A study published in the Lancet journal highlights alarming ramifications of recent reductions in U.S. foreign aid funding, particularly from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).
The report coincides with a gathering of world and business leaders at a United Nations conference in Spain aimed at reviving the struggling aid sector.
Historically, USAID was responsible for over 40 percent of global humanitarian funding prior to President Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January.
Just weeks later, his close advisor, Elon Musk, made headlines by claiming he had effectively dismantled the agency, stating it had been “put through the woodchipper.”
According to study co-author Davide Rasella from the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), the cuts endanger the progress made in health over the past two decades among vulnerable populations.
Rasella warned that for many low- and middle-income nations, the impending shock could be as severe as that caused by a global pandemic or a major armed conflict.
The research team, analyzing data from 133 countries, estimates that USAID’s funding has saved approximately 91.8 million lives in developing regions from 2001 to 2021.
This staggering figure surpasses the estimated death toll during World War II, history’s deadliest conflict.
The researchers also projected outcomes of the announced 83 percent funding cut by the U.S. government earlier this year, claiming it could result in over 14 million avoidable deaths by 2030.
Of this number, more than 4.5 million would be children under the age of five — indicating a potential increase of around 700,000 child deaths annually.
In comparison, it is estimated that around 10 million soldiers perished during World War I.
The study found that programs backed by USAID were linked to a 15 percent reduction in overall death rates.
For children under five, the decline was even more dramatic, at 32 percent.
Particularly effective in preventing deaths from disease, USAID funding was associated with a 65 percent reduction in fatalities due to HIV/AIDS in countries receiving substantial support as opposed to those with minimal or no USAID assistance.
Moreover, deaths from malaria and neglected tropical diseases were similarly reduced by half.
Francisco Saute from Mozambique’s Manhica Health Research Centre drew on his experiences to underline the impact of USAID support in combating diseases such as HIV, malaria, and tuberculosis.
He cautioned that cutting these funds not only jeopardizes lives but also undermines critical infrastructure established over decades.
A tracker maintained by Boston University’s Brooke Nichols indicates that nearly 108,000 adults and over 224,000 children have already succumbed to the effects of the U.S. aid cuts.
This translates to a shocking rate of 88 deaths every hour.
Following USAID’s funding reductions, other significant donors including France, Germany, and the UK have also announced intentions to scale back their foreign aid budgets.
According to study co-author Caterina Monti of ISGlobal, such reductions, especially within the European Union, may lead to further preventable deaths in the years ahead.
However, the researchers emphasize that their grave projections are based on current aid pledges and could improve if circumstances change.
The Spanish city of Seville is currently hosting numerous world leaders for what is being described as the largest aid conference in a decade.
Notably, the United States has opted not to participate in this conference.
Rasella asserted, “Now is the time to scale up, not scale back,” reminding the public that prior to its funding cuts, USAID accounted for merely 0.3 percent of total U.S. federal spending.
In terms of contributions, U.S. citizens only contribute about 17 cents per day, or roughly $64 annually, to USAID.
Study co-author James Macinko from the University of California, Los Angeles, believes the American public would likely endorse continued USAID funding if aware of the profound impact their modest contributions have on saving millions of lives.
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