As Hurricane Erin moves closer to the Eastern seaboard, its impact is already being felt, prompting evacuation orders and states of emergency in two counties in North Carolina.
The National Hurricane Center reported on Tuesday that Hurricane Erin was located 655 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C.
With maximum sustained winds of 105 mph and moving north-northwest at 10 mph, Erin has significantly weakened from its previous maximum of 140 mph on Monday.
However, forecasters are concerned that the storm will regain strength, potentially increasing in size.
While Erin is not expected to make landfall in the United States, it is projected to generate large waves ranging from 15 to 20 feet and possibly higher, leading to hazardous conditions along the coast.
A tropical storm warning is currently in effect for the Outer Banks, specifically from Beaufort Inlet to Duck, indicating that tropical storm conditions are anticipated within 36 hours.
In addition, the National Hurricane Center has issued a storm surge warning from Cape Lookout to Duck, with the agency cautioning about the life-threatening risk of inundation—estimated to be between 2 to 4 feet above ground level.
As of Tuesday evening, the islands of Hatteras and Ocracoke are under mandatory evacuation orders as authorities aim to ensure that residents leave before seawater overflows Highway 12, the primary roadway connecting prominent communities in the region.
Dare County Emergency Management Director Drew Pearson stressed the urgency of the situation by urging residents and visitors to comply with the evacuation order for their safety and the protection of their property.
The National Weather Service has cautioned that if water reaches low-lying areas, roads and vehicles could remain submerged for days.
From Florida all the way to Long Island, New York, there is a heightened risk of potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents, a risk that beachgoers are advised to consider before traveling along the East Coast.
Forecasts have adjusted Erin’s expected track further west, raising concerns about possible impacts on land.
Despite the decrease in wind speeds since the weekend when they reached 160 mph, the size of the storm remains a significant threat due to its large wind field, which can extend impacts far beyond the storm’s center.
Erik Heden, the warning coordination meteorologist in Morehead City, highlighted the size of Erin, stating, “It’s correct that the center of the storm is far out to sea, but remember, it is hundreds of miles across.”
According to the hurricane center, tropical-storm-force winds can extend up to 230 miles from its center, with hurricane-force winds reaching as far as 80 miles, increasing the risk of experiencing those winds onshore this week.
The hurricane center warns that their advisories might underestimate the risk of tropical-storm-force winds due to Erin’s larger-than-average wind field.
Matthew Janssen, a research assistant professor and engineer at the Stevens Institute of Technology, explained why the storm’s size can be more critical than wind speed.
He noted, “The size of the storm is correlated with higher storm surge levels across a larger area, which often leads to more severe impacts.”
The barrier islands of the Outer Banks, which are particularly susceptible to flooding, could see severe effects from Erin, especially since they can be as narrow as a thousand feet in some areas.
Expected waves between 15 to 20 feet could lead to dramatic coastal changes, including erosion and the reshaping of beaches, as outlined by experts.
Fortunately, Erin is positioned in a way that suggests it will avoid a direct hit on the U.S. coast, as it approaches from the side rather than making landfall.
The National Weather Service indicates that the storm will primarily affect coastal areas, while communities further inland may escape more serious consequences.
Nonetheless, both the NWS and experts caution that the considerable waves could still significantly alter coastal landscapes, washing over dunes and reshaping sandy shorelines.
Hurricane Erin marks the first storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which commenced in June. However, experts caution that this slow start should not lead to complacency.
Matthew Janssen indicated that despite a slower-than-expected season start, the prevalent view among experts is that while there may be fewer hurricanes overall, the storms that do form are likely to be more intense, particularly those classified as major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
Erin’s trajectory and intensity align with this perspective, demonstrating the potential dangers of future storms as climate change influences hurricane formation and impacts.
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