Iran has developed a complex military infrastructure over several decades, specifically designed to deter potential aggression from the U.S. With the recent U.S. involvement in Israel’s conflict, experts warn that Iran may now feel compelled to unleash its military capabilities that have largely remained in reserve.
This shift could lead to intensified attacks against U.S. forces stationed throughout the Middle East, attempts to disrupt global oil supply chains, or hastened efforts to advance Iran’s already controversial nuclear program following U.S. airstrikes on critical sites.
The decision to retaliate against U.S. forces may present Iran with a broader range of targets significantly closer than Israel, thereby leveraging its missile and drone technology more effectively. Despite the U.S. and Israel’s advanced military capabilities, past military interventions in the region have demonstrated that superior technology does not necessarily guarantee decisive outcomes.
Following Israel’s military strikes against Iranian positions and nuclear facilities, initiated on June 13, Iranian officials have consistently warned the U.S. against intervention, indicating that such involvement could have severe ramifications for the entire region.
The coming days will reveal whether these warnings were mere posturing or a genuine forecast of impending military action.
One primary area of concern is the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway through which about 20% of the world’s oil is shipped. At its narrowest point, the strait measures just 33 kilometers (21 miles) wide, and any disruptions here could significantly spike global oil prices and impact the American economy.
Iran possesses a fleet of fast-attack vessels and a variety of naval mines capable of obstructing this vital trade route. Furthermore, Iran could launch missile strikes from its extensive coastline along the Persian Gulf, a tactic previously employed by its allied Houthi rebels targeting vessels in the Red Sea.
While the U.S. maintains its 5th Fleet nearby in Bahrain, pledging to protect freedom of navigation in the strait, even a brief skirmish could paralyze maritime shipping and lead to heightened economic concerns, prompting calls for a ceasefire.
Additionally, Iran could target U.S. military bases and allied nations in the Middle East, where tens of thousands of U.S. troops are stationed at bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates—locations much closer to Iran than Israel.
Although these bases are equipped with sophisticated air defense systems, they would likely have less time to prepare for a barrage of missiles or drone swarm attacks. Israel itself, despite its advanced defenses and geographical advantage, has struggled to intercept all incoming threats.
Iran might also consider attacking vital oil and gas infrastructure within those Gulf nations to impose a steep price for American military engagement in the conflict. For instance, a drone strike in 2019—commonly attributed to Iran—temporarily halved Saudi Arabia’s oil production.
Involving regional allies remains another potential strategy for Iran. Despite suffering significant setbacks recently—including a loss of leadership and resources—Iran’s Axis of Resistance, consisting of various militant factions across the Middle East, still retains considerable capabilities.
Amidst the ongoing skirmishes, Iran might activate groups such as the Houthis, who have threatened renewed hostilities in the Red Sea contingent upon U.S. entry into the conflict, as well as militias in Iraq that possess drone and missile capabilities for targeting U.S. interests.
Furthermore, Iran could launch actions further afield, potentially invoking tactics similar to those employed in the 1990s, such as the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Argentina, an act infamously associated with Tehran and Hezbollah.
Another area of concern is the potential escalation of Iran’s nuclear program. The ramifications of U.S. military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities may not become fully apparent for days or even weeks. Experts have cautioned that military action by the U.S. and Israel may only delay Iran’s nuclear ambitions rather than completely eliminate them, given that the Islamic Republic has strategically dispersed its nuclear activities across multiple sites, including fortified underground facilities.
While the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes would hinder Iran’s ability to make unfettered progress on its nuclear capabilities, Iran could decide to halt its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty entirely.
This course of action might mirror North Korea’s decision to exit the treaty in 2003, which ultimately paved the way for its first nuclear test in 2006. Unlike North Korea, however, Iran insists that its nuclear program is civilian in nature, despite being the only non-nuclear-armed state to enrich uranium to levels approaching weapons-grade.
U.S. intelligence assessments, alongside those from the IAEA, affirm that Iran has not operated a formal military nuclear program since 2003. Nevertheless, it remains widely acknowledged that Israel is the sole nuclear-armed state in the Middle East, even as it does not officially acknowledge its nuclear arsenal.
Whether Iran will retaliate in a significant capacity, and how the U.S. and its allies will respond, remains an urgent question for the region and the world at large.
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