On July 23, 2025, Daniel B. Shapiro, distinguished fellow at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative in the Atlantic Council, provided testimony before the U.S. Senate Subcommittee on Near East, South Asia, Central Asia, and Counterterrorism. He addressed U.S. diplomatic strategies for a dynamically changing Middle East.
Shapiro began by expressing gratitude for the opportunity to testify at a pivotal moment in U.S. policy regarding the Middle East. He emphasized that this moment presents a unique chance to reshape the region to foster peace and prosperity while minimizing conflict and violence.
In his remarks, Shapiro noted that the progress made between 2020 and 2023 towards greater regional integration was significantly disrupted by the terrorist attacks launched by Hamas against Israel on October 7, 2023. He described how, in the nearly 21 months post-attack, military actions by Israel and the U.S. had significantly weakened key Iranian partners in the region, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and various militia groups aligned with Iran.
He detailed the crumbling status of the Assad regime in Syria, which lost support as Iran and Hezbollah failed to intervene effectively. Overall, he asserted that Iran now finds itself at its weakest position in decades.
Shapiro highlighted the pivotal role of Iranian strategic miscalculations, particularly the decision to provoke a broader military engagement with Israel. He pointed out that Iran’s encouragement of Hezbollah was met with decisive Israeli military responses that disabled Hezbollah’s ability to function as a credible deterrent.
He pointedly discussed Iran’s two notable offensives against Israel in 2023. The significant military capabilities displayed by Israel, supported by the U.S., successfully thwarted these direct confrontations, leading to a calculated Israeli response against Iranian nuclear facilities in mid-2025.
The former defense official explained that while military confrontations such as these might seem alarming, they were a necessary response to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities. He noted that, during the last few years, Iran had made substantial advancements in its nuclear program, nearing the ability to produce a nuclear weapon.
Shapiro recounted how the damage inflicted by military operations weakened Iran’s nuclear ambitions. He asserted that while this military success was notable, Iran and its proxies, although significantly weakened, remain threats.
He urged the necessity of using comprehensive U.S. military and diplomatic strategies to consolidate the gains achieved through military actions. Stating that several critical objectives should be prioritized forward, Shapiro was poised to discuss the diplomatic path ahead in the Middle East.
He elaborated that maintaining a robust U.S. military presence in the region is essential not just as a counter to adversarial forces but also as a means to assure allies of U.S. commitment. This would help stabilize partnerships with countries like Egypt, Jordan, and Gulf states, which play crucial roles in the regional security architecture.
Shapiro transitioned to focus on potential diplomatic initiatives, stressing the need to conclude ongoing conflicts and solidify regional cooperation, particularly those resulting from the Abraham Accords. According to him, tackling the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and facilitating reconstruction efforts are critical starting points for establishing lasting peace in the region.
He proposed a multi-faceted approach that looks into ending the war in Gaza, calling for a ceasefire while also seeking the release of hostages held by Hamas. By removing Hamas from power, ensuring protections for Palestinian civilians, and securing humanitarian aid, Shapiro believes reconstruction efforts can begin in earnest.
Furthermore, he cautioned against potential escalations resulting from misguided policies like President Trump’s Gaza Riviera proposal, which he labeled as provocative, and called for an increased flow of humanitarian assistance to alleviate the suffering of Gaza’s civilians.
Shapiro further remarked on the necessity of a coherent day-after plan that would facilitate the peaceful governance of Gaza post-conflict. He envisioned a comprehensive security mission to provide stability, supervise aid distribution, and gradually reintroduce leadership from the Palestinian Authority, supported by Arab state partners.
His testimony also put an emphasis on addressing regional normalization efforts, particularly with Saudi Arabia, suggesting that normalization with Israel could reshape the political dynamics in the Middle East. He noted prospects for continued dialogues within the framework of existing agreements and the need for a special envoy dedicated to extending the Abraham Accords.
In his expansive view, Shapiro acknowledged that diversifying and allowing Arab states to play a more significant role in the reconstruction of Gaza could be beneficial, contingent on their willingness to support a future Palestinian state.
Lastly, Shapiro expressed concerns and caution regarding Iran’s regional influence, advocating for diplomatic negotiations to curtail its nuclear ambitions and asserting that the U.S. must be prepared to maintain a posture toward military strikes if Iran attempts to rebuild its nuclear program.
He concluded with a comprehensive call to action, urging increased resources and personnel for U.S. foreign policy initiatives in the region, fearing that inadequate preparations in the face of rising Chinese influence could result in lost opportunities for American engagement and leadership.
Shapiro’s testimony underscored the interconnected challenges facing U.S. interests in a region marked by conflict, the need for robust diplomatic efforts, and the strategic importance of maintaining military readiness. With a sense of urgency, he called for collective action to maximize the potential for lasting peace and stability in the Middle East.
image source from：atlanticcouncil
