A recent analysis by Voice of San Diego and KPBS highlights the complexities behind housing production in California’s coastal cities, which, regardless of their political affiliations, have a reputation for resisting new housing.
However, it appears that the cities struggling the most to meet state-mandated housing goals are not the affluent ones, but rather those with blue-collar backgrounds.
Imperial Beach, for instance, has fallen behind the furthest with only 11 percent progress toward its housing objective.
The state requires cities to meet specific housing production targets during designated cycles. Currently, San Diego is in an eight-year housing cycle that began in 2021, and ideally, cities should be halfway to their goals by mid-cycle.
By the end of 2024, Imperial Beach approved permits for only 142 new homes, and alarmingly, it has not constructed any affordable housing units in that time frame.
City Manager Tyler Foltz explained that Imperial Beach is largely built-out, surrounded by the ocean, estuary, and bay, resulting in limited land for substantial development projects.
Consequently, the impetus for new construction often relies on private property owners to propose housing developments.
Though it is true that cities lacking vacant land are struggling to meet their housing obligations, the analysis reveals a more profound relationship between housing scarcity and local desirability—often linked to home pricing and land availability.
San Diego County, as a whole, is highly sought after due to its attractive job market, but the most new construction appears to occur where property values are highest or there is more open land.
For example, Encinitas stands closest to achieving its housing goal despite facing similar resistance to new home developments.
Over the years, persistent builders have litigated against Encinitas to force it to conform to state housing regulations.
When Encinitas eventually “upzoned” certain properties, builders seized the opportunity, leading to denser residential construction.
In contrast, developers in Imperial Beach, National City, and El Cajon might find it less financially appealing to acquire land for large projects, given the comparatively lower market prices in those cities.
Chula Vista, while not a high-rent area, is on track to meet its housing goals thanks to its abundance of available land.
However, economic factors and geography alone do not fully explain why some cities are falling short of their housing targets.
Escondido, which has a lower population density and affordable housing market, also finds itself considerably behind schedule.
Mayor Dane White of Escondido expressed his desire for more housing to attract young, educated families, but cited Proposition S as a significant obstacle.
Passed in 1998, Proposition S stripped the City Council of its ability to amend the General Plan for land-use decisions.
Now, any developer seeking to alter zoning for increased residential density must obtain approval from local voters, making it a risky venture for potential contractors.
White believed some state legislation mandating the approval of specific types of denser housing would override Proposition S, but state officials have indicated otherwise, insisting the city must adhere to its local ordinances.
Beyond Proposition S, White and other officials around the county contend that the housing goals set by state regulators are unrealistic.
The methodology behind how these housing targets are assigned comes from a statewide analysis, which designated San Diego County a requirement for 171,685 new homes between 2021 and 2029.
The San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) distributed this number among various cities, but the process has drawn significant controversy.
The allocation was largely based on two primary metrics: public transit accessibility and job distribution across the county.
About 65 percent of the overall allocation was linked to public transit, disproportionately benefiting larger urban areas like San Diego itself.
The remaining 35 percent reflected each city’s share of regional jobs.
Mayor Lesa Heebner of Solana Beach criticized the allocation process for being flawed and resulting in cities like hers facing inflated housing quotas.
Despite Solana Beach having only a fraction of Encinitas’s size, Heebner noted that the latter was assigned a lighter responsibility for housing development.
Some cities, such as National City, have similarly voiced their concerns, claiming their per capita housing assignments were astronomically high, leading to challenges in development and compliance.
Data from the analysis underscore trends where cities with higher population densities or greater per capita allocations show lower probabilities of meeting their housing goals.
There’s a stark contrast in housing construction progress, with only five cities on track to meet their overall housing targets; however, none are close to fulfilling the requirements for affordable housing.
Every city in San Diego County faces challenges in this latter area, indicating a failure to provide adequate options for low-income residents compared to higher-income housing developments.
In response to this deficiency, a new state law, SB 423, aims to ease the permitting process for developers in cities that fail to meet their affordable housing responsibilities.
Using a ministerial or bureaucratic review system, developers will have the option to bypass the usual approval mechanisms requiring City Council votes when seeking permits for housing projects.
The ongoing complexities and competing interests that govern housing development in San Diego County continue to reveal significant hurdles.
As the region grapples with a critical housing shortage, the analysis invites deeper discussions on how best to balance growth, community needs, and the local housing market.
image source from：voiceofsandiego
