As the War Department finalizes the US National Defense Strategy (NDS), recent commentary suggests a potential shift in focus, prioritizing homeland and hemispheric defense over the looming threat posed by China.
This has raised eyebrows among analysts and military experts who caution against underestimating the significance of China’s military ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region.
Historical trends in US defense strategies remind us that the reality of geopolitical threats often oscillates. The truism, ‘Things are never as good as they seem, and never as bad as they seem,’ serves as a prudent reminder in this context.
While earlier communications hinted at a robust acknowledgment of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as a principal threat, the final NDS may stress a shared responsibility for regional nations to enhance their defense capacities.
This approach mirrors the stance adopted by President Donald Trump’s administration regarding European allies and their responsibility to confront Russian threats, particularly in Ukraine.
From a theoretical standpoint, urging regional allies to contribute more to their own defense appears logical. The United States is faced with an array of domestic and international challenges, and it is unreasonable to expect nations geographically closer to these threats to rely wholly on American military support.
However, the reality on the ground presents a significant challenge. Key Indo-Pacific partners, including Japan, South Korea, and Australia, exhibit hesitance to elevate their military engagement independently.
Critically, this reluctance partly stems from the United States’ historical inability to provide the necessary support for these nations to develop their own advanced military capabilities.
Despite numerous attempts at fostering engagement and conducting military exercises, the fundamental work of developing genuine self-defense and combined operational capabilities has often been neglected.
Consequently, no single Indo-Pacific nation stands ready to confront China unilaterally.
In face-to-face confrontations, China’s growing military might poses a severe risk to these nations.
Moreover, the psychological implications of a perceived reduction in US commitment to the region cannot be overstated.
This perception serves as a critical adhesive among allies, granting them the confidence to resist PRC’s aggressive maneuvers.
Any hints of diminished American resolve, even with assertions of ‘rock solid’ and ‘iron-clad’ commitments, can undermine morale among allies while potentially emboldening adversaries.
For the tough-love strategy to work effectively, it must be underpinned by a credible, long-term commitment that withstands Washington’s fluctuating political landscape.
Historically, the US commitment to allies has faltered under domestic political pressures.
Recollections of the Nixon Doctrine from 1969 illustrate this fragile dynamic. The doctrine proposed that while the United States would assist in allies’ defense, it would not bear the total burden of their security.
By the mid-1970s, US support for South Vietnam dwindled due to congressional interference, ultimately leading to the catastrophic collapse of the South Vietnamese government.
More close to home, the US’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 has left deep concerns over the reliability of American commitments to its allies.
The NDS may demonstrate a well-crafted perspective on paper, open to various interpretations by its audience.
Nevertheless, whispers of potential troop withdrawals from Asia have emerged, creating further unease regarding America’s military posture in the region.
In light of the increasing threats from China, the current force levels throughout the Indo-Pacific region are already minimal, raising alarm among defense analysts.
The loss of even a few destroyers or fighter squadrons from Japan could trigger a severe imbalance, leading to the worrying realization that the NDS may reflect the worst-case scenarios.
The narrative surrounding national defense must prioritize the Western Pacific to ensure regional stability and deter aggression from China.
In the end, the critical challenge will be whether decision-makers implementing the NDS can recognize and act upon this reality.
image source from：asiatimes
