In a momentous event, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a US-brokered peace agreement on Friday, marking a significant shift in their long-standing relationship. The agreement was reached during a meeting with US President Donald Trump at the White House, aiming to strengthen bilateral economic ties after decades of conflict.
The deal, which has the potential to reshape relations between these South Caucasus rivals, is viewed as a significant achievement for the Trump administration. It comes against a backdrop of heightened tensions in the region, which Moscow considers to be within its sphere of influence.
President Trump expressed optimism about the agreement during a signing ceremony where he was joined by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. “It’s a long time — 35 years — they fought and now they’re friends, and they’re going to be friends for a long time,” he remarked.
The longstanding discord between Armenia and Azerbaijan traces back to the late 1980s, particularly centered around the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which predominantly has an ethnic Armenian population. The conflict escalated when the region broke away from Azerbaijan, with support from Armenia. However, following military actions in 2023, Azerbaijan regained full control over the territory, leading to the exodus of almost all ethnic Armenians from the region.
Under the terms of the new agreement, both nations have pledged to cease hostilities, establish diplomatic relations, and honor each nation’s territorial integrity.
Part of the deal includes exclusive US development rights for a strategic transit corridor through the South Caucasus. The White House emphasized that this corridor would facilitate enhanced exports of energy and other resources between the two nations and beyond.
Trump also announced separate agreements with both Azerbaijan and Armenia to bolster cooperation in various sectors, including energy, trade, and technology, with a particular focus on artificial intelligence. Unfortunately, specific details regarding these arrangements were not disclosed.
Furthermore, the agreement shall also remove prior restrictions on defense cooperation between Azerbaijan and the United States, an aspect likely to cause concern in Moscow. During the signing, both leaders expressed their gratitude to Trump for aiding in the resolution of their long-standing conflict, suggesting he deserves consideration for the Nobel Peace Prize.
In his attempt to position himself as a global peacemaker, President Trump has claimed responsibility for multiple diplomatic successes, such as brokering a ceasefire between Cambodia and Thailand, as well as facilitating peace agreements involving Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and relations between Pakistan and India. However, his efforts to resolve ongoing conflicts, particularly Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the situation involving Israel and Hamas remain ongoing challenges.
The US officials reported that the agreement emerged from numerous discussions and complex negotiations with both nations to lay the groundwork for full normalization of relations. The implications of the peace deal extend beyond bilateral ties, potentially transforming the South Caucasus, a region that has long been affected by ethnic strife, closed borders, and isolation despite its energy wealth and strategic importance.
Experts are weighing in on the ramifications of the agreement. Brett Erickson, a sanctions expert from Loyola University’s Chicago School of Law, noted that the deal could assist the West in cracking down on Russian efforts to bypass sanctions. “The Caucasus has been a blind spot in sanctions policy,” he stated. “A formal peace creates a platform for the West to engage Armenia and Azerbaijan… to shut down the evasion pipelines.”
Tina Dolbaia, an associate fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, emphasized the symbolic significance of Friday’s signing, while also highlighting a myriad of unanswered questions. Key among them is which US entities might oversee the new transit corridor and the level of involvement Armenia and Azerbaijan would have in its development.
The regional ramifications of the agreement are momentous. Dolbaia expressed concern that Russia might express its displeasure at being sidelined from the agreement and the US’s role in this corridor would stir discontent. She articulated that the handshake between Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders, coupled with US involvement, sends a strong message to Russia.
Olesya Vartanyan, a regional expert, echoed similar sentiments, emphasizing that while the agreement introduces an element of predictability to the region, its long-term success hinges on sustained US involvement. “Armenia and Azerbaijan… have a much longer track record of failed negotiations and violent escalations than of peaceful resolutions,” she remarked. “Without proper and continued US engagement, the issue will likely get deadlocked again, increasing the chances of renewed tensions.”
Officials from the administration asserted that the agreement signifies the conclusion of the first of several long-lasting conflicts along Russia’s borders since the end of the Cold War, sending a powerful signal to the region.
In a notable development, Armenia plans to grant the US exclusive special development rights for the transit corridor for an extended period. Dubbed the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, it has attracted interest from nine companies, including three US firms.
On a related note, rights group Freedom Now urged President Trump to use this opportunity to pressure Azerbaijan for the release of approximately 375 political prisoners being held there.
Despite being an oil-rich nation that recently hosted the United Nations climate summit, Azerbaijan has consistently rejected Western criticisms of its human rights record, deeming such critiques as unacceptable interference.
image source from：timesofisrael
