As the Big Island braces for varying weather conditions, a significant change in the forecast is on the horizon.
Tonight, residents in Hilo can expect mostly cloudy skies accompanied by scattered showers, with temperatures dipping to a low of 63 to 69 degrees near the shore and 50 to 56 degrees at elevations around 4000 feet.
Northwest winds are predicted to reach speeds of up to 10 mph, lending a slight chill to the air. The chance of rain sits at a moderate 50 percent.
On Friday, Hilo’s weather is expected to turn partly sunny with isolated showers making an appearance.
Daytime highs will range from 78 to 84 degrees near the shore, and 64 to 69 degrees at higher elevations.
Northeast winds could reach 15 mph, but the chances for rain decrease to 20 percent.
As night falls on Friday, partly cloudy skies will prevail with the potential for isolated showers.
Lows might hover around 62 to 69 degrees near the shore and drop to between 49 to 56 degrees at 4000 feet.
Winds will be light, transitioning to the north at speeds of up to 10 mph after midnight, while the chance of rain remains at 20 percent.
In Kona, the weather forecast reveals a similar pattern.
Tonight, the region can expect mostly cloudy conditions, with scattered showers and haze.
The temperature is set to fall to around 72 degrees near the shore and between 48 to 53 degrees near 5000 feet.
With light winds in effect, the chance of rain is also around 50 percent.
On Friday, Kona’s forecast denotes mostly cloudy skies, continuing the trend of scattered showers along with hazy conditions.
Highs will range from 83 to 88 degrees near the shore down to around 66 degrees near 5000 feet.
Light winds persist, and the chance of rain remains at 50 percent.
As darkness takes over on Friday night, the weather will turn mostly cloudy with scattered showers continuing amid hazy skies.
Low temperatures will resemble those of earlier in the week, around 72 degrees near the shore and close to 50 degrees near 5000 feet.
With light winds contributing to the conditions, the chance of rain stays steady at 50 percent.
Waimea is experiencing a slightly different weather pattern.
Tonight, expect mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers early in the evening.
Temperatures will drop to about 62 to 71 degrees near the shore and cool down to between 53 to 62 degrees at 3000 feet.
With east winds up to 15 mph, the chance of rain is lower at 20 percent.
On Friday, see mostly sunny conditions with the possibility of isolated morning showers.
Temperatures will peak around 80 degrees near the shore and between 70 to 78 degrees at higher elevations.
East winds will continue, reaching speeds of 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon while the chance of rain remains at 20 percent.
Friday night will bring partly cloudy skies accompanied by isolated showers; cool temperatures will prevail, ranging from 60 to 70 degrees near the shore and 52 to 61 degrees at higher elevations.
With east winds around 10 mph, the rain chance will still be at 20 percent.
The Kohala region closely mirrors Waimea’s weather pattern.
Initially, tonight’s forecast of mostly cloudy skies features isolated showers in the evening, with temperature lows ranging from 62 to 71 degrees near the shore and cooling down to 53 to 62 degrees at elevations of 3000 feet.
East winds at up to 15 mph contribute to the 20 percent chance of rain.
Friday brings mostly sunny skies with isolated morning showers; daytime temperatures will reach around 80 degrees near the shore and 70 to 78 degrees at 3000 feet.
East winds are again expected to be up to 15 mph.
Friday night returns with partly cloudy skies and the chance of isolated showers continuing, where lows are expected to fall between 60 and 70 degrees near the shore and from 52 to 61 at 3000 feet.
With light east winds, the rain chance will still register at 20 percent.
In South Big Island, conditions will vary from the rest.
Tonight, mostly cloudy skies will feature isolated showers coupled with haze throughout the night.
Temperature lows will be roughly around 73 degrees near the shore, dipping to about 52 degrees near 5000 feet.
Northeast winds could reach speeds of up to 15 mph, with a 20 percent chance of rain.
Friday looks to be partly sunny with scattered showers and ongoing haze, as daytime highs may rise to around 86 degrees near the shore and remain at approximately 64 degrees near 5000 feet.
East winds up to 15 mph are also expected, along with a 50 percent chance of rain.
By Friday night, expect mostly cloudy skies with scattered evening showers transitioning to isolated showers after midnight complete with haze.
Temperatures will be cool, hovering around 72 degrees near the shore and about 51 degrees near 5000 feet.
Northeast winds of 10 to 15 mph should help maintain a 40 percent chance of rain.
In Puna, weather conditions will closely follow those of Hilo.
Tonight’s skies will be primarily cloudy with scattered showers; temperatures are expected to fall between 63 to 69 degrees near the shore, cooling to 50 to 56 degrees at higher elevations.
Northwest winds could reach up to 10 mph, with a chance of rain at 50 percent.
On Friday, Puna will likely see partly sunny weather interspersed with isolated showers.
