Houston is experiencing a typical August day, characterized by a chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. This weather pattern will likely continue as the region heads into a hot stretch, which is customary for this time of year.
As the month progresses, tropical activity in the Atlantic has begun to pick up, aligning with seasonal expectations. Recently, the fourth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, known as Dexter, formed, though it poses no threat to land. The presence of additional weather systems, referred to as ‘blobs’, is also being monitored.
In terms of historical context, Dexter is notable as it marks an earlier-than-expected development for the season, typically seeing the ‘D’ storm form around August 15th. While this might suggest an active hurricane season, data indicates that the overall storm activity has been relatively low, measured by accumulated cyclone energy. Currently, the energy levels are approximately 20 percent of what is considered normal for this time of year.
The graphics that accompany current forecasts reveal two key observations: first, the season has not yet started as robustly as in past years; and second, the majority of the storm activity historically occurs later in summer—August and September being the peak months. For Houston, the quieter start offers a moment of relief, but it does not mean that the risks are behind us.
In the coming week, meteorologists do not anticipate any imminent threats to the Gulf of Mexico. Yet, it is essential not to overlook the developing tropical systems, as the environment is becoming increasingly conducive to hurricanes as we move deeper into the season. Attention must be paid closely to any developments over the next several weeks, particularly for Texas and the surrounding areas.
Looking ahead to Monday, thunderstorms are likely to occur offshore, with the potential for those storms to move inland. This afternoon could see scattered thunderstorms in the Houston area, particularly west of Interstate 45, where the chance of rainfall increases.
Although the overall thunderstorm activity may not be widespread, localized areas could experience significant rainfall totaling about an inch or more, while many parts of the region may remain dry. The sky is expected to clear, leading to mostly sunny conditions with high daytime temperatures hovering in the low to mid-90s.
As the week progresses into Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, a strong ridge of high pressure will settle over the southwestern United States. Houston’s position on the eastern fringes of this system will yield typical summer weather, which includes mostly sunny skies, and daytime highs in the mid-90s. Some areas further inland may flirt with upper 90s temperatures.
The humidity levels will be high with warm and muggy nights continuing throughout the week. While a low-end chance of afternoon showers remains, particularly along the sea breeze, the weather pattern reflects what is usually expected during the hottest period of August.
As we move toward the weekend, Friday through Sunday shows little variation in the weather outlook. Expect continued sunny skies and daytime highs persisting in the mid-90s range. The odds of rain remain modest at around 30 percent daily due to the sea breeze effect but indicate that no one should rule out a brief shower or thunderstorm.
Overall, Houston’s weather appears to follow a consistent late-summer pattern. As the area navigates through August, vigilance regarding the Atlantic tropical system developments is advisable, as forecasts potentially indicate more activity as we progress further into the hurricane season.
image source from：spacecityweather
