As wildfire season approaches in the United States, the National Weather Service (NWS), the government agency responsible for providing essential weather forecasts and warnings for firefighting and emergency response teams, finds itself struggling with significant budget cuts and staff shortages.
Under President Donald Trump’s administration, the NWS has seen a reduction of approximately 600 staff due to job cuts, buyouts, and voluntary retirements.
This decrease in personnel poses a serious challenge, particularly as the U.S. Southwest and Northwest confront extreme wildfire conditions exacerbated by low winter rainfall and intense heat waves projected for the summer.
Alex Tardy, a former NWS warning coordination meteorologist, emphasizes the increasing need for NWS services by federal, state, and local fire departments in this challenging environment.
Many NWS offices in the western United States are currently functioning with only about half of their normal staff.
Tardy, who took voluntary retirement from the San Diego NWS office in May, noted, “We weren’t fully staffed to begin with, and when you already are short people, that’s the big fear this year. This all has a trickle-down effect from top to bottom.”
Given the significant risks of wildfires this year, Tardy highlights the grim reality: “You hope there’s going to be no fires and no hurricanes, but in reality we know that’s not going to be the case. We’re going to have a lot of wildfires if the forecast is anywhere close.”
When wildfires become large and uncontrollable, emergency management teams comprising federal, state, and local firefighting departments request an incident meteorologist (IMET) from regional NWS offices.
IMETs are specialized meteorologists who have undergone two years of additional training.
They volunteer to travel to command posts near fires, providing real-time weather forecasts essential for emergency responders.
However, experts are raising alarms about the shortage of IMETs available this year.
Jim Whittington, a retired public affairs officer from the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), asserts, “I’m really worried about the IMET situation this year. They’re absolutely critical because they’re essentially giving you those spot forecasts for the entire fire constantly.”
Currently, the NWS has about 90 IMETs available out of a total staff of approximately 2,900 following recent cuts, but many of these specialists are not consistently available due to sick leave, vacations, and other time off.
Tardy explained that while there are technically 90 IMETs, the actual number accessible during peak wildfire events is often closer to 20.
This shortfall can be particularly detrimental during a busy fire year when multiple large wildfires may erupt simultaneously across numerous states.
For instance, the Sacramento NWS office was found to be short by at least seven meteorologists as of May.
With IMET assignments pulling experienced staff from already understaffed offices, the remaining employees may face overwhelming workloads, leading to increased burnout and further resignations.
In additional troubling developments, the Trump administration also cancelled this year’s IMET training earlier in the year.
This cancellation means a critical reduction in the pipeline for new IMET specialists and also affects the recertification of existing meteorologists.
As Tardy noted, “Cancelling training like that is huge. There’s really no true substitute… these are integral, critical components to making sure our meteorologists are trained and safe.”
Wildfires in the U.S. can cost an average of $6.2 billion, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information.
With climate change intensifying wildfire occurrences, the term “fire season” is becoming increasingly obsolete.
Whittington noted that the BLM is now managing wildland fires year-round, stating, “We’re trying to get away from fire season and talk about fire years.”
He added, “From our perspective, it all rolls into one. We are having a longer period where we have large fires on the landscape. That’s starting earlier, and that’s ending later.”
While the western states brace for wildfires, the eastern half of the country is preparing for the hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November.
In early June, the NWS announced plans to recruit 125 new personnel after forecasts predicted an above-normal hurricane season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates that as many as 10 hurricanes could form this year.
There are concerns, however, that these new hires may be directed primarily to eastern U.S. offices, potentially leaving western offices further understaffed.
NOAA has stated that it is actively working to address staffing gaps influenced by early retirements and is looking into reassigning personnel to NWS offices that require immediate support.
On June 4, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick claimed during a Senate hearing that NOAA was “fully staffed” with weather forecasters and scientists, despite prior concerns over some offices losing 24-hour staffing as hurricane season approached.
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