Republican Speaker Mike Johnson has forecasted that the ongoing federal government shutdown could soon become the longest in American history, stating his unwillingness to negotiate with Democrats until they pause their demands related to health care and agree to reopen the government.
On the 13th day of the shutdown, Johnson expressed his concerns while speaking to reporters at the Capitol.
He revealed that he was not familiar with the specifics surrounding the layoffs of thousands of federal workers by the Trump administration, a significant move viewed by many as a tactic to use the shutdown as leverage for reducing the government’s size and scope.
Vice President JD Vance has issued warnings regarding the impending “painful” cuts that may arise amidst the shutdown, while employee unions are responding with lawsuits against these layoffs.
“We’re barreling toward one of the longest shutdowns in American history,” Johnson remarked, highlighting the severity of the current situation.
As the shutdown persists, ramifications are emerging, affecting various government operations, closing iconic institutions like the Smithsonian, and creating disturbances in airport operations, which adds to the already frail economic landscape.
Currently, legislative activities in the House have come to a halt, as Speaker Johnson has opted not to recall lawmakers to Washington.
The Senate, having closed for a federal holiday on Monday, is slated to resume work on Tuesday; however, they find themselves at an impasse as Democrats refuse to acquiesce regarding health care negotiations.
Johnson did express gratitude to President Donald Trump for ensuring that military personnel would receive their pay this week, which alleviated one significant pressure point that might have encouraged discussions between the parties.
At the heart of the ongoing shutdown is a contentious debate centered around health care policy, particularly the Affordable Care Act subsidies set to expire for millions reliant on government aid for health insurance on the Obamacare exchanges.
Democrats are advocating for the extension of these subsidies, while Republicans believe such matters can be postponed for later consideration.
With both Congress and the White House currently at a deadlock, many are viewing the end of the month as a critical deadline for reopening the government.
This timeframe coincides with the start of open enrollment on November 1 for the health program in question, and numerous Americans could face steep increases in insurance premiums if Congress fails to renew these subsidy payments, which are set to expire on December 31.
The Kaiser Family Foundation has estimated that without renewal, monthly health insurance costs could potentially double.
Additionally, government employees who operate on monthly pay schedules, including a significant number of House aides, will be at risk of missing their paychecks during this protracted shutdown.
The health care issue has consistently plagued Congress since the Affordable Care Act was enacted under then-President Barak Obama in 2010.
During the Obama presidency, Congress experienced a 16-day government shutdown when Republicans attempted to discontinue the Affordable Care Act in 2013.
Similarly, President Donald Trump’s attempts to “repeal and replace” the law during his first term in 2017 were thwarted when then-Senator John McCain cast a significant vote against the plan.
With a record 24 million Americans now enrolled in Obamacare, Speaker Johnson indicated on Monday that his party is hesitant to pursue a similar route of repeal and replace, citing lingering emotional scars from the failed attempts in the past.
He expressed skepticism on the feasibility of completely undoing the Affordable Care Act by noting, “the roots are so deep.”
Johnson maintains that the Republican Party is open to discussions regarding health care matters with Democrats in the near future, provided they first agree to reopen the government.
The previous record for the longest federal shutdown occurred during President Trump’s initial term, over his demands for funding to construct a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, lasting 35 days before it concluded in 2019.
In the meantime, the Trump administration is wielding significant authority in terms of employee layoffs, which has led to dissatisfaction among some Republicans and lawsuits from employee unions.
The administration also has discretion regarding compensatory measures for workers, meaning certain personnel, particularly military, are being prioritized for pay despite the shutdown.
As the situation evolves, the Pentagon announced over the weekend its decision to access $8 billion in unused research and development funds to ensure military personnel are compensated, resolving immediate concerns about missed paychecks.
Conversely, other sectors, such as the Education Department, are facing increased pressure due to disruptions in special education and after-school programs as a result of the shutdown.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has advised that the administration could potentially utilize funds from the 2025 reconciliation act or other types of mandatory funding to maintain operations at various agencies, despite the shutdown’s constraints.
According to the CBO, the Department of Defense, along with other federal entities, received specific funding allocations under this law that could be utilized to continue compensating active-duty personnel, thereby reducing the number of workers forced to accept delayed compensation during this challenging period.
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