According to a recent analysis by Colorado River water experts, people are consuming more water than the Colorado River Basin can supply, jeopardizing the water reserves for 40 million residents.
The basin states, including Colorado, must act immediately to reduce their water usage, the experts emphasized.
Current projections indicate that if next year produces the same river flows and water demands as this year, available water stored in Lake Mead and Lake Powell could plummet to less than 4 million acre-feet.
This alarming forecast is highlighted in a report released on Thursday, providing an overview of the precarious situation facing the Colorado River Basin.
With a combined capacity of 58.48 million acre-feet, Lake Mead and Lake Powell constitute approximately 92% of the entire Colorado River Basin’s reservoir storage capacity.
Experts underscored the urgency of the situation in a joint statement, warning, “If no immediate action is taken to reduce water use, our already-thin buffer of storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead could drop to just 9% of the levels with which we started the 21st century.”
Encompassing seven states, 30 tribal nations, and two states in Mexico, the Colorado River Basin stretches through the western half of Colorado.
The river’s water is vital for farms, ranches, cities, ecosystems, and industries throughout the state, facilitated through tunnels and diversions.
The region has faced an extended drought since 2000, representing one of the driest periods in a 1,200-year historical record.
Efforts by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, the agency overseeing federal water projects in the West, and other water managers to adapt to the diminishing supply have led to new reservoir rules and agreements in recent decades.
Despite these measures, the water storage in the basin continues to decline.
Records from 2021 and 2022 show that Lake Powell and Lake Mead reached historic low levels, further exacerbating the ongoing crisis.
These reservoirs function like savings accounts, modulating water flow from mountain runoff to the Pacific Ocean, ensuring supplies arrive at homes and businesses when needed.
Unfortunately, the basin has been operating at a deficit for years, with users consistently consuming more water than what nature replenishes, according to the latest expert report co-authored by Jack Schmidt, Anne Castle, John Fleck, Eric Kuhn, Kathryn Sorensen, and Katherine Tara.
Currently, there are roughly 6.3 million acre-feet in accessible storage within Lakes Powell and Mead.
“Accessible storage” refers to the amount of water above critical elevation levels for safe and reliable dam operations, with these thresholds set at 3,500 feet for Lake Powell and 1,000 feet for Lake Mead, as noted by the Bureau of Reclamation.
The experts warned, “If we continue business as usual, we will deplete nearly half that amount.”
Projected overuse in the basin over the next year could amount to approximately 3.6 million acre-feet if river flows and water demands remain constant.
Concerns about the future management of these precious water resources were voiced in the report, with experts questioning, “How close to the edge of the cliff are we?”
This uncertainty underscores the limited flexibility basin managers will have in water allocation once new reservoir management rules take effect in August 2026.
These rules, which aim to replace the 2007 system, are currently under negotiation among the seven basin states, tribal nations, and the federal government.
Determining how much water each entity must relinquish during dry years remains a significant sticking point within these discussions.
Some water cuts have already been implemented, with the Bureau of Reclamation reducing allocations to Arizona and Nevada by 533,000 acre-feet and cutting Mexico’s delivery by 80,000 acre-feet, mirroring reductions from 2025.
Additionally, the federal agency estimates that the Lower Basin will conserve an extra 800,000 acre-feet in 2026, while Mexico will contribute an extra 67,000 acre-feet.
Experts advocate for more significant reductions, noting that the variability in water availability necessitates careful consideration and planning for the future.
The report asserts, “The entire basin is in agreement that we must balance our water use with the natural supply.”
Nevertheless, the experts concluded that, despite commendable efforts, balance has not yet been achieved.
image source from：coloradosun
