As tensions escalate in the Middle East, Israel’s continued military actions against Iran have prompted a tougher response from global leaders, including US President Donald Trump.
Trump has ramped up threats against Iran’s Supreme Leader, warning of military action against Iran’s nuclear sites and labeling the leader an ‘easy target.’
Amid these threats, Trump is demanding ‘unconditional surrender’ from Iran, reflecting a stark shift in the landscape of international relations surrounding the Islamic Republic.
Countries like Germany, Canada, the UK, and Australia have also amplified their rhetoric, insisting that Iran must fully abandon its nuclear program.
This mounting pressure raises the question of whether Iran is left to defend itself alone, or if it can still count on allies in a time of need.
Historically, Iran has cultivated a network of paramilitary groups in the Middle East as a deterrence strategy, often referred to as the ‘axis of resistance.’
This alliance includes influential groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq, Houthi militants in Yemen, and Hamas in Gaza.
These entities have functioned as a buffer for Iran against direct military assaults by the US or Israel, despite the ongoing threats.
However, recent developments indicate that this support network has suffered significant setbacks.
Hezbollah, once considered Iran’s most potent non-state ally, has faced substantial challenges due to ongoing Israeli operations, which have systematically targeted its weapon stockpiles across Lebanon.
The organization has also experienced a major strategic loss with the assassination of its influential leader, further diminishing its effectiveness as an ally of Iran.
In Syria, Iranian-backed militias have been largely pushed out in the wake of the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, a crucial seat of Iranian influence.
Despite these challenges, Iran continues to maintain its foothold in Iraq and Yemen.
The PMF, comprising an estimated 200,000 fighters in Iraq, remains a formidable force, while the Houthi movement similarly boasts a sizable military presence in Yemen.
In the event of an existential threat to Iran, particularly as the sole Shiite-led state in the region, there is a likelihood that these groups could respond actively in defense of Iran.
Such a scenario could swiftly escalate the conflict across the region.
Leaders of the PMF, for example, have threatened to launch attacks against over 2,500 US troops stationed in Iraq, should the US intervene militarily.
The head of Kata’ib Hezbollah, a faction within the PMF, stated, ‘If America dares to intervene in the war, we will directly target its interests and military bases spread across the region without hesitation.’
Additionally, Iran has the capability to strike US bases located in the Persian Gulf using ballistic missiles, further complicating the regional security landscape.
The critical question now is whether Iran’s regional and global allies will take action.
Among those regional powers, Pakistan stands out, being the only Islamic nation with a nuclear arsenal.
In light of the escalating situation, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has sought to deepen ties with Pakistan to counteract Israeli actions in Gaza.
In a significant indicator of this alliance, Trump recently met with Pakistan’s army chief, further highlighting the potential impact of Pakistan on the conflict.
Pakistani officials have expressed strong solidarity with Iran, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif offering unwavering support against ‘Israel’s unprovoked aggression.’
While Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif emphasized that Israel would think ‘many times before taking on Pakistan,’ the country’s overall stance has aimed at both solidarity and de-escalation.
Simultaneously, Iran has made efforts to mend fraught relationships with previously adversarial regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
These diplomatic efforts have fostered broader regional support, as almost two dozen Muslim-majority countries have united in condemning Israel’s actions and advocating for de-escalation.
Yet, the likelihood of military material support from these regional powers, such as Saudi Arabia or Turkey, remains low due to their strong ties with the US.
On the global stage, Iran can count on allies like Russia and China, who have both condemned Israel’s military strikes.
Historically, these nations have provided Iran with some degree of protection from punitive measures at the UN Security Council.
However, neither Russia nor China seems ready at this moment to escalate the conflict further by providing direct military support to Iran, especially given their own geopolitical priorities.
Moscow, for instance, remained uninvolved when Assad’s regime crumbled in Syria, signaling a degree of caution.
With Russia focused on its commitments in Ukraine, and aiming to maintain good relations with the Trump administration, it is unlikely to risk confrontation over Iran.
In conclusion, while Iran still has some support from paramilitary groups and certain regional powers, the prospect of an all-out conflict remains precarious, with military alliances appearing more restrained and diplomatic attempts at de-escalation taking precedence over outright intervention.
image source from：theconversation
