U.S. president Donald Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin have expressed a level of understanding and cooperation that is rare between the two infamously feuding governments.
Putin could use the United States to create a buffer against Chinese asymmetry.
As the United States pivots toward Russia under President Donald Trump, speculation is mounting that his strategy reflects a potential ‘reverse Kissinger.’
Rather than playing the China card to sow discord between two communist powers, as Kissinger allegedly did in the 1970s, Trump appears to be seeking to leverage the Russia card against China.
His strategy is to use the promise of restoring diplomatic relations to decouple Russia from China, thereby diminishing the strategic challenge that the Asian giant poses.
However, these assumptions regarding the potential for a U.S.-Russia rapprochement are largely fantasy.
Russia’s Positions Against the United States and Alongside China
Moscow has substantive strategic reasons to maintain close working relations with its dynamic neighbor, China.
Russia seeks to share in the economic vitality that China embodies, a commodity that Russia itself lacks.
Over the last fifteen years, China has emerged as Russia’s leading trading partner; in the light of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, it has also become the largest importer of Russian oil and natural gas.
Geopolitically, Moscow benefits significantly from maintaining tranquility along the extensive 4,000 km border with China, which has historically been a point of tension.
The Kremlin is unlikely to abandon these benefits for a relationship with the United States, and this status quo will likely persist beyond Trump’s presidency given the entrenched anti-Russian sentiments within the American foreign-policy establishment.
While Putin frequently boasts that relations with China have never been better, and he and Chinese President Xi Jinping discuss cooperating to forge a new global order, he is also keenly aware of the potential risks posed by China’s growth.
Putin must consider how a future Chinese leader might exploit the growing asymmetry in power and economic stability between the two countries to gain an advantage.
Measured in various ways, China’s economy currently stands five to nine times larger than the USSR’s GDP did in the early 1990s.
China has also overtaken Russia as a technological power, presenting stiff competition against the United States in fields such as artificial intelligence and robotics.
On the aerospace front, China is emerging as a superior space power while Russia finds itself lagging behind.
How Will Russia Keep Up with China?
In light of these changes, Russia requires a strategy to preserve its strategic autonomy.
In the short term, this would ensure deals made with China are not overly advantageous to the latter, as they tend to be today.
In the long term, Russia needs this hedge to safeguard itself against China’s potential shift from partnership to strategic rivalry.
Understanding this dynamic, Putin has voiced support for the BRICS alliance and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, where both Russia and China play key roles.
Putin’s aim is to enmesh China in a complex web of relations that may help suppress its more aggressive ambitions.
However, the stark reality is that Russia will be hard-pressed to cultivate a reliable hedge among the countries of the global south; their collective power simply pales in comparison to China’s formidable presence.
For better or worse, the United States stands as the only credible strategic hedge against Chinese dominance.
Just as Kissinger exploited the rift between the Soviet Union and China to advance U.S. interests, Putin could theoretically do the same with the United States and China.
Faced with an escalating rivalry between the United States and China, Putin would have much to lose and little to gain from exacerbating tensions between the two rival powers.
Aligning with the United States against China lacks strategic logic given the reasons previously outlined, while forging an ever-deepening partnership with China against the United States could significantly compromise Russia’s strategic autonomy.
Like Kissinger, Putin would have to navigate nuanced diplomacy that encourages both sides to seek stronger ties with Russia—playing on their mutual concerns regarding the consequences of a deepened Russian alignment with their counterpart.
Fortunately for Putin, Trump is inclined to normalize relations, which would mean he has to make fewer concessions to move closer to the United States than he would have during a Biden administration.
This reality is already manifesting in how Putin is leveraging Trump’s expressed desire for an early resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, aiming to gain U.S. backing for Russian objectives in relation to Ukraine.
The depth of this rapprochement with the United States and its effectiveness in rebalancing relations with China remain uncertain.
Trump’s ongoing commitment to normalization, coupled with some indications of unease within Beijing, suggests that Putin may be on a promising path if he is indeed emulating Kissinger’s strategic approach.
However, Putin must proceed with caution.
As was the case with Kissinger, a successful balancing act will necessitate that all involved parties derive some benefit from the shifting dynamics of their triangular relations.
Putin must therefore create conditions that allow the United States to advance some of its strategic interests through improved relations while simultaneously instilling a concern in China that a closer U.S.-Russia relationship could have negative repercussions for its own position, facilitating concessions from Beijing toward Russia.
This intricate diplomatic dance is particularly challenging for Russia, the weakest player among the three, but perhaps Putin has gleaned valuable insights from his numerous discussions with Kissinger since ascending to power.
image source from：https://nationalinterest.org/feature/could-putin-play-the-united-states-against-china
