A recent Civic Heartbeat poll reveals that a near majority of Seattle voters are inclined to replace incumbent City Attorney Ann Davison with challenger Erika Evans in the upcoming election.
The polling, conducted by Change Research for the Northwest Progressive Institute, indicates that 49% of 615 likely voters would support Evans, while 28% favor Davison.
Additionally, 19% of the surveyed voters remain undecided, and 4% expressed that they would not vote.
Evans has previously demonstrated her electoral strength, having claimed 55.83% of the vote in the August Top Two election, surpassing Davison and two other progressive challengers.
As a former federal prosecutor with experience in the Seattle City Attorney’s office, Evans is currently fueled by a robust campaign infrastructure, which includes sponsorship from the Northwest Progressive Institute, although the Institute clarified that they had no influence on the poll’s design or execution.
Endorsements for Evans come from a wide array of prominent figures, including Attorney General Nick Brown, United States Representative Pramila Jayapal, and local council members, showcasing strong support from the Democratic Party and labor movements.
Contrarily, Davison’s backing includes former Democratic Governors Chris Gregoire and Gary Locke, the latter helping her win the office against Nicole Thomas-Kennedy four years ago, alongside endorsements from various other notable figures, including US Representative Adam Smith.
The dynamics of this year’s race seem to take a turn from the last election cycle where Davison had the upper hand against Thomas-Kennedy, allowing her to emerge victorious from a challengingly unusual general election between herself, a Republican, and an abolitionist candidate.
Now, however, Davison finds herself the underdog against Evans as progressive activists had long anticipated her vulnerability, believing that a credible challenger could defeat her.
The overwhelming results from the August election confirmed these suspicions, and current polling suggests that Evans is poised for victory in November.
Questions regarding job performance and favorability ratings for both candidates were asked in the poll.
In assessing Davison’s job performance, only 29% of respondents expressed approval, while 35% disapproved, and 36% were unsure.
This sentiment reflects an overall downward trend for Davison’s approval ratings dating back to early 2023.
When evaluating favorability, Davison’s numbers reveal a negative spread, with 25% of respondents viewing her favorably and 34% unfavorably.
In contrast, Evans enjoys a positive 13-point spread, with 30% favorability and only 17% expressing unfavorable opinions.
During the polling process, respondents were also asked whom they had voted for or plan to vote for in the upcoming election for City Attorney.
Initial results revealed that Evans is leading with 45% compared to Davison’s 26%.
For 29% of participants, uncertainty remains, and when a follow-up was conducted among undecided voters, Evans still led with 15% against Davison’s 8%.
However, a considerable 65% of undecided voters remained unsure about their choice.
This culminates in the combined supportive numbers translating to Evans at 49% and Davison at 28%, with the remaining respondents still uncertain or planning not to vote.
The poll, which gathered data from October 19th to October 23rd, included a modeled margin of error of 4.0%, conducted entirely online with demographic information available in accompanying materials.
Insider analysis indicates that Evans’ support base is particularly strong among younger voters, Democratic voters, female voters, and voters of color.
For instance, among the youngest cohort, a substantial 65% favor Evans, in stark contrast to only 11% supporting Davison.
Conversely, Davison has a slight edge among voters aged fifty and older, capturing 40% among those aged fifty to sixty-four and 37% among those sixty-five and older.
As expected, Davison also retains overwhelming support from self-identified Republican voters, with 54% backing her compared to Evans’ 16%.
The Civic Heartbeat poll results contrast sharply with prior polling conducted for The Stranger, which indicated that Evans was only leading by eleven points.
The difference in findings is likely attributed to the more comprehensive information provided during the polling conducted by the Northwest Progressive Institute, allowing respondents to evaluate candidates based on their positions rather than merely by name.
In addition to this City Attorney race polling, the Northwest Progressive Institute is collecting extensive data on various ballot measures and other local races set for November.
They invite subscribers to The Chinook Beacon to stay updated on additional findings, emphasizing their commitment to public interest polling amidst a relative scarcity of reputable data sources for Seattle.
Voters are reminded of the importance of participation in local elections, with the deadline for ballot submissions set for Tuesday, November 4th at 8 PM.
With growing political tensions and critical issues at stake, every vote counts, and individuals are encouraged to engage their friends and family in the voting process.
image source from：nwprogressive
