Recent polling conducted by the Northwest Progressive Institute (NPI) suggests that Seattle is on the cusp of electing a new mayor.
A Civic Heartbeat survey finds that a plurality of voters favor the candidacy of challenger Katie Wilson.
At the same time, a majority of respondents indicate opposition to the reelection of current Mayor Bruce Harrell.
Among a representative sample of 615 likely voters interviewed recently, 45% reported their support for progressive organizer Katie Wilson, while 40% expressed their intention to vote for incumbent Mayor Bruce Harrell.
The survey revealed that 11% of participants were undecided and 4% indicated they would not cast a vote.
When questioned about their stance on Harrell’s reelection, a significant majority, 55%, voiced opposition, whereas 45% expressed support for him continuing as mayor.
The polling also showed that 52% of voters disapprove of Harrell’s job performance, and 49% hold an unfavorable view of his candidacy for a second term.
Unlike Harrell’s previous strong lead over his opponent Lorena González four years ago, Wilson’s current lead is not as commanding.
However, she remains in a favorable position, having gained more support than Harrell and six other candidates combined in the August primaries.
With the general election approaching in November, recent weeks have not indicated a significant shift in the dynamics of the race.
Wilson is still considered the frontrunner, while Harrell struggles as the underdog, facing a dwindling path to victory.
Harrell’s allies are reportedly investing substantial funds into efforts aimed at discrediting Wilson’s campaign.
However, the NPI polling suggests that these independent expenditures are failing to yield the desired impact.
In fact, the attacks on Wilson appear to be backfiring, further damaging Harrell’s reputation among Seattle voters.
This trend is evident in Wilson’s favorability ratings, which remain positive, while Harrell’s numbers have dropped deeper into negative territory.
Harrell’s favorability spread has shifted from a negative nine-point rating in July to a negative sixteen-point spread this month.
While no poll can accurately predict election outcomes, well-conducted surveys provide valuable snapshots of current sentiment.
NPI’s research has a proven track record in correlating with actual election results, as observed in the recent primaries in August.
For readers unfamiliar with NPI’s public opinion research, reviewing prior analyses can offer greater context and understanding regarding these latest polling findings.
Now, let’s delve into the survey details, beginning with voter attitudes toward the candidates.
Regarding job performance, when asked to evaluate Bruce Harrell, the results were as follows: 36% approved of his performance, while 52% disapproved, and 12% were unsure.
This marks a record low for Harrell’s job performance rating, indicating dwindling public support.
When examining favorability, Harrell has a negative sixteen-point spread, revealed by the following breakdown: 33% favorable (a 2% decline since July), 11% very favorable (+1% since July), and 22% somewhat favorable (-3% since July).
In contrast, 49% reported unfavorable views of Harrell (up 5% since July), with 30% indicating they were very unfavorable and 18% somewhat unfavorable.
Conversely, Katie Wilson enjoys a positive fourteen-point spread with the following numbers: 42% favorable (an increase of 8% since July), 24% very favorable (+6% since July), and 18% somewhat favorable (+2% since July).
Only 29% view her unfavorably (+11% since July), with 20% being very unfavorable and 9% somewhat unfavorable.
Among surveyed voters, an additional question posed was about their voting intention in the upcoming election.
Katie Wilson’s voters have been vocal about her platform, which focuses on addressing major concerns such as homelessness and affordability.
In her voter pamphlet statement, she appeals for a shift away from the status quo emphasized by career politicians.
Harrell’s pamphlet statement emphasizes achievements in unity against federal challenges and a commitment to improving housing affordability and public safety.
Initial voting intentions revealed that 44% intended to support Katie Wilson, while 36% aimed to vote for Bruce Harrell.
However, a notable 20% were still undecided.
To further gauge undecided voters, a follow-up question was posed asking whom they would choose if forced to make a decision.
Among those undecided, 23% indicated they would vote for Bruce Harrell, while only 8% would opt for Katie Wilson, with 49% still unsure and 20% unwilling to vote.
Combining the answers, the total stands at 45% for Wilson, 40% for Harrell, with 11% remaining uncertain and 4% indicating they would not vote.
The survey results also delve into citizens’ views regarding Harrell’s reelection.
When asked whether they supported or opposed Bruce Harrell’s reelection, findings revealed that 45% expressed support (a decrease of 3% since July).
In contrast, 55% opposed his reelection (an increase of 3% since July), highlighting a growing sentiment against him as voters move closer to the election.
