The Seattle City Council President Sara Nelson is facing a challenging re-election bid as recent polling indicates a significant shift in voter support toward her challenger, Dionne Foster.
A Civic Heartbeat poll conducted by the Northwest Progressive Institute reveals that Foster is leading with 44% of voter support, while Nelson trails behind with 29%.
This polling data reflects a steady decline in Nelson’s popularity, particularly following her disappointing performance in the August Top Two election, where she garnered just 35.34% of the vote.
In stark contrast, Foster emerged as a formidable contender, receiving 58.44% of the votes during that election, positioning her as the clear frontrunner leading into the November general election.
Historically, Nelson had a favorable standing within the council and even led in polling against her previous opponent, Nikita Oliver, four years ago.
She was the only council member with a positive job performance rating as of early 2023, following the election of a new majority aligned with her agenda.
However, many voters have grown dissatisfied with her leadership and the council’s lack of effective governance in recent times.
The council’s focus on revisiting past decisions rather than taking decisive action has led to a decline in approval ratings for Nelson, with negative sentiments reflected in polling data over the last two years.
Despite early warnings about voter discontent, Nelson has remained unchanged in her approach, contributing to the challenging circumstances she now faces in her re-election campaign.
Her colleague, Alexis Mercedes Rinck, representing the other at-large seat, appears to be headed toward a second successive win, highlighting a stark contrast in voter sentiment toward council members.
Some of Nelson’s supporters have suggested that the political climate created by President Donald Trump’s return to power has made it difficult for her to compete.
However, the data indicates that her unpopularity had begun to take root long before Trump’s inauguration in January 2025.
Voters are increasingly yearning for a city council that effectively addresses significant issues.
Critically, Nelson missed a recent committee hearing, which ended up lacking quorum, raising concerns about her commitment to governance.
In a recent candidate forum hosted by the Urban Community Councils of Seattle, Nelson’s remarks regarding community opposition to a controversial decision on surveillance cameras have been perceived as dismissive.
Foster has seized upon these moments to criticize Nelson’s perceived detachment from her constituents, arguing that community feedback should be respected and heard rather than ridiculed.
Foster, in her campaign messaging, emphasizes a better approach to public safety, advocating for investment in prevention and intervention strategies instead of expanded surveillance.
Polling shows that while many voters may still be unfamiliar with Foster—34% had not heard of her before being surveyed—those who are familiar with her tend to view her positively.
Despite not yet commanding over half of the voter base, Foster has made a compelling case as an alternative to the status quo, appealing particularly to younger voters.
Recent polls reflect that voters who have already cast their ballots favor Foster by a margin of 53% to 32%.
Demographically, Foster enjoys strong support among younger constituents, while Nelson has a slight edge with older voters, representing a generational shift in voter preferences.
Interestingly, the same proportion of Democratic voters support Foster as the percentage of Republican voters supporting Nelson, suggesting a wide-ranging appeal for the challenger.
Polling conducted by The Stranger also indicates a preference for Foster, but the details and methodology differ from the Northwest Progressive Institute’s findings.
As November approaches, the urgency of the election is palpable, with reminders for Seattle voters to submit their ballots before the deadline of November 4 at 8 PM.
For those who wait until the last ten days, returning ballots to a drop box is recommended to avoid potential postal delays.
As the race heats up, the contrasting visions presented by Foster and Nelson will likely shape the future of Seattle’s governance and approach to the myriad challenges facing the city.
image source from：nwprogressive
