The recent Senate elections in the Philippines have resulted in surprising outcomes, raising alarms among observers of the country’s political dynamics.
Several candidates aligned with former President Rodrigo Duterte—whose administration had a favorable disposition towards China—have won important seats in the upper chamber of Congress.
Meanwhile, President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. has been steering the country toward a stronger bilateral security partnership with the United States since taking office in 2022.
The emergence of Duterte’s political bloc in the Senate complicates this trajectory and raises fears of potential disruptions to Philippine foreign policy going forward.
The Philippines has become a pivotal component of the U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific region.
Stronger defense cooperation, increased access for U.S. troops under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), and regular joint military drills have solidified the Philippines’ role as a key ally in countering China’s encroachments in the South China Sea.
In May 2023, the U.S.-Philippines Bilateral Defense Guidelines were established, reinforcing mutual commitments under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty in the event of armed attacks on either country’s forces in the Pacific, especially concerning disputed territories.
These guidelines also stress the need for collaboration among military branches, modernization of defense systems, and joint maritime patrols to address regional threats.
Currently, nine military bases in the Philippines are accessible to U.S. forces, including four additional bases identified just this year.
This arrangement strengthens deterrence against potential Chinese aggression, while also facilitating strategic positioning near Taiwan.
However, the recent Senate election results may undermine this alignment from within.
Vice President Sara Duterte, daughter of the former president and a significant political figure, is facing an impeachment trial set for July.
A conviction could lead to her removal from office and a ban on seeking any future political positions, including the highly contested 2028 presidential election.
Despite the impeachment proceedings, the election results have seemingly bolstered Duterte’s political standing, with five of the twelve newly elected senators being her allies, including Imee Marcos, sister of President Marcos Jr.
To avoid removal, Duterte requires at least nine senators to support her acquittal.
If Sara Duterte manages to navigate the impeachment trials successfully and enhances her influence in the Senate, it may signal a foreign policy pivot back towards China, thereby diminishing U.S. leverage in the region.
Beijing has historically exploited political unrest to extend its reach, focusing on economic investments and infrastructure projects within the Philippines.
Should Duterte’s faction regain substantial power, there could be renewed efforts to strengthen ties with China, posing challenges for U.S. strategy aimed at countering aggression in the Indo-Pacific.
During her father’s presidency, territorial disputes in the South China Sea were largely downplayed, with the focus on economic collaboration with China rather than enforcing international rulings against it.
Duterte’s government also pursued billions in investment pledges from China for infrastructure under its Belt and Road Initiative, though many promised projects failed to materialize, leaving the economy susceptible while China expanded its military presence in contested waters.
The former administration’s strategy created uncertainty surrounding the Mutual Defense Treaty and U.S.-Philippines military collaboration.
If Sara Duterte survives the Senate proceedings and consolidates power, it could signal a restoration of the Duterte dynasty, potentially creating a precarious scenario for U.S.-Philippine relations—especially leading up to the 2028 elections.
For the United States, these developments carry significant implications, as a continuation of Duterte family leadership could jeopardize military agreements, limit U.S. access to critical bases, and hinder counter-efforts against Chinese advances.
image source from：https://www.heritage.org/global-politics/commentary/how-the-philippine-senate-elections-could-affect-us-national-security
