Nearly nine months have passed since the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Russia, thus concluding his family’s long-standing governance.
In this transitional period, a new government led by former rebel leader Ahmad al-Sharaa has faced numerous challenges including the daunting task of rebuilding a war-torn nation and managing rising tensions among its diverse ethnic and religious groups, which have been exacerbated by recent violence targeting Syria’s Druze and Alawite minorities.
As Sharaa’s administration works to revive the economy, centralize governance, and ensure security, insights from Middle East experts visiting Damascus reveal a mixed outlook on the progress made so far.
Ibrahim Al-Assil, Syria Project lead for the Atlantic Council’s Middle East programs, describes the atmosphere in Damascus as cautiously optimistic yet precarious.
“Landing in Damascus to examine the transition, I found the city both determined and fragile,” Al-Assil noted.
The government ministries, having been ravaged by prolonged conflict and international sanctions, are currently being rebuilt from scratch.
Dedicated technocrats and individuals from the private sector are volunteering their time and expertise to restore basic services and rebuild public confidence in the government.
Despite these commendable efforts, there exists a complex tapestry of challenges that the Sharaa government must navigate.
Officials express a sense of urgency regarding stability, emphasizing its critical role in containing the ISIS threat and preventing Syria’s fragmentation.
However, the country’s stability is continually hampered by foreign powers backing various factions competing for influence within Syria.
Moreover, Sharaa’s government faces ongoing tensions with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces as discussions about integration proceed.
Snowballing distrust regarding the government’s commitment to share power and ensure security further complicates the issue, alongside increasing Israeli military actions that heighten a prevailing sense of vulnerability.
On the economic front, officials are actively courting investors and pursuing comprehensive initiatives, including microfinance and capacity-building programs alongside larger mega-projects.
Yet, despite their ambitions, concerns surrounding transparency and trustworthiness persist, hindering sustainable investment.
As Al-Assil concludes, the mood, though cautious, remains forward-looking.
He asserts that while Syria’s transition is neither smooth nor assured, it offers a rare opportunity for institutional rebuilding and political recalibration, which is fraught with both potential gains and risks.
Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, highlights the need for the Sharaa administration to address the most immediate challenge facing the new government: the unification of Syria’s diverse religious and ethnic minority groups.
Panikoff reflects on the end of Assad’s rule, noting that the initial euphoria surrounding this change has quickly transitioned into the sobering realities of reconstructing a deeply fractured state.
“The most pressing issue for Sharaa’s government is how to unify the country’s varied minority factions,” he explained.
Druze located in the south, Alawite communities in the west, Kurds in the northeast, and Christians sprinkled throughout the country all remain suspicious of the new regime.
They are unconvinced that Sharaa’s leadership can guarantee their rights and provide them with an equitable voice in a centralized government structure.
To win the trust of these groups, the government needs to either persuade them to accept a centralized approach or consider evolving towards a federated governance model.
Time is not a luxury the Sharaa administration possesses.
As tensions remain unresolved, the possibility of enduring sectarian violence increases, which would severely undermine Sharaa’s objective of moving beyond the civil war and reintegrating Syria into the Arab and global community.
Experts offer a strategic suggestion for progress: Alex Plitsas, a nonresident senior fellow with the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, advocates for Syria to join the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS.
During his recent visit to Damascus, Plitsas observed a diverse and tolerant culture where community coexistence was evident, offering a promising foundation for the Sharaa government to build legitimacy.
“By joining the Coalition to Defeat ISIS, Syria can reinforce its commitment to pluralism and confront the extremist factions threatening its stability,” he argued.
Ongoing activity by ISIS cells remains a significant challenge, undermining security and hindering the safe return of displaced citizens to their homes.
Partnership with the Coalition could enhance Syria’s access to vital intelligence, training, and coordinated efforts to eradicate ISIS.
Moreover, establishing stability is crucial for Syria’s economic infrastructure, as foreign investments are unlikely to materialize without a secure environment.
A credible partnership against terrorism would signal readiness for economic re-engagement, reassuring potential investors about future opportunities.
Additionally, coalition membership could enhance trust with Israel, demonstrating Syria’s seriousness about countering regional destabilizing actors.
This could facilitate improved relations with the United States as well.
Cooperation against ISIS alongside the Druze community and Kurdish-led forces would also strengthen the government’s pursuit of an inclusive governance model, as Plitsas remains optimistic about Syria’s potential.
The new government’s ambition for peace and alignment with the West on significant matters presents another pathway forward, according to Gershom Sacks, deputy director of the N7 Initiative.
Sacks explains that Sharaa aims to end foreign dominance in Syria by curbing Iranian influence and dismantling Hezbollah’s supply routes, while also promoting a security agreement with Israel that would stabilize its southern border.
This shift in dynamics could be a crucial opportunity for Syria to evolve into a stabilizing regional force, contingent on strategic leadership and Western support to cement a positive trajectory.
To bolster this potential, Sacks urges the U.S. and its allies to establish increased cooperation concerning security, military, and counterterrorism efforts.
“Sharaa will need assistance to counteract threats that could reintroduce instability, particularly from ISIS remnants and the Iranian-Hezbollah alliance,” he pointed out.
Reinforcing Syria’s internal security will not only promote stability within the Levant but also enhance Sharaa’s legitimacy as he works to unify the country.
Investments targeting vital sectors contributing to Syria’s recovery are just as critical.
Sacks emphasizes the need for the West to engage in developing industries like cement production, logistics, and finance to foster infrastructure growth.
Investments in renewable energy, desalination projects, and advanced technologies could also provide significant opportunities for American companies while aiding the Syrian economy.
The recent decision to lift certain sanctions illustrates a positive step forward, according to Sacks, but shaping cooperation with Syria remains a priority.
In the end, the successful transformation of Syria into a stable and constructive state hinges on its ability to establish trust with the international community, safeguard minority rights, and rigorously prevent further sectarian violence from escalating, as noted during a recent incident in Sweida.
Sharaa’s government must find a balanced strategy to effectively engage with the Druze, Kurds, and Alawites while finalizing security agreements with Israel, including humanitarian provisions for southern regions.
Only through strategic maneuvering can Sharaa hope to present a new vision of Syria as a constructive partner on the international stage.
image source from：atlanticcouncil
