International tourists are finding the United States a less inviting destination these days, largely due to President Donald Trump’s trade policies and negative rhetoric towards many nations around the globe.
This shift poses a significant economic threat, with projections from a Wall Street firm estimating that U.S. tourism revenue could plummet by as much as $90 billion this year, driven by decreased travel and product boycotts of U.S. goods.
Canada has experienced the most profound decline in tourism, attributed to Trump’s direct targeting of the country through trade restrictions and indirectly suggesting that Canada could become the ’51st state’ of the U.S.
Data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection indicates that visits from Canada have dropped by 12.5% in February year-over-year and 18% in March.
Western European visitors, another vital source of tourism for the U.S., have also decreased their travel, as reported by the National Travel and Tourism Office of the U.S. Commerce Department.
Countries such as the United Kingdom and Germany—historically reliable sources of visitors—have seen declines of as much as 29% in March alone.
Overall, there was a 12% decrease in Western European visitors in March, marking one of the most significant drops on record outside the pandemic.
Jan Freitag, senior vice president of lodging insights for STR Global and national director of hospitality analytics for CoStar Group, noted that multiple data sources indicate a slowdown in travel, and many anecdotes suggest it may be more severe than statistics show.
Trump’s tariffs on autos, auto parts, steel, and aluminum have directly affected Western allies.
Currently, European imports face a 10% duty, though he has temporarily paused a second round of tariffs on nations within the European Union.
Most items from Canada and Mexico have been exempted from the 25% duties Trump initially sought to impose on these nations.
Yet, despite these exemptions, negative sentiments toward the U.S. appear to be worsening, which is likely to carry economic implications for American residents.
Goldman Sachs analysts, in a recent note to clients, warned that under a worst-case scenario, the U.S. tourism industry could see a revenue loss of up to $90 billion this year, combining the effects of reduced travel with boycotts of U.S.-made products.
Their estimates suggest that foreign boycotts will impose a slight drag on U.S. GDP growth in 2025, primarily due to reduced international tourism.
They emphasized that this headwind, while small, adds to the existing negative impacts of tariffs and the drag on export growth, which have already influenced their GDP forecasts for the U.S.
Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, a subsidiary of Oxford Economics consultancy, stated that the negative feelings fostered by the Trump administration among longstanding allies may not dissipate quickly, even if the president alters his approach.
‘The damage has been done,’ Sacks remarked, adding that while there is potential to mitigate some fallout if Trump adopts a softer stance, rebuilding trust will take time.
Travel groups are reporting a significant drop in bookings, although certain U.S. tourism hubs, including Miami and Niagara Falls, claim that they have not yet observed major signs of a slowdown.
David Whitaker, president and CEO of the Greater Miami Convention & Visitors Bureau, noted that the full effect of the administration’s policies has largely fallen after Miami’s peak tourism season in winter and early spring, and that hotel bookings and room rates have remained stable for the time being.
However, he cautioned that some impact is still expected in the weeks to come.
‘Ask me again in May,’ he advised.
Similarly, Canadians recently flocked to a hockey game in New York against the Buffalo Sabres, according to John Percy, president and CEO of Destination Niagara USA.
While the exact impact on his city’s economy remains uncertain, any decrease in spending by visitors would reverberate through Western New York communities, reducing tax revenue vital for funding essential services such as police and fire departments.
‘We don’t realize the snowball effect,’ he said.
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