Thursday

08-14-2025 Vol 2052

U.S. Tariffs and Sanctions Signal a Shift in Policy Toward Brazil

Recent U.S. tariffs on Brazilian goods mark a notable shift in American policy towards Brazil, raising questions about the implications for bilateral relations.

Britta Crandall, director of the Center for Interdisciplinary Studies and Associate Professor of the Practice in Political Science at Davidson College, points out the long-standing nature of U.S.-Brazil relations, which have often been characterized by what some describe as ‘benign neglect.’ Historically, both nations have coexisted peacefully, their relationship seemingly not requiring intense scrutiny.

Brazil and the United States share many similarities, including their status as large continental nations, histories shaped by colonization and a massive slave trade, and diverse federal governments.

The contemporary political scene in both countries has also seen parallels. Former president Jair Bolsonaro, a figure often compared to President Donald Trump due to his policies and brash demeanor, is currently facing charges for attempting to overturn a democratic process following protests that stormed the Brazilian capital building in January 2023.

Crandall explains that the new U.S. tariffs could reflect a desire to assert economic dominance, albeit in a unique context. Typically, tariffs are employed to address trade deficits, but in Brazil’s case, the U.S. enjoys a significant trade surplus.

While it might seem that the tariffs aim to undermine the administration of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, this interpretation oversimplifies the complexities of the situation. In 2019, President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Brazilian steel while Bolsonaro was in office, indicating that these new tariffs are not purely ideologically driven. Instead, they appear to be part of Trump’s broader approach to wielding economic pressure for geopolitical purposes.

The relationship between President Trump and Bolsonaro has been notably close, with Bolsonaro’s administration cultivating ties that mirror Trump’s philosophies. Bolsonaro’s son, Eduardo, has been residing in the United States since February, suggesting strong familial and political connections.

One of the more unusual aspects of the recent sanctions is their targeting of Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Moraes, who is overseeing the case against Bolsonaro. This is atypical, as such sanctions have generally been directed at individuals engaged in clear illicit activities, such as Venezuelan criminals or Russian oligarchs. The decision to sanction Moraes reflects a broader and perhaps more ambiguous definition of what constitutes illicit conduct.

The repercussions of these tariffs and sanctions on Brazilian domestic politics could be significant. Trump’s actions against Justice Moraes have the potential to energize Bolsonaro’s base, pushing them into a defensive posture against perceived foreign interference.

Conversely, these tariffs may serve to bolster Lula’s position, allowing him to attribute economic challenges to Trump and U.S. policy. Lula could leverage this situation to enhance his narrative of seeking national autonomy, drawing comparisons to narratives around the U.S. embargo against Cuba.

The current dynamics have created a politically polarizing atmosphere within Brazil, exacerbated by Trump’s actions and their impacts. Many Brazilians harbored a historical desire for autonomy and national sovereignty, particularly against perceived meddling from external powers.

In an ironic twist, the tariffs specifically target Brazil’s agricultural sector, which forms the foundation of Bolsonaro’s support. By impacting industries such as coffee, cattle ranching, and orange growing, the tariffs place Bolsonaro in a precarious position, prompting backlash even from his closest supporters and family members.

As the situation unfolds, the potential effects on Brazil’s political landscape will continue to be monitored closely, revealing the complex interplay between domestic politics and international relations.

image source from:davidson

Benjamin Clarke