Survey dates for the poll stretch from October 19 to October 23, 2025, and it was conducted entirely online by Change Research, with a modeled margin of error of 4.0%.
Demographic information about the participants can be accessed via a link provided by NPI.
Insights from the crosstabs reveal substantial data, especially among those voters who have returned their ballots, equating to around 20% of the total survey participants.
In this subset of respondents, Wilson leads with 51%, while Harrell follows at 41%.
Given Wilson’s strong performance in previous late ballots in August, this data suggests that if she’s capturing early votes, she is likely headed for a definitive victory on Election Night.
Historical patterns indicate that late ballots typically favor progressive candidates in Seattle, further reinforcing this perspective.
Demographically, Wilson resonates strongly with younger voters, whereas Harrell appeals more to older generations.
Current survey results indicate that Wilson claims an impressive 75% support among voters aged eighteen to thirty-four, compared to Harrell’s mere 17%.
For older voters, the trend shifts to Harrell, with 59% support from those aged sixty-five and up, while Wilson garners only 24%.
Here’s a breakdown of support by age bracket:
Among ages eighteen to thirty-four: Katie Wilson 75%, Bruce Harrell 17%.
Among ages thirty-five to forty-nine: Katie Wilson 54%, Bruce Harrell 31%.
Among ages fifty to sixty-four: Katie Wilson 24%, Bruce Harrell 56%.
Among ages sixty-five and up: Katie Wilson 24%, Bruce Harrell 59%.
While there are disparities in support along gender and ethnic lines, age remains the most significant divide.
Ben Greenfield, a Senior Analyst at Change Research, noted that the composition of undecided voters does not provide clear indications of their preferences.
Respondents were also invited to share their thoughts regarding their mayoral vote in their own words.
Over four hundred respondents participated in this segment of the survey, providing insight into their motivations.
Supporters of Katie Wilson expressed the need for fresh leadership that aligns better with the values of the Seattle community.
One male Democratic voter aged eighteen to thirty-four stated, “Katie has a positive vision for where this city can go… She has better plans for housing and transportation.”
Another voter, a Democratic-leaning female aged thirty-five to forty-nine, expressed mixed feelings toward Harrell’s approach, saying, “While I like the things Harrell has said… I’m concerned it is performative because we’re in an election year.”
Others reflected on Harrell’s track record, with comments highlighting serious concerns over workplace allegations, with one voter stating, “His political choices and the allegations about how he treats women in his office deeply concern me.”
Responses advocating for Wilson emphasized her relatability as a working parent who understands the struggles faced by everyday Seattleites.
A male Democratic voter aged fifty to sixty-four noted that Wilson is an accomplished progressive.
Conversely, supporters of Bruce Harrell cited improvements in the city since his administration and expressed a desire for continuity.
One Democratic female voter, aged fifty to sixty-four, remarked, “I see improvement with cleaning up the city and bringing it back to life.”
Several constituents pointed to public safety as an ongoing concern, with one Democratic voter aged eighteen to thirty-four stating, “Public safety are priorities one through ninety-nine… we cannot stop sweeps.”
Others noted a general preference for stability, asserting that it is beneficial for a mayor to serve consecutive terms.
One Democratic voter, a female aged thirty-five to forty-nine, remarked, “I just think it would be good to give a mayor a second term for once rather than changing every four years.”
The community engagement extends to data comparisons with previous polling.
NPI’s polling provides an essential resource amid a dwindling number of public-interest polling efforts available, crucial for understanding the current election landscape.
Notably, prior polling conducted by The Stranger, which utilized DHM Research, showed a similar trajectory regarding the mayoral race.
Although the Stranger’s survey was completed several weeks prior to NPI’s, their findings corroborate the trends observed in the recent survey.
For readers interested in further polling data, NPI has gathered comprehensive insights covering all citywide ballot items.
With polling data for various candidates and measures coming soon, NPI commits to delivering thorough context and analysis that aids voters in making informed decisions.
Local citizens are reminded that voting is vital, with the deadline for submitting ballots set for Tuesday, November 4th, at 8 PM.
Voters are encouraged to prioritize ballot drop-off in the final ten days to avoid potential postal delays.
Engagement is critical in local elections, making participation vital.
All Seattle residents are urged to not only vote but to motivate their friends and family members to be active participants in the democratic process.
image source from：nwprogressive
