Germany is acutely aware that the U.S. military won’t maintain its presence indefinitely. As discussions around American military deployments evolve, Berlin is working to ensure that the U.S. does not withdraw too soon.
For decades, the presence of U.S. troops in Germany has been a cornerstone of America’s international operations and a critical component of European defense. As Washington undertakes a reassessment of its military bases and strategies, officials in Berlin express growing uncertainty about the potential implications for their national security.
Recently, Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius traveled to Washington to engage in dialogue with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. He underscored that Berlin recognizes a shift in American military posture is on the horizon.
“I began pointing out two years ago that it would become clear at some point that the Americans would eventually do less,” Pistorius told reporters after their meeting.
He continued, “For now, we in Europe have been able to count on them doing more. But we have to recognize that they have their own interests — in the Indo-Pacific, in the security of maritime trade routes.”
What remains unclear, however, is precisely what “less” entails. German officials are eager to engage in coordination efforts, but they have yet to receive definitive commitments regarding U.S. military strategies and timelines.
NATO allies share similar concerns. Matthew Whitaker, the U.S. Ambassador to NATO, aimed to alleviate some of those worries in recent statements made at NATO headquarters in Brussels.
“I’ve had daily conversations with our allies about that process,” Whitaker remarked, assuring that there have been “no surprises and no gaps in … the strategic framework of Europe.”
At the center of these discussions lies the Global Force Posture Review, a significant Pentagon-led assessment intended to realign U.S. military deployments globally.
This review is being conducted in light of shifting global priorities, notably the escalating tensions in the Indo-Pacific and increasing pressure to curb overseas spending by the U.S. government. The anticipation surrounding the report, expected by September, has sparked concern that it may lead to a reduction of American troops stationed in Europe.
In February, Hegseth, alongside his Polish counterpart, issued a stark warning, stating, “Now is the time to invest [in your militaries], because you can’t make an assumption that America’s presence will last forever.”
Germany has particular reasons to take this warning seriously. The country hosts the largest contingent of U.S. troops in Europe, with around 35,000 service members spread across 35 municipalities.
Key installations include Ramstein Air Base, vital for U.S. air operations and communication, and Grafenwöhr, the largest U.S. Army training area outside the United States. These installations play crucial roles not only in Europe’s defense but also in broader U.S. military operations.
U.S. military support has been foundational for Germany’s national security, stretching from the Cold War to the current geopolitical landscape. Persistent shortcomings in Germany’s military capabilities, from ammunition supplies to readiness and strategic deterrence, have fostered a heavy reliance on American forces, including U.S. nuclear weapons stationed in Büchel, an essential element of NATO’s defense strategy against threats like Russia.
As noted by Aylin Matlé, a senior fellow for security policy at the German Council on Foreign Relations, the U.S. military presence also serves American interests.
“Bases like Ramstein aren’t just used for European defense,” Matlé explained, adding that they also project power into regions such as the Middle East and Africa.
According to Matlé, the forthcoming Global Force Posture Review could signal a withdrawal of 20,000 U.S. troops sent to Europe in 2022 under President Joe Biden’s administration in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Despite this potential reduction, a substantial American military footprint would likely remain, with current troop levels fluctuating between 90,000 and 100,000. Matlé added that a downsizing of Biden-era reinforcements could carry symbolic weight under the previous Trump administration, suggesting it may serve to send a message.
A NATO official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, indicated that a drawdown of up to 30 percent in Europe could be anticipated, signaling a more significant adjustment to U.S. military commitments in the region.
Regardless of the exact number of troops that might be withdrawn, Matlé stressed the importance of a coordinated and orderly process, warning against any abrupt actions that might catch European allies by surprise.
With the Pentagon’s report still pending, uncertainty looms over what the final outcome may entail and how swiftly changes could be executed.
Germany’s leadership is keen to avoid allowing this uncertainty to spiral into a crisis. Pistorius emphasized the need for collaborative planning, stating, “It’s about coordinating how we implement such a decision, if and when it comes.”
His concern is rooted in the potential for capability gaps to emerge if the Americans withdraw assets that Germany might not be able to quickly replace.
This apprehension has prompted Germany to engage in proactive diplomatic efforts. Officials in Berlin are advocating for a phased and transparent approach, highlighting Germany’s increasing military investments and willingness to accommodate U.S. forces in the country.
In June, it was announced that Germany would elevate its defense spending from approximately €86 billion in 2025 to about €153 billion by 2029.
This increase would raise defense spending to approximately 3.5 percent of GDP, aligning with NATO targets and enhancing shared infrastructure commitments.
According to Matlé, Germany’s efforts are deliberate and have seen some measure of success.
“The German government clearly sought to reestablish a close alignment with the U.S. early on,” she noted, citing a coordinated strategy involving Chancellor Friedrich Merz and other key officials.
In early July, Merz took the initiative to contact Trump to facilitate weapons deliveries to Ukraine, striving to keep Germany in good standing with Washington.
During Merz’s initial visit to Washington as chancellor, the topic of U.S. troop presence surfaced. When asked about potential reductions, Trump remarked, “I’ve always said Europe needs to do more, but Germany has been stepping up. We’ll look at what makes sense going forward.”
image source from：politico
