will be administered by the United States, enhancing Washington’s influence in a crucial energy hub. According to statements from the U.S., the route will operate under Armenian law, which is aimed at balancing the interests of both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Significantly, the agreement includes no commitment from Armenia to amend its constitution, despite Aliyev’s assertion following the signing that it was not a peace agreement. He reiterated Baku’s demand that Yerevan make the necessary constitutional changes before any final peace agreement can be reached.
The TRIPP appears to favor Turkish and Azerbaijani interests more than those of Armenia, particularly at a time when Yerevan has found itself isolated after distancing from Moscow and lacking a robust regional ally. For Azerbaijan, the construction of the corridor fulfills a longstanding objective of establishing a direct land link to Nakhichevan and onto Türkiye.
Moreover, for Türkiye, it strengthens physical connections to the Turkic world within the Caspian basin, solidifying its role as a regional transit hub and amplifying its geopolitical influence in the South Caucasus. While the TRIPP provides Armenia with potential pathways to normalize relations with Türkiye and access to European markets, it primarily positions Armenia as a transit corridor for Azerbaijani-Turkish trade.
With limited control over the TRIPP, a small export base, and restricted opportunities to benefit from passing commerce, Armenia stands to gain significantly less from the initiative compared to Azerbaijan and Türkiye. Consequently, it concedes a degree of strategic advantage to two competitors whose ambitions often conflict with its own.
Armenia currently faces a precarious situation during negotiations, being arguably the most vulnerable it has been since gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Reports indicate that public support for the current leadership has plummeted to approximately 15 percent, while Azerbaijani forces occupy around 200 square kilometers of Armenian territory. Furthermore, Yerevan has suffered five major military defeats to Baku in the past decade, further diminishing its negotiating power.
In contrast, Azerbaijan has maintained the upper hand throughout the negotiation process. Following the reclamation of disputed territories in Nagorno-Karabakh and the displacement of its Armenian population in 2023, Baku also occupies regions within Armenia itself. It enjoys strong strategic partnerships with Türkiye and Israel and robust energy and trade ties with the European Union. In addition, Azerbaijan has attracted more than $80 billion in investments from the UK, thereby bolstering its global standing.
As part of the ongoing changes in regional dynamics, Washington has also lifted Section 907 restrictions on aid to Azerbaijan, a measure in place since 1992, following the agreement with Armenia. Although Türkiye did not participate in the White House summit, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan played a crucial role leading to the negotiations. The TRIPP therefore serves not only Turkish strategic interests but also confirms its emergence as a regional hegemon, supplanting Russia, which historically held that position.
Since the onset of modern conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russia has been seen as Armenia’s principal security guarantor. The country maintained a significant military base in Gyumri, has continued to enforce security on the Iran-Armenia border, and had served as a co-chair alongside the OSCE Minsk Group, established in 1992 to oversee peace negotiations related to Nagorno-Karabakh. However, the issuance of Friday’s deal has effectively dissolved the mediation body and undercut Russia’s previous peacekeeping mandate over the Azerbaijan-Nakhichevan route assigned during the 2020 ceasefire.
The U.S. and Turkey’s diplomacy, alongside Russia’s inability to check Azerbaijani advances in recent years, has paved the way for the current agreement. Analysts suggest that Azerbaijan’s decisive actions in the 2023 offensive were implicitly permitted by Russia, particularly as Armenia aligned more closely with Western interests.
Even just a day before the signing of the deal, a Russian strike aimed at a gas compressor station used to transport Azerbaijani gas to Ukraine indicated Moscow’s dissatisfaction with being sidelined in both the conflict and the negotiations.
The TRIPP poses considerable challenges for Iran as well. Iran views its border with Armenia as a vital trade route to Europe, meaning that any loss of Armenian sovereignty over this area is a direct threat to both its border security and regional influence. Given Tehran’s current state, weighed down by sanctions and domestic pressures since October 7, it lacks the means to counterbalance these shifts in the South Caucasus.
Speculation suggests that the U.S. may leverage the peace process to involve both Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Abraham Accords, a move that raises additional concerns for Iran’s regional foothold.
Despite the TRIPP marking a notable achievement for U.S. and Western interests, several critical issues remain unresolved. There are still no assurances regarding the rights and security of ethnic Armenians wishing to return to Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan’s continuing occupation of Armenian territory, coupled with the retention of Armenian captives and prisoners of war in Azerbaijani custody, further complicates the situation.
President Trump did express his intention to discuss the matter of POWs with Aliyev, stating, “I think he will release POWs for me.” Nevertheless, the TRIPP stands as a pivotal step toward addressing these challenges and a clear diplomatic triumph for President Trump on the global stage.
image source from：thesoufancenter
