In 1985, the world was struck by harrowing images of famine in Ethiopia, leading to the historic Live Aid concert. This monumental event featured music icons such as Paul McCartney, Madonna, and Queen, raising over $100 million for famine relief in Africa. This humanitarian crisis also prompted a significant response from the U.S. government, which sought to develop a system to prevent similar tragedies in the future.
That year marked the launch of FEWS NET, the Famine Early Warning System Network, the world’s first comprehensive framework for predicting famine. By combining data on trade dynamics, weather patterns, crop reports, and migration trends, FEWS NET began producing timely and detailed reports on potential hunger hotspots.
For decades, this system has been instrumental for governments and aid organizations worldwide in forecasting and mitigating food crises. However, in January, a major disruption occurred when President Donald Trump issued stop work orders, taking FEWS NET offline and dismantling it as a key part of the U.S. Agency for International Development.
Now, with efforts underway to revive FEWS NET, there is a mix of enthusiasm and caution among humanitarian experts. Food security specialists express concerns about the revived system’s capability to preempt starvation as it comes back online.
FEWS NET is operated by a team of data analysts and specialists from over 20 countries, from Haiti to Somalia. These professionals analyze vast amounts of information to create forecasts that project hunger threats up to eight months in advance, regularly updating their predictions to help guide aid distribution and policy adjustments.
Luis Ramirez, a technical lead for FEWS NET in Latin America and the Caribbean, likens the system to a lighthouse that directs humanitarian efforts during crises. The goal is to prevent human suffering and potential mass migration while ensuring regional stability.
Alex de Waal, a professor at Tufts University, underscores the economic rationale behind FEWS NET: “It is far, far cheaper to prevent a disaster than it is to relieve suffering when a disaster unfolds.”
The impact of FEWS NET’s early warning capabilities was notably highlighted in 2016, when it successfully alerted stakeholders to a severe drought in Ethiopia. Just six months prior to the crisis, food aid was strategically positioned, resulting in extraordinary prevention of starvation and migration.
Despite these positive outcomes, the prevalence of famine continues to pose challenges. The operations of FEWS NET were severely hampered when President Donald Trump’s administration halted most foreign aid. Ramirez described the situation as being abruptly shut down, recalling, “It was pretty much like, ‘OK, just stand up, turn it off and walk away.’”
This halt led to unprecedented challenges for FEWS NET, as Tanya Boudreau, a Washington, D.C. based manager for the project, noted that it was the first and only time the network was offline.
By mid-April, some aspects of FEWS NET reopened, and the official website was restored by the end of June. Boudreau reported that by October, the agency aims to resume reporting on all countries it previously covered, along with global assessments and predictions for the coming months.
Although the State Department did not respond to inquiries regarding the reasons behind the system’s suspension and subsequent restart, many in the humanitarian field are viewing FEWS NET’s revival positively. Caitlin Welsh, director of the Global Food and Water Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted the importance of the information that FEWS NET provides for countries around the world.
Boudreau confirmed that they are evaluating the impact of the months-long shutdown on the information flow necessary for planning. She stressed the critical gaps that arose in decision-making caused by the interruption.
De Waal expressed concern that the shutdown could amplify issues in countries like Ethiopia, which recently saw the government expel the United Nations’ famine detection system. He remarked that due to the lack of reliable data from FEWS NET and the IPC, Ethiopia is now on the brink of a significant food crisis.
Given the uncertainty surrounding governmental transparency, de Waal pointed out that FEWS NET’s independence is crucial. Many countries rely on its objective analysis, especially when local governments might manipulate information for political ends.
“As soon as FEWS NET went offline, reverberations were felt around the globe since so many people depended on its data,” Welsh added.
When Ramirez learned that he could return to FEWS NET, he felt immense relief. His excitement was shared by his wife, who supported him during the job interview process. During the reinstatement discussions, she cheered his positive outcome enthusiastically.
Boudreau has been actively connecting with colleagues to ensure that FEWS NET resumes operations effectively. She highlighted that many experienced staff members returned, including those with extensive histories in the project, which allows the system to reinstate its work quickly.
Despite the suspension, many team members continued to monitor famine situations informally, demonstrating their commitment to the mission. Boudreau remarked on their dedication, stating, “While there’s been a gap in reporting, there hasn’t actually been a gap in monitoring.”
Looking ahead, Boudreau acknowledged that it remains to be seen whether FEWS NET will expand its operations beyond the current 20 countries. De Waal also remains skeptical about the system’s ability to maintain rigorous information gathering and whether actionable steps will be taken upon receiving this information.
His hesitation stems from reduced humanitarian aid from the U.S. and many European nations, raising concerns about the adequacy of future responses to food crises.
The revival of FEWS NET signifies hope for those committed to preventing famine and mitigating human suffering across the globe. However, its effectiveness hinges on the quality of data and the political will to act decisively based on its analysis.
image source from：npr
