As the Atlantic tropics experience increased activity, a recent update highlights why Texas is facing a significantly reduced threat from hurricanes this year.
After a calm late August and much of September, the tropics have awakened with notable storms, including Hurricane Gabrielle, which has strengthened into a major hurricane far from land.
Additionally, Tropical Storm Humberto has formed and poses a potential threat to Bermuda as it develops into a large hurricane, while Invest 94L is forecasted to develop near the Bahamas in the coming days.
While these storms warrant close attention, particularly for areas stretching from Florida up the East Coast, Texas appears to be in a different situation.
Despite some uncertainty regarding developments in the Bay of Campeche, the chances of significant tropical storm activity impacting Texas remain minimal.
Historically, during this time of year, hurricanes making landfall in Texas are exceedingly rare, although not impossible.
Given the current pattern and the ongoing season trajectory, analysts suggest that the probability of a hurricane striking Texas is now less than 1 in 50 for the remainder of the season.
This period of relative calm means that while there could still be rainfall or moderate winds from any lingering tropical disturbances, the overall expectation is for storms to be diverted away from Texas.
Turning to the weather forecast, today marks a transition as drier air streams in from the north.
Locations in Montgomery County are already experiencing lower humidity levels with dewpoints in the 60s.
Conversely, areas closer to the coast, such as League City and Santa Fe, are currently seeing showers as the rainfall moves southeastward.
Today’s weather pattern is expected to favor drier conditions, clearing the way for mostly sunny skies by the afternoon, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s.
Light northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph will accompany these clear conditions, while tonight the temperature will dip into the upper 60s across much of Houston, with slightly cooler temps further inland and lower 70s along the coast.
As we look to the weekend, the forecast holds a high degree of confidence, promising three sunny days ahead.
Temperatures will generally remain in the upper 80s, with overnight lows settling in the upper 60s for most areas in Houston; it will be cooler inland and a bit warmer near the coast.
With dewpoints in the 50s and 60s, the atmosphere will feel relatively dry, making mornings and evenings particularly pleasant.
Even though it might not completely feel like fall just yet, it’s a welcome change following a long, hot summer.
As we transition into next week, not much is expected to shift in the weather pattern.
Forecasted highs will hover around 90 degrees, and lows will be near 70, with a slight uptick in humidity anticipated around Wednesday.
Aside from the weather we’ve experienced today, rain chances will remain low until at least the weekend, ensuring continued pleasant conditions across the region.
image source from：spacecityweather
