AUSTIN, Texas — A new report from Texas’ power grid operator projects the Lone Star State will see energy demand more than double over the next five years.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) is a nonprofit corporation that operates the state’s power grid, which is isolated from the rest of the country’s two national grid systems.
Last week, ERCOT released an updated projection of electricity demand through 2031.
The report estimated a peak demand of 218 gigawatts by 2031.
For context, the current power demand record is 85.5 gigawatts, which was set back in August 2023.
Alongside the 218 gigawatt estimate, ERCOT also released an adjusted forecast that lowered the forecast substantially.
This adjusted forecast had peak energy demand in 2031 at 145 gigawatts, still well above the current record demand.
The lower number was calculated by slowing the amount of growth of large load projects, like data centers and crypto mines.
The largest percentage of projected energy demand growth in both forecasts was from data centers.
ERCOT defined data centers in this report as “facilities designed for cloud storage and computing.
They can also be designed for artificial intelligence training.”
This comes after ERCOT previously reported that demand could outpace power supply as early as 2026 in part because of data centers.
The infamous power grid operator has been in the headlines for years, starting back in February 2021 when a winter storm crippled the state’s electric grid and shut off power to millions of Texans for days on end.
The outages caused outrage as Texans pushed state leaders to make changes and prevent another statewide grid failure.
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has made figuring out how to account for the rising electric demand one of his legislative priorities.
Senate Bill 6, which unanimously passed in the upper chamber back in March, specifically deals with grid reliability and improvements to the state’s digital infrastructure, in hopes of keeping up with the increasing demand from large loads like data centers.
“The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) estimates load growth to total between 130 and 150 gigawatts of power by 2030.
ERCOT’s 2024 peak was about 86 gigawatts,” Patrick said in a statement after the bill passed.
“While this growth represents humungous economic opportunity for Texas, we must ensure our grid is prepared to manage this tremendous growth.”
Gov. Greg Abbott has touted the state’s work to bolster the electric grid, and he even gave the keynote address at the Texas Electricity Policy Summit in Houston.
“Every business here today needs one thing to operate: affordable, reliable power,” said Abbott.
“We are bolstering the grid to accommodate the ever-growing Texas population and our booming economy.
I have worked tirelessly with the Public Utility Commission, ERCOT, and our many power providers to ensure that every Texan has affordable, reliable power for generations to come.
Our work has ensured that since Winter Storm Uri, no Texan has lost power because of the state grid.”
Abbott specifically mentioned in his address Texas being the No. 1 state for wind energy and one of the top states for solar power, while also calling fossil fuel power the “backbone” of the grid.
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