As the New York mayoral race heats up with five candidates vying for attention this November, the Orthodox Jewish community emerges as a significant demographic that may influence the election’s outcome.
A recent study by the UJA–Federation of New York reveals that Orthodox Jews make up about 20 percent of the city’s 1 million Jews, presenting them as a potentially decisive voting bloc.
However, this race is illuminating an often-overlooked reality: Orthodox Jews are not a uniform group but rather encompass a diverse range of religious and political beliefs.
To secure their support, it is essential to understand the multifaceted nature of the Orthodox community alongside other Jewish demographics.
A comprehensive poll from Zenith Research offers a glimpse into voting tendencies among different segments of New York’s Jews.
The poll indicates that Zohran Mamdani leads the mayoral candidates with 43 percent of the overall Jewish vote, including significant backing from Reform and nondenominational Jews.
Nevertheless, the breakdown shows that Mamdani’s appeal diminishes among Conservative and Orthodox Jews, which are grouped together in this poll.
In comparison, Andrew Cuomo and Eric Adams received 33 percent and 27 percent support respectively from these groups, highlighting the division within the Jewish community.
Critically, the Zenith poll fails to recognize the distinct identities within the Orthodox Jewish community.
Ashkenazic Orthodox Jews, primarily of European ancestry, include distinct subgroups: Hasidic Jews, who follow a communal tradition and are mostly based in Brooklyn; Yeshivish Jews, with a more academic outlook and a presence in Queens and Flatbush; and Modern Orthodox Jews, who attempt to blend traditional practices with secular engagement.
Additionally, New York is home to a large Sephardic population, comprised of descendants from various regions including Spain, Russia, Iran, and Turkey.
The diverse views within these communities shape their political attitudes on issues ranging from Zionism to community safety, making voter preferences complex and varied.
Examining previous election outcomes provides context for understanding current political alignments.
During the 2021 Democratic primary, significant precincts in Orthodox strongholds such as Williamsburg and Borough Park backed Andrew Yang, while areas like Flatbush and Crown Heights leaned towards Eric Adams.
So, how will the Orthodox Jewish vote manifest this time around?
Though many Orthodox Jews express concern over the potential for a Mamdani administration, the manner of their opposition remains uncertain.
Hasidic communities carry substantial electoral sway, with mixed sentiments towards Cuomo and Adams.
Cuomo, despite some negative histories—including Covid-19 policies that limited religious gatherings—managed to secure considerable rabbinic and community backing in the past.
His strategy of aligning himself as a centrist and emphasizing crime control may appeal to some Orthodox voters.
However, endorsement support from key Orthodox political organizations, like Crown Heights PAC, has recently shifted to state that prior endorsements may not apply to the general election, leaving their future support uncertain.
Adams has also established connections with the Orthodox community since his 2021 victory.
He created a dedicated office to address anti-Semitism and emphasized collaboration with Jewish community leaders throughout his campaign.
Expert opinions suggest that the dynamics could shift depending on what is perceived as the competitiveness of Adams in the race.
Nathaniel Deutsch, a professor at UC–Santa Cruz specializing in Hasidic history, noted that if Adams appears capable of winning, Haredi voters may rally behind him; missing this perception could change leader endorsements.
The presence of Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, further complicates Orthodox voting alignments.
Sliwa’s previous performance garnered him 54 percent of the vote in heavily Hasidic Borough Park during the 2021 election, suggesting significant appeal within that community.
Despite Adams winning in other heavily Orthodox neighborhoods, Sliwa’s political influence cannot be ignored.
The general political atmosphere may also benefit him; past exit polls indicated that 93 percent of Hasidic Jews supported Donald Trump in the last presidential election.
Given this backdrop, Sliwa’s candidacy may sway more Orthodox voters towards the Republican ticket.
Some segments of the Hasidic community appear open to a pragmatic approach.
The Satmar group has suggested a softening of their stance on Mamdani if he becomes seen as a frontrunner.
Moshe Indig, a prominent leader within the Satmar community, has publicly criticized Mamdani while also acknowledging his positive personal qualities, illustrating the community’s complex sentiments.
Rabbinic endorsements remain a topic of media focus; however, their actual impact may be overstated.
As Chapler Jacob Rosewater pointed out, a significant percentage of Haredi voters do not consistently vote in a straight partisan manner.
This phenomenon is evident in Kiryas Joel, where popular figures like Cuomo and Trump received robust support, contrasting with political figures lacking community favor.
In regions outside the Hasidic enclaves, Modern Orthodox voters tend to view themselves as centrists, although recent trends indicate a movement to the right.
During prior primaries, opposition to Mamdani united these communities around Cuomo, who they believe can best prevent Mamdani from assuming office.
Another important but often overlooked group consists of Queens’s recalibrating population of Sephardic Bukharian and Russian-speaking Jews, totaling an estimated 70,000 members.
Historically conservative but often politically inactive, this community has increasingly expressed dissatisfaction with progressive policies on public safety.
Adams has acknowledged this group by appointing a key ally, Victoria Zirkiev, as an important liaison.
Overall, the Jewish electorate, particularly within the Orthodox community, is diverse and fractured despite a shared apprehension towards Mamdani.
Some voters may overcome reservations about Cuomo in order to prevent a left-wing mayoral candidate’s victory.
The divisions present within these communities could ultimately define the electoral landscape.
As the November election approaches, the landscape is set for a multilayered battle for the Jewish vote that could determine the next mayor of New York City.
image source from：city-journal
