Three months ago, billboards in New Delhi featured welcoming messages for U.S. Vice President JD Vance and advertisements for a new Trump property in the suburbs, highlighting a moment of optimism in U.S.-India relations. According to a spring 2025 Pew poll, India stood out as one of the few countries globally where U.S. favorability remained positive and where a majority expressed confidence in U.S. President Donald Trump.
However, the landscape of U.S.-India ties has swiftly changed, characterized by volatility and tension. While functional cooperation persists, recent developments, including President Trump’s announcement of a 50% tariff on Indian goods, pose a serious threat to bilateral relations. This unexpected move has triggered substantial public backlash within India, leading to confusion and frustration among former American policymakers who view targeting a partner as counterproductive.
The current situation marks one of the most challenging moments in India-U.S. relations since the late 1990s. Following India’s nuclear tests in 1998, the imposition of U.S. sanctions and joint criticism from China and the U.S. represented a low point. Today, divergences on multiple fronts—Pakistan, Russia, trade—coupled with complex personal and strategic dynamics, present an equally pressing challenge.
Historical Context of Friction
Following the reset of U.S.-India ties at the turn of the millennium, significant differences persisted. During the Bush administration, U.S. support to Pakistan conflicted with India’s interests, particularly concerning India’s relations with Iran. The Obama administration faced its own trials, including the highly publicized arrest of an Indian diplomat, alongside challenges in trade and climate negotiations. Under the Biden administration, tensions surged over the Russian invasion of Ukraine and allegations concerning the actions of an Indian government employee on U.S. soil.
In Trump’s previous term, India’s concerns were also ignited by sanctions against multiple countries, including Iran and Venezuela, which had implications for India’s foreign policy. Criticisms of Indian tariffs, mockery of India’s contributions to Afghanistan, and direct appeals to Pakistan for mediation only heightened tensions. The current backdrop of tariff announcements comes amidst ongoing negotiations, leaving many in India feeling blindsided.
Economic Implications and Public Sentiment
Trump’s tariffs, justified by claims about Indian imports of Russian oil, have raised eyebrows given the U.S. price cap policy that allows such imports and the lack of action against China’s similar dealings. The Indian public reacted strongly to Trump’s remarks branding India as having a “dead economy,” fostering animosity toward the U.S. administration.
On the economic front, the diverging approaches to business relations complicate the partnership. While the U.S. previously encouraged companies to leverage India’s market, recent shifts towards friendshoring and reshoring reflect a more cautious stance. Trump’s criticism of investments in India as part of corporate diversification strategies signals a dramatic shift from previous American policies.
India’s efforts to maintain its foreign policy autonomy are jeopardized by U.S. frustrations regarding partnerships with rival nations. Trump’s irritation towards the BRICS alliance and India’s engagement with Russia reinforces a perception in New Delhi that its diplomatic choices are being unjustly criticized.
Political Dynamics at Play
The strategic dimension of U.S.-India relations currently lacks a unifying force, primarily the shared stance against China. In previous years, a commonality in viewing China as a strategic threat bolstered cooperation between the two nations. However, within the current Trump administration, varying opinions on China complicate this alignement, with Trump pursuing potential détente with Beijing. This disconnect diminishes the motivation necessary to maintain steady relations or smooth over existing differences.
Trump’s personal sentiments may also be influencing his administration’s relations with India. His perceived grievances with Indian leadership, particularly contrasting their reactions to his diplomatic assertions, have created an atmosphere of uncertainty. The negative mood surrounding U.S.-India ties is further compounded by domestic skepticism towards American reliability in India, complicating the political landscape for Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Consequences for the Bilateral Relationship
If the downward trajectory continues, U.S.-India relations could face serious long-term consequences. Both countries have invested significantly in this partnership, driven by pragmatism and mutual benefit. A distancing of this relationship could unravel years of diplomatic efforts and cooperation.
Beyond bilateral dynamics, deteriorating ties will complicate both nations’ strategic positions globally. Calls within India to sever ties with the U.S. in favor of increased collaboration with Russia and China overlook critical realities, including the limitations within Russia and the complexities of Sino-Indian relations. A damaged partnership with the U.S. may leave India at a disadvantage in negotiations with China.
From the American perspective, a more autonomous India, free to align with Washington on key strategic issues, has proven beneficial. A disengaged New Delhi could become a liability, consequently undermining U.S. interests in the region and hindering American business endeavors.
Possible Pathways for Future Cooperation
The ongoing tensions could result in a series of escalatory measures between the two nations—further American tariffs, retaliatory actions from India, or increased U.S. military support for Pakistan might emerge as visible repercussions. Furthermore, Indian consumer responses—boycotts of American products—could exacerbate existing tensions, while canceling significant agreements could jeopardize defense collaborations.
Conversely, a return to a positive trajectory may be feasible if Trump reassesses his approach after achieving desired outcomes or if conditions regarding global alliances shift. Additionally, India could navigate the situation more diplomatically, balancing its need for respect and autonomy while offering concessions on sensitive economic issues.
Ultimately, the future of U.S.-India relations remains uncertain. Finding common ground requiring both nations to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes can be arduous, yet it remains essential for the efficacy of their partnership. Both sides must recognize the limitations of their negotiating positions to salvage this critical relationship.
image source from：brookings
