The recent federal intervention in Los Angeles raises questions about its implications for the upcoming governor’s race in Virginia, echoing a similar event from 1957.
In that pivotal year, President Dwight Eisenhower deployed the 101st Airborne Division to Little Rock, Arkansas, to enforce school integration.
As events unfolded, a Republican candidate, Ted Dalton, experienced a significant setback in his bid against the entrenched political machine of Virginia under Senator Harry Byrd.
Dalton, who had previously come close to winning a governorship four years prior, faced the steep challenge of public backlash in the aftermath of the Little Rock crisis.
The intervention, which was deeply unpopular among white voters in Virginia, resulted in a landslide defeat for Dalton, who lamented, “Little Rock knocked me down to nothing. It wasn’t a little rock; it was a big rock.”
Fast forward to 2025, and we find ourselves contemplating how a similar federal response to a crisis in Los Angeles might influence the race between Democrats Abigail Spanberger and Winsome Earle-Sears.
The central question remains: who will Virginians hold accountable for the chaos in Los Angeles? Is it a matter of President Donald Trump fabricating a crisis, as California Governor Gavin Newsom suggests, or do individuals perceive Trump as responding to an ongoing emergency?
Unlike the immediate aftermath of the Little Rock incident, the current political climate does not yet show comprehensive polling data reflecting public sentiment.
However, two recent Roanoke College polls provide insight into the political landscape as recent events unfold.
Interestingly, the findings of these polls appear contradictory when placed against the backdrop of the recent crisis.
Firstly, President Donald Trump’s popularity in Virginia seems to be waning significantly.
Historically, Trump has struggled in Virginia, consistently losing the state in presidential elections.
The latest Roanoke College data from May illustrates a clear decline in Trump’s approval, with disapproval rates climbing from 56% in October 2020 to 65% by May 2023.
Such rising discontent among Virginians raises the question—will this lead to greater resentment towards Trump regarding the events in Los Angeles?
Secondly, the same Roanoke College poll also marked a significant trend regarding Virginians’ views on immigration.
In a survey conducted in February, while a majority (59%) expressed disapproval of Trump, the same percentage also supported increased deportations—one of Trump’s hallmark policies.
While individuals may have differing opinions on Trump himself, their stances on his immigration policies appear more varied and complex.
The poll indicated an unexpected finding; 41% of self-identified Democrats approved of increasing deportations—a statistic that contrasts sharply with the prevailing sentiments expressed by Democratic officeholders.
This suggests that there exists a notable segment of Democratic voters who may not fully align with the immigration narrative typically promoted by their party.
Participants in February also revealed that 54% of independents supported heightened deportations, despite their general disapproval of Trump.
This raises a critical question: do these independent voters still align with these views as events transpire in Los Angeles?
The implications for both parties are significant.
For Democrats, the challenge lies in addressing a large portion of the electorate that may endorse deportation policies, potentially punishing candidates like Spanberger if they misinterpret public sentiment.
Conversely, Republicans may find themselves in a precarious situation if Virginians’ existing aversion to Trump becomes more pronounced due to the current crisis, leading them to distance themselves from any Republican candidates.
Moreover, the current political polarization could lead to minimal shifts in voter sentiment, indicating that the events in Los Angeles may not influence the Virginia governor’s race as starkly as those in Little Rock did in 1957.
Ultimately, as we approach both future polling and the competitive election in November, it remains to be seen how public sentiment will evolve in response to these national events.
Will the lingering effects of the Los Angeles intervention shape voter attitudes in Virginia, or will the deeply entrenched party loyalties endure regardless of external crises?
As the election date draws nearer, observers will be keenly watching for any shifts in public opinion that could indicate how these historical parallels might manifest in contemporary politics.
image source from：https://cardinalnews.org/2025/06/10/who-does-the-unrest-in-los-angeles-hurt-most-politically-heres-what-history-and-polls-tell-us-about-virginia/
