Election day in Virginia marks a significant moment as the state prepares for a pivotal election year ahead of the November polls, where voters will select the next governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, and fill all 100 seats in the lower house of the legislature.
With a keen eye on the evolving political landscape, Virginians are poised to weigh in on how the Trump administration’s policy decisions are impacting the commonwealth ahead of the crucial 2026 midterms.
The major-party candidates for governor have been determined, with both Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat and former representative of Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, and Winsome Earle-Sears, the Republican lieutenant governor, unchallenged in their primaries.
Political analysts suggest that while the race currently leans Democratic, potential opportunities emerge for Earle-Sears amid the changing sentiments in this purple-ish state.
Virginia swung slightly to the right in the 2024 elections, but Kamala Harris still won the state by a six-point margin. Trump’s increased support in the suburbs outside of Washington, D.C., a region now notably influenced by the administration’s cuts to the federal workforce, has played a significant role in this shift.
The ability of Earle-Sears to solidify suburban support, or Spanberger’s capacity to harness voter discontent over Trump’s contentious federal policies, could prove decisive in the upcoming electoral battle.
Irrespective of the outcome, November will mark a historic moment for Virginia, as the commonwealth’s 75th governor will be the first woman to take office in this role.
Spanberger, age 45, began her political journey with Moms Demand Action, a national gun safety organization.
At a recent event in Alexandria, Virginia, she shared her early experiences with the group, sparking enthusiasm among the gathered supporters wearing red t-shirts.
Spanberger articulated her commitment to signing laws that ban high-capacity magazines and ghost guns, as well as measures that restrict firearm access for individuals with domestic violence convictions—legislation successfully passed in recent years by a Democratic majority in the Virginia General Assembly but vetoed by Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin.
Using her unique background as a federal agent and former CIA officer, Spanberger positions herself as pro-law enforcement, arguing that gun restrictions are necessary for public safety.
Two local sheriffs have endorsed her candidacy, further bolstering her profile as a moderate politician who has consistently emphasized issues such as fentanyl overdoses, veterans’ concerns, and agricultural policies.
While Spanberger typically aligns with Democrats, she has also displayed an independent streak, notably criticizing the Biden administration’s ambitious plans for the Build Back Better Act and withholding her support for Nancy Pelosi in 2019.
She secured her congressional seat in a competitive contest in 2018 and has navigated her tenure amid Trump’s presidency across two additional elections.
The Trump administration’s reductions to the federal workforce resonate with many of the over 300,000 federal employees living in Virginia, as well as the private companies reliant on federal contracts.
The full ramifications of these federal cuts for Virginia are still evolving, with state revenues appearing stable through the early months of 2023, according to Youngkin administration reports.
In addition to her focus on opposing Trump, Spanberger is emphasizing her bipartisan credentials as a pathway to victory. Her campaign has recently spotlighted policies centered on affordability concerning housing, energy, and prescription drugs.
Spanberger expressed her goals in an interview with NPR, stating, “I’m standing up for Virginians against harmful policies while also presenting a comprehensive plan for the future, especially regarding potential negative impacts resulting from the Trump administration.”
On the other side of the race, Winsome Earle-Sears, aged 61, positions herself as a counter to Spanberger’s moderate image. Earle-Sears criticizes Spanberger for her support of the George Floyd Justice In Policing Act, which aimed to simplify the process for suing police officers for misconduct while opposing the Laken Riley Act mandating the detention of certain undocumented immigrants.
Earle-Sears claims, “My opponent voted to allow criminal, illegal aliens to remain in this country. Why would she support such a thing? We’re talking about serious crimes like rape and murder being permitted in Virginia.”
Earle-Sears highlights her identity as an immigrant from Jamaica, a former Marine, and a business owner as evidence of her connection to the American dream. As the first Black woman elected to statewide office in Virginia, she has the potential to make history as the nation’s first Black female governor.
She positions herself as a natural successor to Governor Youngkin, who has maintained strong approval ratings through a focus on business growth and tax reduction, despite widespread rejections of Trump in previous elections.
At a campaign event, Earle-Sears proclaimed, “Freedom means you keep as much of your earnings as possible.”
She has vowed to eliminate the local car tax, a significant issue of concern among Virginians. While Youngkin previously proposed a tax rebate program that met with opposition from Democrats worried about potential funding stemming from Trump’s federal cuts, Earle-Sears maintains that Virginia has the resources to implement such a change.
Although Spanberger has indicated a willingness to work towards ending the car tax, she has not asserted that the state currently possesses the financial means to do so.
Earle-Sears expresses confidence in Virginia’s economy, arguing that it remains stable following four years of Republican leadership. While she acknowledges the reality of job loss, she points to robust social support systems such as health insurance and unemployment funds as safety nets for those in transition.
Firmly backing Trump’s aggressive cuts to federal spending, Earle-Sears claims that many citizens—including Democrats—are increasingly frustrated with how their tax dollars are utilized by the federal government.
She stated, “There’s been waste, fraud, and abuse in government spending, and I hear from the American people who are wondering why their money is being allocated to what many deem unjust causes.”
Democrats have responded with critiques of Earle-Sears’ approach to federal cuts, arguing it neglects the potential adverse effects on Virginia’s economy.
They are also emphasizing her socially conservative stance on issues like abortion and marriage equality, within a Southern state that currently does not impose restrictions on abortion access.
Earle-Sears, against abortion rights and probation for the use of certain reproductive health services, initially endorsed a six-week ban and has since leaned toward Youngkin’s push for a 15-week restriction.
Earlier this year, as president of the Virginia Senate, Earle-Sears signed a measure commencing a reproductive rights amendment process for the state constitution, albeit voicing her moral opposition alongside her signature.
Political analysts currently view the gubernatorial race as leaning Democratic, partly due to Virginia’s historical pattern of electing governors from the opposition party of the sitting president.
The Trump factor is viewed as particularly advantageous for Spanberger’s campaign as she determines how to navigate the sentiments of federal employees—a demographic notably antagonized by the Trump administration.
According to political analyst J. Miles Coleman from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, the race is characterized as “Leans Democratic,” with early polling from various institutions indicating a consensus on this assessment.
Spanberger’s campaign also boasts a notable financial advantage, having raised nearly $23 million in comparison to Earle-Sears’ $9.2 million.
However, a recent study by a Republican-affiliated research firm signals potential openings for Earle-Sears, especially in crafting economic narratives that address voter concerns.
The group remarked that political dynamics in Virginia are more fluid than previously believed, suggesting economic pressures may be altering voter priorities in a way that might benefit Republicans.
Despite the traditional wisdom that Virginia would remain solidly blue, high rates of undecided voters indicate a potentially unpredictable electorate as the general election approaches.
A victory for Spanberger could offer national Democrats a crucial boost following recent electoral setbacks, allowing them to reshape their identity beyond mere opposition to Trump and achieving a tangible win in the gubernatorial race prior to the 2026 midterms.
image source from：https://www.npr.org/2025/06/16/nx-s1-5432629/virginias-governors-race-could-be-a-barometer-for-how-voters-feel-about-trump
