One year into her presidency, Claudia Sheinbaum has positioned Mexico on a path of stability while facing escalating challenges regarding economic growth and institutional resilience.
Sheinbaum, who made history as Mexico’s first female president when she took office in October 2024, emphasized the need for transformation and highlighted the importance of women’s issues in her initial address.
Following the reelection of US President Donald Trump in November 2024, international attention has shifted to Sheinbaum’s ability to navigate her relationships with political figures from her past, notably Trump and former Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO).
Despite this scrutiny, Sheinbaum has made it clear that her administration is independent of their legacies and actions.
Her mandate, supported by her National Regeneration Movement (Morena) party, has been particularly notable due to its rarity in the context of Mexico’s political landscape since the country’s democratization.
In the June 2024 elections, Morena achieved a supermajority in the lower chamber and a Senate majority, equipping Sheinbaum with increased authority to push forward her agenda.
Her approval rating remains robust, recorded at 78 percent in a recent Enkoll poll, signaling initial public satisfaction with her governance.
Domestically, the key to her approval rating can be attributed to swift and focused wins early in her term.
Claudia Sheinbaum implemented significant initiatives that resonated well with critical voter groups, highlighting her commitment to social welfare.
Among these initiatives is the constitutional recognition of various social programs and the introduction of the Pensión del Bienestar para Mujeres, a pension scheme benefitting women between the ages of sixty and sixty-four.
Additionally, Sheinbaum enacted a twelve percent increase in the minimum wage for most of the country, aside from Mexico’s northern industrialized areas which received a smaller adjustment.
This increase is notable, surpassing the 3.76 percent inflation rate, effectively enhancing citizens’ purchasing power.
Internationally, Sheinbaum has approached foreign policy with both pragmatism and assertiveness, continuing AMLO’s philosophy of prioritizing Mexico’s sovereignty.
Mexico has maintained a noninterventionist policy in the affairs of other nations unless it aligns with the nation’s foreign policy interests.
In managing her relationship with President Trump, Sheinbaum has adeptly avoided public confrontations that have characterized relations between the US and some of her regional counterparts.
By engaging in newly established working groups, she has fortified cooperation with the United States on pressing security issues, particularly concerning counternarcotics.
Sheinbaum has also sought to elevate Mexico’s presence on the global stage, participating in forums such as the Group of Seven (G7) summit in Canada, the Group of Twenty (G20) in Brazil, and meetings with the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States in Honduras.
On the trade front, one of her most ambitious proposals involves raising tariffs on nearly 1,500 product classifications, including essential goods such as footwear, apparel, toys, steel, and aluminum.
This initiative targets countries not included in free trade agreements, primarily focusing on China, India, and South Korea, and is framed as a protective measure for domestic industries.
However, this tariff proposal has created uncertainty within Mexico’s investment climate, just months ahead of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review set for 2026.
Recent statements from officials within the Economy Secretariat indicate that the implementation of these tariffs may depend on the outcomes of negotiations between the United States and China, highlighting Mexico’s exposure to external trade policies.
Despite her efforts, it remains clear that what Sheinbaum has yet to deliver could define her future success.
With five years remaining on her term, economic and security plans are imperative to her administration’s objectives, particularly as these areas have gained prominence under the Trump administration in the Western Hemisphere.
Sheinbaum’s economic strategy is founded on the principles of “Mexican humanism and social justice,” prioritizing welfare and cash transfer programs, representing an investment of three percent of the country’s gross domestic product.
According to her State of the Nation address in September, these initiatives have helped lift approximately 13.4 million individuals out of poverty, a central element of AMLO’s push for a “Fourth Transformation” aimed at reducing inequality.
While employment figures have remained stable at 2.6 percent, the government’s attempts to control consumer prices through measures designed to combat food inflation have been challenged by uncertainties tied to trade and tariffs.
The International Monetary Fund forecasts a modest growth rate of only one percent for Mexico in 2025, which is significantly below the anticipated 2.4 percent growth for the Latin America and Caribbean region overall.
Industrial activity metrics in Mexico are showing signs of slowdown, and gross fixed capital investment has been on a downward trend for the past nine months, even as foreign direct investment reaches historic highs.
Whether “Plan Mexico,” Sheinbaum’s comprehensive economic blueprint geared towards stimulating private investment across fifteen development hubs, will be capable of reversing adverse trends remains a critical point of scrutiny for her administration’s economic legacy.
The security aspect, historically a persistent challenge for Mexico, continues to be a top priority within the bilateral relationship with the United States.
The effectiveness of Sheinbaum’s security strategy is articulated through four main pillars: addressing the root causes of crime, strengthening the National Guard, bolstering investigations and intelligence capabilities, and enhancing coordination between state and local institutions.
The National Guard has emerged as a crucial component of this strategy, especially following its transfer of control to the Defense Secretariat, which redefined the civilian force as the fourth military branch just before Sheinbaum took office.
She attributes a 25.3 percent reduction in homicides and a 20.8 percent national decline in high-impact crimes to this strategy, along with community-level initiatives such as “Peace Fairs and Brigades.”
While there have been notable increases in arrests, seizures of drugs and arms, and the dismantling of illicit laboratories, the key question remains whether these measures have genuinely disrupted organized crime networks.
Although homicides decreased, the number of individuals reported missing in Mexico surged by over 31 percent since 2022.
For the 2026 fiscal package, the budget for the Defense Secretariat is projected to rise by 2.9 percent; conversely, the budget for the Secretariat for Security and Citizen Protection will experience an 18.6 percent reduction.
Despite rigorous efforts against transnational criminal organizations, public perception regarding safety remains dire, with 63.2 percent of urban residents feeling unsafe in their communities.
The complexity of the security landscape presents Sheinbaum with ample opportunities to adapt her strategies and improve outcomes as she enters the second year of her presidency.
Moving forward, Sheinbaum’s administration is expected to face a series of critical tests in the upcoming year that could significantly influence her legacy.
A pivotal issue will be the forthcoming USMCA review, especially in light of President Trump’s recent statements declaring the termination of trade discussions with Canada.
On the security front, the main queries will center around the depth of US-Mexico collaboration on issues such as fentanyl trafficking, counternarcotics efforts, and arms smuggling.
The effectiveness of these efforts through new and existing cooperation mechanisms will be crucial, alongside Sheinbaum’s ability to manage these collaborations on Mexico’s terms, advocating for minimal foreign operational presence.
The administration’s navigation of these dual priorities, all while maintaining popular support, will likely have significant repercussions for both domestic stability and international relations.
image source from：atlanticcouncil
