The No. 2 Miami Hurricanes fell to the Louisville Cardinals, losing 24-21 in a closely contested game at home on Friday night.
This defeat marks Miami’s first loss of the season, yet they remain in a favorable position as potential contenders for the College Football Playoff (CFP).
Despite the setback, Miami has built up enough credit through a challenging early-season nonconference schedule that allows them to absorb this loss without jeopardizing their playoff chances.
The Hurricanes (5-1, 1-1 ACC) struggled against a fierce Louisville defense that managed to intercept quarterback Carson Beck four times.
The final interception came in the last minute of the game, as Miami was in position to kick a tying field goal.
This loss has significant implications for Miami’s aspirations for the ACC title game.
Louisville, now at 5-1 overall and 2-1 in conference play, holds a crucial tiebreaker advantage over Miami.
Compounding matters, the Hurricanes do not face three other key ACC contenders: No. 12 Georgia Tech, Duke, and Virginia.
However, with their most difficult opponents behind them, Miami still has a strong opportunity to win the remaining games on their schedule and secure a spot in the Playoff.
Prior to the game against Louisville, Miami’s CFP odds stood at an impressive 97 percent, according to Austin Mock’s projections for The Athletic.
Following the loss, these odds dipped to 89 percent.
In contrast, Louisville’s chances surged to 23 percent after the victory.
Heading into the weekend, Georgia Tech also remained unbeaten and held the next-best playoff odds among ACC teams, at 31 percent.
The Yellow Jackets improved their position by defeating Duke, which brought their own CFP odds to 49 percent and matched Miami’s ACC race odds at 28 percent each.
Miami’s strong start this season included impressive victories against Notre Dame, No. 19 USF, and Florida, as well as a notable win over Florida State in Tallahassee.
Few teams faced a tougher schedule in the first half of the season, a fact reinforced by Louisville’s standing just outside the AP Top 25.
Looking ahead, Miami’s schedule appears more manageable, with an upcoming home game against Stanford, who is making a cross-country trip to Hard Rock Stadium.
Their most challenging remaining matchups include road games against SMU (5-2, 3-0) and Pitt (5-2, 3-1), as well as home games against NC State and Syracuse.
The teams on Miami’s remaining schedule have a collective record of 9-12 overall and 3-7 in the ACC.
If Miami can win out to finish the regular season at 11-1, they likely secure an at-large spot in the 12-team CFP.
However, if they suffer another loss and finish at 10-2, their playoff chances could diminish, paralleling last year’s scenario when they missed the playoff at the same record after failing to qualify for the conference title game.
Miami has now lost control over their path to the ACC title game.
Finishing the season at 10-2 without winning the conference could once again lock Miami out of contention for one of the five bids designed for the highest-ranked conference champions.
Last year, Clemson became the first team to claim a playoff spot by winning the ACC title, securing their place even if they hadn’t performed well throughout the season.
While a single loss to Louisville isn’t likely to extinguish Miami’s playoff hopes, the unbalanced schedule in the 17-team ACC means the margin for error is slimmer than before.
“When you play a really good team and you play in conference football, the margins are really small,” said Miami coach Mario Cristobal.
“One-possession games reign supreme during this time. And if you give away plays, it’s gonna get you. And tonight it got us.”
image source from：nytimes
