The Trump administration’s trade war with China is often viewed through the lens of economic implications, but experts argue that the broader consequences could be even more dire for American global authority.
Many economists warn that Trump’s aggressive trade policies may damage the long-term geopolitical alliances that the U.S. has nurtured over nearly a century.
President Trump believes that imposing steep tariffs will revitalize manufacturing jobs in the U.S., bringing them back from nations like China, Mexico, and Canada.
However, there are concerns that Trump’s drastic pivot from established trade norms, compounded by unpredictable policy announcements, could disrupt the global balance of power, potentially weakening the U.S.
According to Jason Furman, a Harvard Kennedy School professor and former chair of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, American dominance has historically relied on strong alliances rather than pure unilateral power.
As China’s economic and manufacturing capabilities have grown, the strength of U.S. dominance has increasingly hinged on these age-old partnerships.
While the U.S. economy rebounded strongly from the pandemic compared to other wealthy nations, its industrial landscape has significantly changed since the era when the U.S. was predominantly a manufacturing leader.
Furman points out that the relative size of the U.S. economy is now nearly comparable to China’s, raising critical questions about the foundation of American power.
Following World War II, the U.S. was instrumental in creating a rules-based international monetary framework, as demonstrated in the Bretton Woods agreement of 1944, aimed at promoting global stability.
Jayant Menon, a research fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, emphasizes the unprecedented nature of the swift changes occurring under the Trump administration, which stands in stark contrast to past norms.
The escalation of a global trade war, particularly between the two largest economies, could obstruct collaborative efforts on pressing global issues such as disease control, climate change, and security.
Furman warns that fewer mutual interests between the U.S. and China could have grave security implications, potentially lowering the costs of conflict while increasing the perceived benefits of war.
Stan Veuger, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, critiques the Trump administration’s tariff strategies, describing them as self-inflicted wounds and calling it an ’embarrassing implosion of the U.S.’
Veuger notes that ally reactions, particularly from Canada, reveal a sense of anger and disbelief at the U.S.’s conduct in international trade.
Despite the controversy, Trump’s supporters argue that seeking to rectify the trade imbalance with China is justified, asserting it will compel better trade negotiations that benefit American interests.
Nevertheless, the actual realization of such benefits remains uncertain, as some trading partners express outrage at Trump’s unpredictable behavior.
Many U.S. allies anticipated that Trump’s second presidential term would bring further disruptions, particularly concerning his rhetoric on Ukraine, Europe, and trade.
This expectation became a reality when, in February, Trump and Vice President JD Vance unexpectedly chastised Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, amid the ongoing Russian invasion.
Criticism from Trump to an ally whose nation is under siege raised eyebrows internationally, particularly given the stakes involved for global security.
However, some historians believe that reversing eight decades of historical alliances cannot happen in mere months, suggesting that the U.S. will still retain strong global partnerships.
Furman notes that while the U.S. may have enduring allies, countries will likely be less inclined to depend on the U.S. as they have in the past.
The long-term effects of the tariffs may prove difficult to reverse for future administrations as businesses adjust to the high-tariff landscape.
“Once you start down that path, it’s hard to change it,” Furman adds, emphasizing that the ramifications of these adjustments are significant.
Veuger foresees a grim short-term scenario where the U.S. may face a stock market plunge followed by a steep drop in investment, leading to what he describes as the ‘most unnecessary recession in living memory.’
In the longer perspective, he argues that America could diminish in centrality to the Western military alliance, prompting some nations to pivot toward China, particularly in economic affairs.
Recent reports indicate that the European Union is taking precautions by providing its top officials with burner phones before traveling to the U.S. due to security concerns.
Furman asserts, “That’s not a great place for friends to be.”
The future of the China-U.S. trade relationship remains uncertain; U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has identified China as a major contributor to U.S. trade challenges.
Bessent described China as the “most unbalanced economy in the history of the modern world” during comments to reporters, underscoring ongoing tensions.
In contrast, China appears to be capitalizing on the U.S.’s faltering alliances by positioning itself as a more reliable partner in global trade.
This week, President Xi Jinping is touring Southeast Asia to strengthen economic ties with nations like Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia, further showcasing China’s strategic maneuvering.
Menon highlights that countries in the region feel let down by the U.S. and are now compelled to seek alternatives to mitigate potential losses from strained relations with America.
While some nations may gravitate toward a China-centric alignment, Furman cautions against assuming that most countries will easily shift allegiances.
Instead, the tariffs are likely to promote fragmentation and a multipolar world, complicating the global order without a clear alternative to the Chinese model.
Menon is struck by the significant shift in global dynamics, especially as Xi emphasizes principles of openness and multilateralism in stark contrast to current U.S. policies.
image source from：https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2025-04-18/one-of-the-biggest-casualties-of-trumps-trade-war-us-global-alliances
