New Delhi, India – As President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin prepare for their summit in Alaska, the implications of their meeting will resonate far beyond the borders of the United States and Russia. With tensions escalating due to trade tariffs and geopolitical maneuvering, India’s stance is under keen observation from both global superpowers.
India has historically maintained a strong bond with Russia yet simultaneously nurtured a growing relationship with the U.S., especially since the dawn of the 21st century. Under the leadership of past U.S. Presidents like George W. Bush and Barack Obama, ties with New Delhi have reached new heights, and this trajectory continued into President Biden’s administration.
The driving force behind this U.S.-India partnership has been the shared objective of countering China’s rising influence in the Asia Pacific region. This strategy supports the U.S. focus on the Quad alliance, which includes fellow democracies: India, Australia, and Japan.
However, in a shift away from previous diplomatic norms, President Trump’s imposition of a 50 percent tariff on Indian imports marks a serious blow to U.S.-India relations, raising concerns about the future of their partnership. This penalty, one of the highest tariffs on any country, has affected India prominently due to its continued purchase of Russian oil amid ongoing conflict in Ukraine – a situation the Biden administration had previously encouraged to help stabilize global oil prices.
In stark contrast, China, which imports even larger quantities of Russian oil than India, seems unaffected by high U.S. tariffs as negotiations with New Delhi continue for a potential trade agreement. The differential treatment raises questions about the U.S.’s strategic priorities and whether President Trump’s stringent measures against India illustrate a broader pivot away from American interests in Asia.
Since the early 2000s, Indian governance has continually promoted stronger ties with the United States, positioning itself as an emerging strategic partner in security, trade, and technology. Trump’s personal engagement with Prime Minister Modi during his presidency, expressed through supportive public appearances and statements, failed to shield India from the impact of these aggressive tariffs.
Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, characterizes the recent tariff actions as triggering the most serious rupture in U.S.-India relations in decades.
In the wake of Trump’s tariff threats, India initially opted for a diplomatic approach to avoid escalating tensions. Recent reactions, however, reflect a growing frustration toward the U.S. government, as India openly accuses Washington of hypocrisy for maintaining its own trade with Russia while imposing tariffs on India.
According to analysts like Praveen Donthi at the International Crisis Group, the declining relationship can be traced back to an evolving personal dynamic between Trump and Modi, presenting a clash reflective of contrasting leadership styles.
India had previously coped with threats of U.S. sanctions for its ongoing relationships with Russia, specifically concerning the acquisition of the S-400 missile defense system. However, under the Biden administration, India received a waiver from potential sanctions, suggesting a pragmatic flexibility from Washington towards New Delhi.
Donthi notes that the current friction highlights a clash of personalities and indicates that India’s historically multi-aligned strategy is at odds with Trump’s transactional approach to foreign relations.
Further complicating matters is America’s historical association with Pakistan, which leaves lingering distrust in the Indian strategic mindset. The Trump administration’s cordial engagements with Islamabad, including visits from its army chief to Washington, exacerbate concerns within New Delhi.
Nonetheless, shared apprehensions about China’s ascension to regional dominance have traditionally provided a strong bond between the U.S. and India, informed by a bipartisan consensus on India’s strategic import. Yet, many in India now view the unpredictability of Trump’s presidency as a potential disruptor of previous rapport built on ‘strategic altruism’.
During the Obama administration, the U.S. adopted a “Rebalance to Asia” policy, directed at enhancing diplomatic and military relationships across the Asia Pacific, particularly focusing on allies like Japan and Australia while seeking to deepen collaborations with emerging partners like India and Vietnam.
This strategy was aimed at developing a counterbalance to China. However, Trump’s economic policies, particularly the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), diminished the economic dimensions of this shift, steering the Washington approach closer to military cooperation.
The extension of tariffs onto India, however, marks a notable departure from Trump’s previous restraint with allies like Japan and South Korea, raising uncertainty amongst Asian partners regarding America’s commitment to its strategic alliances in the region.
In light of advancing diplomatic issues with Trump, India has been engaging in vigorous diplomacy to reinforce its stature as a balanced power. National Security Adviser Ajit Doval’s recent visit to Moscow to meet with Putin, mirrored by foreign minister S. Jaishankar’s forthcoming plans to visit Russia, underscores India’s attempts to navigate this turbulent geopolitical landscape.
Moreover, India is reportedly considering a revival of the Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral dialogue, which had previously lapsed since 2019, significantly based on a suggestion from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The original concept, initiated in the 1990s, had intended to foster cooperation among these three nations but has faced challenges due to the contentious history between India and China.
Amid the growing complexities of external relations, experts suggest that Prime Minister Modi faces significant dilemmas ahead. Michael Kugelman of the Asia Pacific Foundation notes that India will likely not sever ties with Russia due to that country’s unique partnership status, while also balancing its relations with the U.S. with caution about further potential sanctions.
Kugelman’s analysis points to the immediate need for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a favorable scenario for India, which would alleviate pressure from Trump’s administration as it seeks to address Russia’s global actions.
As questions linger over the reliability of the U.S. pivot to Asia, India’s balance may not come easy. Political analysts indicate that if the U.S. chooses to mend its relationship with India, those longstanding partnerships can be salvaged.
The revival of the RIC may lead to more symbolic gestures rather than substantial cooperation, particularly given the fragile nature of India-China relations. Although recent de-escalations along their shared Himalayan border have occurred, longstanding trust issues alongside territorial disputes remain a headline concern.
Vaishnav mirrors Kugelman’s sentiment, suggesting that while tactical interest alignment can arise occasionally, Russia’s offerings to India beyond defense and energy remain limited. Similarly, the pursuit of easing tensions with China faces its own challenges due to entrenched territorial disputes.
Retired diplomat Jon Danilowicz states that a collapse between the U.S. and India would ultimately carry adverse implications for both countries. Although the commercial and security partnerships may be sustained with less enthusiasm than before, a complete fracture is not favorable for either.
As the tariffs set forth by Trump can potentially bolster Modi’s domestic standing, the narrative of resisting U.S. pressure may benefit him politically. The recent tensions highlight Trump’s unreliability, allowing Modi to enhance his image as a strong leader focused on national sovereignty.
Domestically, Modi confronts complexities, especially as opposition parties challenge his approach amid conflicts over Kashmir and tensions with Pakistan. Any concessions to U.S. pressures may be politically damaging for Modi, who is encouraged to showcase his resilience and independence.
Analysts suggest that the tariffs may reflect more about stalled trade discussions than any fundamental shift in U.S.-India relations, particularly as Modi’s government remains cautious about opening sensitive sectors like agriculture and dairy that millions of Indians rely upon for their livelihoods.
Modi’s recent statements stress his commitment to protecting the interests of Indian farmers, asserting his willingness to absorb personal costs associated with these decisions.
Ultimately, both nations stand to gain from a compromise that arrests the downward trend in their relationships. However, the previously warm and friendly atmosphere appears to be on hold, signaling a transitional phase focused on redefining their partnership.
In summary, the dynamics between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Modi reveal a complex web of historical ties, contemporary challenges, and strategic decision-making that will shape the future of India’s foreign relations in an evolving global order.
image source from：aljazeera
