An analysis of the primary election results indicates that Mayor Bruce Harrell experienced a considerable defeat on his home turf—the 37th District in Southeast Seattle, where he garnered only 36 percent of the votes compared to his opponent, who received 56 percent.
Overall, Harrell failed to secure a majority in any legislative district within Seattle, apart from a narrow victory in the small section of the 32nd District that extends into Seattle from Shoreline, where he won by just 47 to 42, accounting for less than 5,000 votes.
The 37th District, which corresponds closely to the city council district Harrell previously represented from 2015 to 2019, also favored Lorena González in the 2021 election, though the margin was significantly tighter at that time, with González earning 36 percent and Harrell securing 33 percent, alongside votes going to other candidates.
This recent primary marks a stark contrast to Harrell’s performance during his 2015 election to the City Council District 2, where he received nearly 62 percent of the primary votes and subsequently won against Tammy Morales, who later assumed the same seat four years later.
González was known as the more progressive candidate in the 2021 election, suggesting that her supporters may represent a significant portion of Wilson’s voter base this year.
In other districts primarily or entirely within Seattle, historical voter preferences shifted from supporting Harrell in 2021 to backing Wilson in the current election. This trend is evident in areas such as the 34th District (West Seattle), the 36th District (Queen Anne, Magnolia, Ballard), and the 46th District (North Seattle).
Harrell also faced challenges in the 11th District in 2021, which covered part of South Seattle, but the redistricting has since changed the demographics.
In the 43rd District, encompassing Capitol Hill and the University District, Harrell trailed Wilson by a notable 14-point margin, with results showing 40 percent for Harrell against Wilson’s 54 percent.
In November, Harrell must bridge a nearly 10-point gap with challenger Wilson to secure reelection, a feat that has not been achieved by any sitting mayor in the past 28 years.
It’s worth noting that the electoral landscape often shifts between the August primary and the November general election, where voter turnout tends to rise significantly. Approximately 200,000 registered voters, or 40 percent, participated in the primary, but this figure could jump beyond 50 percent in the general vote.
Voter sentiment can change, and individuals who voted for candidates other than Harrell or Wilson may reconsider their choices come November.
However, recent trends suggest that this group may have limited impact on Harrell’s chances. Unlike in the 2021 elections, where nearly 34 percent opted for other candidates, this year, the remaining candidates aggregated only 8 percent of the votes, thereby not releasing many voters to decide between Harrell or Wilson.
In a revealing comment from Joe Mallahan, a candidate positioned to the right of Wilson, when asked if he would support Harrell, he firmly stated he would not and instead endorsed Wilson, highlighting the uphill battle Harrell faces.
As the election draws nearer, the dynamics in Seattle’s political landscape become increasingly critical for Harrell’s campaign.
image source from：publicola
