New York City is increasingly at risk of various public health crises, with flooding identified as the most pressing threat, according to a new report from the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene.
This assessment was required by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and highlights the growing dangers posed by rising sea levels and more intense storms, which threaten the city’s coastlines and low-lying neighborhoods.
In contrast to the previous report released in 2018, which identified a respiratory virus with pandemic potential as the most severe threat and excessive heat as the most likely threat, the current analysis now emphasizes flooding as the most probable danger.
While another pandemic is cited as the highest risk in terms of severity, the report indicates that flooding presents an immediate threat to the city and its inhabitants.
Flooding incidents in New York City have become more frequent in recent years. In the fall of 2021, heavy rainfall and floodwaters from Hurricane Ida resulted in the tragic drowning of 13 residents, with 11 victims found in basement apartments.
More recently, in 2023, flash floods wreaked havoc across the city, necessitating multiple rescue operations for individuals trapped in vehicles and flooded dwellings.
Dr. Victoria Lynch, a postdoctoral research fellow at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, notes that frequent and intense floods are a national concern linked to atmospheric warming.
As warmer air holds more water vapor, it can quickly condense, leading to severe rainfalls, Lynch explains. New York City, along with other U.S. coastal regions, is particularly vulnerable to the effects of rising sea levels.
The projections for tidal flooding in the 2020s suggest that areas such as Brooklyn Bridge Park and the Coney Island boardwalk will be affected significantly.
Looking ahead to the 2080s, the flood risk is expected to worsen, exposing low-lying areas such as the Rockaways and LaGuardia Airport to increased high tide flooding.
In the event of a coastal storm later this century, the impacts on the city could be substantial, with vast parts of southeast Brooklyn, downtown Manhattan, and various regions in Staten Island, Queens, and the Bronx at risk of inundation.
Flooding poses dangerous risks to human life, as detailed in a study published in Nature Medicine, which examined flood-related mortality in the United States from 2001 to 2018.
The findings indicate that floods are linked to increased death rates across various causes, often continuing for months after the flooding event.
During the month of a flood, significant rain-related floods were found to elevate death rates from cardiovascular and infectious diseases.
In the month after a flood, rates of injury-related and infectious disease-related deaths rose, while respiratory disease mortality increased two months post-flood.
For tropical cyclones, researchers noted another spike in injury death rates within the month of a severe flood, along with rising rates of injury and infectious disease deaths in the following month.
“These are massive shocks to the system that can affect individuals and impact families and communities,” Dr. Lynch comments.
According to the Health Department’s findings, certain neighborhoods will struggle more than others to recover from significant coastal storms.
This assessment was made using criteria that looked at geographic vulnerability to flooding and local communities’ capacities to mitigate harm, maintain access to essential services, and restore access to employment, housing, food, and healthcare.
Neighborhoods deemed least prepared for recovery after a major coastal storm include Sheepshead Bay, Rockaway Beach, East Harlem, Soundview, and Throgs Neck.
To address these flooding risks, the report recommends implementing several measures, such as utilizing backwater valves to prevent sewer backups, establishing rain gardens to absorb stormwater and reduce runoff, and fostering community stewardship of green spaces for better stormwater management.
Eliza Fawcett, a reporter for Healthbeat, covers public health in New York City.
For more information, contact Eliza at [email protected].
image source from：https://www.thecity.nyc/2025/06/16/flooding-health-risk-public-climate-change/
