In a surprising twist ahead of New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary, an independent opinion poll has predicted that 33-year-old Zohran Mamdani would defeat 67-year-old Andrew M. Cuomo. This marks the first time in the race that Mamdani is projected to win over Cuomo, who has held a double-digit lead in previous polls.
The poll, released on Monday by Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill, reveals a tight race with Mamdani expected to prevail with 51.8% compared to Cuomo’s 48.2% in ranked choice voting. The close margin of just 3.6% falls within the margin of sampling error, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the outcome.
According to Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, Mamdani has seen a dramatic increase in support, rising from 1% five months ago to 32% in the latest poll. In contrast, Cuomo’s support has remained consistent since he entered the race. The ranked-choice simulation indicates that Mamdani gains 18 points while Cuomo adds only 12, allowing Mamdani to surge ahead in this final round for the first time in an Emerson poll.
When asked about their support, 35% of respondents favor Cuomo, while 32% back Mamdani, a socialist assemblyman from Astoria, Queens. Despite Cuomo’s past scandals and resignation as governor, he maintains a significant presence in the race.
The ranked-choice voting system allows voters to list their top five preferences, and should no candidate exceed 50% of the vote in the initial round, the lowest-placed candidates are eliminated. The Emerson poll suggests that Mamdani would emerge victorious in the eighth round of this process. The survey, conducted between Wednesday and Friday, engaged around 800 likely voters.
In addition to Mamdani and Cuomo, Brad Lander, the city comptroller, has garnered 13% support. Lander and Mamdani have cross-endorsed each other, signaling a potential alliance. Other candidates in the race, including city council speaker Adrienne Adams, former comptroller Scott Stringer, and state senator Zellnor Myrie, each receive support in the single digits.
If elected, Mamdani would be among the youngest mayors in recent New York City history, contrasting sharply with Cuomo, who would be the oldest.
Notably, the poll indicates that voters under 50 strongly favor Mamdani, preferring him by a 2 to 1 margin. Meanwhile, Cuomo leads among voters in their 50s and those over 60, obtaining 63% to 37% and 56% to 44%, respectively. When looking at gender demographics, men support Mamdani while women lean towards Cuomo, with the former attracting 56% and the latter obtaining 52%.
Mamdani’s momentum is impressive, as his campaign has surged despite polling in the single digits earlier this year. Concurrently, millions of dollars have been funneled into pro-Cuomo super PACs in recent weeks, enhancing his campaign resources, although these PACs remain unaffiliated with his campaign.
Early voting for the primary began on June 14 and concluded on Sunday, with primary day set for Tuesday. The winner of the primary will advance to the general election on November 4. Both Mamdani and Cuomo devoted the day before the primary to campaigning. Early voting turnout is reportedly twice that of the previous mayoral primary in 2021, which saw Eric Adams victorious. Although Adams is not running in this primary, he is contesting the general election as an independent.
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