San Diego County is facing a troubling trend as enrollment in public schools continues to decline significantly.
Over the past decade, the county has seen nearly 30,000 fewer students attending public schools.
Furthermore, state projections predict that in the next 20 years, enrollment will drop by an alarming 112,000 students, which would erase nearly 30 percent of the current enrollment.
This decline raises concerns among educators who foresee the likely closure of schools across the region.
Areas such as Encinitas have experienced a 21 percent drop, while Alpine has seen a decrease of 15 percent.
South Bay Union has been hit even harder, with enrollment plummeting by 37 percent.
The educational community is understandably anxious, as many of the factors contributing to this drop, including declining birth rates and high living costs, are beyond their control.
Sweetwater Union High School District Superintendent Moises Aguirre characterized the trend as a “slow moving train wreck,” describing it as something visible yet challenging to grasp due to its gradual unfolding.
In the last decade, Sweetwater has lost nearly 13 percent of its students, and the situation could worsen as enrollment in many elementary districts that feed into the high school district is declining even more sharply.
Aguirre has noted the difficulty in communicating this predicament to local community members, particularly in light of new housing developments sprouting across Chula Vista.
“The underlying assumption is that there will always be more money, more people, more students,” Aguirre said, emphasizing how challenging it is for people to accept that such assumptions are no longer valid.
Grasping the precise causes of these trends is essential if there is any hope of reversing them.
However, in an age of polarization and growing anti-public school sentiment, understanding these issues can be complex.
In response to an earlier piece on enrollment declines, some readers suggested that the drop was due to parents shifting to private schools or homeschooling their children.
While there has been an increase in private school and homeschooling enrollment, these factors alone do not explain the overall decline in public school enrollment.
A closer look reveals that California does not provide specific data on the number of homeschooled children.
Instead, homeschooling figures are usually captured within the broader private school data.
Over the past decade, the number of children homeschooled in San Diego County has varied widely.
In 2014, approximately 2,228 children were being homeschooled.
This number more than doubled to 5,525 in 2020 due to pandemic-related school closures, but it has since decreased to 4,251, which still represents a rise compared to pre-pandemic levels.
Meanwhile, the number of students attending private schools has remained relatively stable over the years.
Despite the growth in homeschooling, the overall percentage of county students involved in private homeschooling remains minimal, accounting for less than one percent.
In 2014, just 0.41 percent of local students were homeschooled, while 6.74 percent attended private schools.
Last year, the figures were slightly higher, with 0.82 percent homeschooled and 7.16 percent in private institutions.
“It’s not insignificant, but it doesn’t explain where all of the public school kids are going,” said Alexander Alvarado, who develops student population projections for California’s Department of Finance.
While there have been changes to the homeschooling landscape that may obscure enrollment data, the significant increase in charter schools providing virtual homeschooling options has contributed to the growing enrollment in charters overall.
These programs often cater to students in surrounding counties, further complicating enrollment calculations.
For instance, two virtual homeschool charters in San Diego County currently enroll about 12,500 students, representing approximately 14 percent of the county’s charter school enrollment.
However, many of these students do not reside in San Diego County, casting doubt on the accuracy of enrollment data.
Despite the variations in data interpretations, the fundamental issue of declining public school enrollment remains unaltered.
Over the past decade, enrollment at local public schools—including both district-run and charter schools—has decreased by 27,004 students.
When private schools and homeschooling figures are factored in, the overall decrease is slightly adjusted to a loss of 24,446 students, pointing to a pressing reality: there are simply fewer children in San Diego County than in years prior.
One primary factor contributing to this decline is the consistently falling birth rates in the county.
Since the Great Recession, San Diegans, along with many Americans, have been having fewer children.
Recent reports from the CDC revealed that the U.S. birth rate hit a record low.
In 2023, the number of births in San Diego County reached its lowest level in over 30 years.
This trend is influenced in part by a reduction in unplanned pregnancies, but many individuals cite other reasons for their decision to delay or forgo having children.
Concerns about raising children amid challenges such as climate change, economic uncertainties, and the rising cost of living heavily impact these decisions.
The financial burden of raising children is exacerbated by the skyrocketing costs of housing, food, and other essentials, making parenthood increasingly daunting for many.
While San Diego County’s population had historically seen growth until recently, this trajectory has changed.
In recent years, the county’s population plateaued, primarily due to a decrease in net migration.
This stagnation has coincided with a notable exodus of residents during the pandemic, driven by escalating living expenses that have prompted many to seek more affordable locales.
Although San Diego County experienced slight population growth last year, it is uncertain whether this trend will continue moving forward.
Much of the recent growth can be attributed to foreign-born immigrants, a demographic that now faces increasing scrutiny from certain political circles.
Declining birth rates, stagnant population growth, and uncertainty surrounding immigration are all converging to create challenges for San Diego County, casting doubt on the long-term sustainability of its public school enrollment.
Alexander Alvarado, the projection specialist at the Department of Finance, highlighted that a significant shift is necessary to halt the continuous decline in enrollment.
“It’s sort of unprecedented. We haven’t been in a situation where enrollment is shrinking.
So, we’re kind of in uncharted waters,” he stated, remarking on the complexities of navigating this developing crisis.
image source from：voiceofsandiego
