Quinn Arnau, president of the Atlanta Realtors Association, reflects on his decision to settle in the Atlanta metro area 20 years ago, citing the vibrant landscape characterized by an emerging airport, major corporate headquarters, and ample space as major factors for his choice.
“I feel like Atlanta is a cool place to live,” Arnau expressed, emphasizing the city’s appeal as an alternative to larger urban centers such as Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York.
Atlanta has experienced steady growth for the last two decades, but as available space diminishes, the pace of expansion has begun to slow.
According to an analysis of data from the Atlanta Regional Commission by SAN, Atlanta’s population grew at an average of 2.2% every five years from 1990 to 2025.
The peak growth period occurred between 2015 and 2020, with the city’s population increasing by 15.5%, translating to approximately 67,015 new residents.
However, the city has also faced declines, most notably a 4.84% drop between 2000 and 2005, marking a loss of 20,163 residents.
Ann Carpenter, head of research and analytics at the commission, stated that her team utilizes data from the decennial census alongside new home construction statistics to assess population trends.
Annual growth figures reveal a more gradual increase, with Census Bureau data showing a decline from 1.5% growth between 2021 and 2022 to just 1.3% from 2023 to 2024.
John Floresta, the chief strategy and accountability officer at the Cobb County School District, attributes part of this slowdown to a stalled national birth rate.
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis reports that the national birth rate has been on the decline since 2007, with a minor uptick in 2021.
Floresta noted, “Over the course of the last five years or so, we have seen a stable birth rate across the county.”
Despite Georgia’s birth rate being slightly higher than the national average—11.3 births per 1,000 people compared to 10.7 in 2023, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention—school enrollment in Cobb County is on the decline.
Enrollment data from the Georgia Department of Education indicates a drop in incoming kindergarteners from 7,720 students six years ago to 6,803 as of March 6.
Even with a stable birth rate, many families have opted to move from urban Atlanta to the suburbs to take advantage of more affordable land and larger homes.
This trend of urban flight has been observed nationwide, intensified during the COVID-19 pandemic. Suburban areas have embraced multifamily developments while urban centers have increasingly shifted away from single-family housing.
Lloyd Potter, a professor of sociology and demography at the University of Texas at San Antonio, pointed out that infrastructure developments, such as transportation systems, often attract new residents.
This has been evident in Atlanta since the expansion of Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport in the 1970s and 1980s, which transformed it into the world’s busiest airport, spurring significant population growth.
Potter noted, “Once Hartsfield airport went in there, I mean, the population just really started taking off pretty dramatically.”
This upward trend has continued since the 1990s, mirroring the growth of major corporations like Delta Air Lines, UPS, Coca-Cola Company, and Equifax, making the region an appealing place for employment.
From 1990 to 2024, the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell region saw its unemployment rate drop from 4.9% to 3.4%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
Since 1990, the region has added over 45,000 employees to its workforce, with the most significant increase of 146,300 jobs occurring in 2021 as the area bounced back from COVID-19 pandemic job losses.
To bolster student employability, Cobb County schools have collaborated with local businesses to embed staff at the Career Innovation and Technology Academy, a magnet school focused on providing hands-on learning and career opportunities.
Floresta mentioned that this initiative equips students with industry-specific skills, making them attractive candidates to prospective employers.
As a result, families are increasingly drawn to suburban districts like Cobb County, leading to either relocation or decisions to enroll their children there.
Floresta, who moved to the Atlanta area nearly 25 years ago, witnessed firsthand the gradual expansion of Cobb County into areas closer to Atlanta, such as Marietta, East Cobb, Kennesaw, and further west.
The Atlanta Regional Commission’s data reveals a significant sprawl of building permits, with 2024 permits being concentrated in Forsyth, Gwinnett, Hall, and Jackson counties.
Arnau observes that younger families are increasingly seeking homes in these suburban areas, which offer more space for affordable prices.
He stated, “We have a lot of people looking for a large flat backyard.”
The availability of natural landscapes, creeks, and rivers adds to the suburban allure, offering an attractive alternative to the urban setting.
However, the scarcity of open space in Atlanta has resulted in an influx of multifamily residential developments, such as apartments, condominiums, and townhomes.
According to the Atlanta Regional Commission, multifamily building permits outnumbered single-family home permits nearly nine to one in 2024.
Arnau observed that this shift towards rentals is coming at the cost of potential single-family home developments.
At the same time, home sales in Atlanta have slowed compared to previous years, placing the real estate market in a neutral state where neither buyers nor sellers hold a significant advantage.
This market condition allows homeowners to remain in their properties longer, benefiting from equity growth.
In response, smaller suburban towns are investing in creating vibrant downtown areas to retain residents, as seen in Alpharetta, which has developed a master plan for its downtown area since its population increase between 1970 and 2015.
The goal remains to entice new and existing residents with a variety of restaurants, shops, and hotels.
While Atlanta’s explosive growth may be moderating, its appeal remains intact, with many continuing to relocate to the city.
Arnau remains optimistic about the future, asserting, “The future is bright. Atlanta will continue to keep growing, and we’ll see people continue to want to live here.”
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