Highs will range from 78 to 84 degrees near the shore to around 64 to 69 degrees at higher elevations.
Northeast winds may match Kona’s at up to 15 mph, contributing to a lower rain chance of 20 percent.
As for Friday night, partly cloudy skies are expected with isolated showers continuing; lows will remain between 62 to 69 degrees near the shore and 49 to 56 at higher elevations.
Light winds are anticipated, changing to the north with speeds up to 10 mph after midnight, while the possibility of rain remains at 20 percent.
In Waikoloa, tonight’s forecast mirrors that of Kona with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers plus haze.
Low temperatures are expected to settle at around 73 degrees near the shore down to 51 to 56 degrees above 4000 feet.
With east winds reaching up to 15 mph, the chance of rain is anticipated to be 50 percent.
Friday features mostly sunny conditions, with scattered morning showers followed by isolated showers in the afternoon, all while keeping haze throughout the day.
Highs will attain a range between 83 to 90 degrees near the shore and 63 to 72 above 4000 feet.
North winds up to 15 mph will accompany a rain chance of 50 percent.
As night returns on Friday, partly cloudy conditions with scattered showers remain in the forecast; lows will drop around 72 degrees near the shore and between 49 to 55 degrees above 4000 feet.
Light winds are expected to persist with the rain chance remaining at 50 percent.
Analyzing the broader weather patterns, high pressure situated far to the northeast of the islands is expected to weaken over the next few days.
In response to this atmospheric shift, breezy trade winds will gradually ease into gentle to locally breezy winds as the weekend approaches.
A trough forming west of the islands early next week may further influence wind patterns, transitioning them towards the east-southeast.
Expect fair weather with typical night and morning trade wind showers, although there may be increased chances of afternoon showers especially as we move into early next week.
Current weather conditions showcase a strong surface high—approximately 1034 mb—remaining stationary nearly 1600 miles from Honolulu, generating breezy trade winds across the islands today.
The high has weakened slightly compared to prior days, resulting in slower trade winds.
A band of showers on the trades passed through late last night and into the morning, leaving behind a drier airmass with diminished shower activity heading upstream.
Recent soundings show an inversion around 7800 feet as well as PW slightly above normal levels.
Through the forecast period, subtle summertime changes are anticipated across the main Hawaiian Islands, with a good agreement among models predicting a reduction in the local pressure gradient and subsequently gentle to locally breezy trade conditions by Friday.
The forecast indicates that the prevalent trade winds will continue through the weekend.
Beginning Monday, a surface trough might develop near 170W, leading to an easing shift where local winds may change direction towards the east-southeast.
Despite this change, conditions will still be locally breezy, with many areas sheltered from background wind flow due to island terrain influences.
As the week progresses, a new large high will emerge far to the northeast, allowing for a return to breezy trade conditions by Thursday.
This weather pattern denotes a typical distribution of summertime trade wind showers expected over the next few days.
With developing mid-level troughing over the islands, moisture levels appear to remain close to the climatological average for June.
Light to moderate showers will typically favor windward and mauka areas during nighttime and morning hours.
For Monday and Tuesday, a mixed pattern of windward and mauka showers is expected in the mornings with a possibility of a few afternoon interior or leeward showers as low-level moisture slightly increases.
There is the potential to see showers additionally forming in the convergence downwind of Maui County within the evolving east-southeast flow, although specifics of this possibility are too early to detail in the forecast at this time.
A more traditional trade wind shower distribution should return by Wednesday as low-level moisture dwindles slightly.
Aviation forecasts show that moderate to locally breezy trade winds are set to continue through the evening, easing into Friday as the surface ridge to the northeast diminishes.
Batches of moisture channeled in by trade winds will continue to deliver brief showers to windward and mauka regions throughout this period.
MVFR conditions may occur during showers, but otherwise VFR conditions will remain dominant.
Currently, AIRMET Tango is in effect highlighting moderate turbulence persisting between 15,000 feet and 36,000 feet due to a jet streak located on the eastern side of an upper-level trough moving above.
This aviation alert is likely to remain in effect overnight and extend into tomorrow morning.
In addition, AIRMET Tango remains effective for low-level moderate turbulence over and immediately south through west of island mountains owing to moderate to breezy trade winds.
This AIRMET may likely be lifted later this afternoon or overnight as trade wind speeds decline.
Looking into marine conditions, traders across the ocean will experience moderate to locally strong winds that are anticipated to lessen tonight, evolving into gentle to fresh trades by Friday due to the weakening high pressure northeast of the state.
Gentle to fresh trades appear set to persist into early next week before re-strengthening as seasonal highs redevelop.
Furthermore, winds could shift slightly east-southeast early next week owing to a potential surface trough that is expected to develop west of the islands.
A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect; valid until 6 AM HST Friday, particularly for the Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, and the Big Island Leeward and Southeast Waters due to locally strong winds.
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