France and the United Kingdom are on the verge of formally recognizing a state of Palestine, an action that would signify a significant shift in diplomatic relations and deepen their estrangement from Israel and the United States during the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
This potential recognition aligns with a mounting wave of global discontent regarding the humanitarian situation in Gaza, which has witnessed an alarming humanitarian toll, described by some as leading to widespread starvation in the blockaded territory.
Thus far, over 145 countries have acknowledged Palestine as a state, but the moves by France, the UK, and recently Canada, could represent a pivotal turning point in international diplomacy.
Mouin Rabbani, a nonresident senior fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, emphasizes that although these actions might be largely symbolic, they carry significant diplomatic weight. He suggests that the endorsement of Palestinian statehood by influential nations like France and Britain may prompt others to follow suit.
The upcoming recognitions are also seen as a pointed message to Israel. Michael Lynk, a former U.N. independent expert on human rights in Palestinian territories, notes that such actions indicate a growing displeasure among these nations regarding Israel’s conduct during the war in Gaza.
In response, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu strongly condemned the potential recognition, claiming it would reward Hamas’s terrorism while punishing the victims of the conflict. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed this sentiment, labeling the recognition as a reckless decision that only aids Hamas’s narrative.
Leaders from France, the UK, and Canada have consistently advocated for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a resolution that the Palestinians argue should encompass the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem. This September, during the U.N. General Assembly in New York, formal announcements of recognition are anticipated, each nation presenting its unique stance.
Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron communicated to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas his commitment to recognizing a Palestinian state. His letter outlined a call for an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages, generous humanitarian assistance to Gaza’s population, the demilitarization of Hamas, and measures to rebuild a Palestinian state that recognizes Israel.
Conversely, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has stipulated that Britain’s recognition of a Palestinian state is contingent on Israel agreeing to a ceasefire, ceasing settlement expansions in the West Bank, and committing to a viable two-state solution. He also stressed the importance of withdrawing Israeli forces and removing Hamas leadership from Gaza.
On a similar note, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney revealed that Canada’s recognition is aimed at preserving the roadmap for a two-state solution. He emphasized that the Palestinian Authority must hold elections in 2026, which should exclude Hamas.
According to the Gaza Health Ministry, more than 60,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces since the war began in October 2023, following a Hamas-led attack that claimed around 1,200 lives in Israel.
If the UK and France proceed with their recognition, four out of five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council — France, the UK, Russia, and China — will align on the issue, leaving the United States as the sole power refusing to alter its unwavering support for Israeli actions, according to Khaled Elgindy of Georgetown University.
Recognizing a Palestinian state would likely lead to the establishment of full diplomatic relations, enabling countries to exchange ambassadors with the Palestinian Authority. This could elevate Canada’s representative office in Ramallah to a full embassy, signaling a significant diplomatic shift.
Lynk points out that countries acknowledging Palestine would have responsibilities to protest and potentially take action, including sanctions against any state that infringes on Palestinian sovereignty.
In the United Nations Security Council, the recognition by France and Britain could translate to additional votes against Israel; however, Rabbani notes that both countries have historically refrained from using their veto to protect Israel, relying instead on U.S. veto power.
There are also potential repercussions for the International Criminal Court (ICC), which has issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant due to allegations of crimes against humanity and war crimes related to the Gaza conflict. Netanyahu has dismissed these charges as outrageous, labeling the ICC an enemy of humanity.
Yaël Ronen, a senior research fellow at the Minerva Center for Human Rights at Hebrew University, highlights that recognition of a Palestinian state could have legal implications concerning ICC jurisdiction. However, France has indicated that it would not arrest Netanyahu and Gallant, citing conflicts with obligations regarding immunities granted to states not party to the ICC, like Israel.
The recognition of a Palestinian state does not necessarily entail that France or Britain would detain these politicians on their soil. Notably, Rabbani mentions that Israel has previously utilized French airspace despite having indictments against its officials.
Although France, Britain, and Canada have all stipulated that Hamas must be sidelined from any future Palestinian state, the feasibility of this condition remains uncertain, given that Hamas controls Gaza and has certain relations in the Middle East alongside limited ties with Russia and China.
Meanwhile, a shifting public sentiment is evident in these countries. In the UK, a recent YouGov poll indicates that 45% of citizens support governmental recognition of a Palestinian state, while merely 14% oppose it. This growing public opinion may have influenced the timing and push for the recognition of Palestinian statehood.
For the nations choosing to acknowledge Palestine, Israel’s military actions in Gaza have pressured them to reconsider their stance. Former French Foreign Minister Hubert Védrine articulated that, in light of the harrowing situation in Gaza and the lack of hope for the future, it has become dishonorable for the government to remain passive.
Rabbani suggests that countries moving towards recognition may be aiming to revive possibilities for a two-state solution, which he describes as increasingly illusory. Political pressure domestically has exacerbated their responses to the Israeli government’s actions.
Recognizing Palestinian statehood poses a low-risk option for these countries, offering a means to address domestic calls for action without significantly altering the situation on the ground. This approach may serve as a substitute for more stringent measures, such as imposing actual sanctions on Israel, which have not emerged as proposals from the UK, France, or Canada.
In summary, while the potential recognition of Palestine by France, the UK, and Canada is a crucial diplomatic development, it raises questions regarding the implications for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the efficacy of such recognition in generating tangible change.
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