Governor Gavin Newsom’s initiative to temporarily redraw California’s congressional districts has gained traction, with a recent poll revealing more support than opposition among registered voters. However, uncertainty lingers as many voters remain undecided about the measure’s potential impact.
The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies conducted the poll for the Los Angeles Times, gauging voter sentiment regarding Newsom’s redistricting efforts designed to benefit California Democrats. This move is framed as a response to President Donald Trump and Texas Republicans, who have been accused of redefining election maps to favor their party.
When asked if they support California’s redistricting strategy, 46% of voters viewed it positively, while 36% disapproved. Additionally, 48% indicated they would back the temporary gerrymandering proposal should it be included in the upcoming special election ballot in November. Conversely, nearly one-third of respondents planned to vote against the measure, and 20% remained undecided.
Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS Poll, pointed out that while this is not discouraging news, it could be better. “With ballot measures, you’d like to be comfortably above 50% because when people are undecided or lack sufficient information about initiatives, they tend to vote no, which is generally perceived as the safer choice,” he explained.
Support for the redistricting measure significantly increased among voters who regularly participate in statewide elections, rising to 55% in favor, compared to 34% opposed. DiCamillo emphasized the importance of this subgroup, stating, “If I were to pick one subgroup where you would want to have an advantage, it would be that one.”
This contentious political battle over district lines has implications for the control of the U.S. House, where Republicans currently hold a slim majority. Democratic leaders, including Newsom, assert that California must counter Texas’s partisan map alterations to ensure a balanced representation in Congress. Texas’s redistricting plan is projected to create five additional Republican-leaning seats that could secure the GOP’s continued dominance in the House. California’s redistricting aims to neutralize these gains, at least in the short term, with new maps scheduled for implementation in the 2026, 2028, and 2030 congressional elections.
Critics of the initiative argue that it undermines the state’s independent redistricting commission — a voter-approved mechanism — asserting that one political maneuver should not justify another. The poll results reflected deep partisan divisions: nearly 70% of Democratic voters expressed support for the redistricting measure, while a significant 72% of Republicans opposed it.
Notable political figures have weighed in on the issue, with former President Barack Obama endorsing the initiative, whereas California’s ex-Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who aligns with moderate Republican views, has voiced opposition, indicating he would actively fight against it. Opposition surfaced this week during legislative hearings in Sacramento, where Republican lawmakers denounced the plan as mere partisan strategy. They attempted to delay the process by filing an emergency petition with the state Supreme Court, asserting that Democrats violated the California Constitution by rapidly advancing the proposal through the legislative process. However, the court dismissed their challenge on Wednesday.
Legislative action has moved forward quickly, with new district maps unveiled late last week, followed by lawmakers introducing legislation early in the week to place the redistricting measure before the voters. On Thursday, the legislature approved the bills, solidifying the measure’s inclusion on the November ballot.
As the public face of California’s redistricting efforts, Newsom’s popularity appears to be on the rise as he confronts President Donald Trump and Republican leaders. His office has gained attention through a social media campaign that mirrors Trump’s distinctive communication style.
According to the poll, 51% of respondents now approve of Newsom’s performance as governor, a noticeable increase from April when approval ratings were evenly split at 46%. Furthermore, a significant 59% of those surveyed support Newsom’s confrontational approach toward Trump, with only 29% favoring a more collaborative strategy. Younger voters, particularly those aged 18 to 29, expressed robust support for Newsom, with 71% endorsing his stance as Trump’s primary critic.
Political analyst Matt Lesenyie from Cal State Long Beach suggested that just a month prior, Newsom’s leadership in the redistricting campaign may have been viewed as a liability. However, his national profile has been positively influenced by the escalating conflict over congressional maps and his direct engagement with Trump, which resonated with conservative commentators. Lesenyie believes this has provided Newsom with an effective avenue to broaden the campaign’s messaging.
“If he keeps this pace up, he’s right on a pressure point,” Lesenyie stated.
Political scientist Eric Schickler, co-director of the Berkeley Institute which conducted the poll, remarked on the inherent challenges of asking Californians to return control of redistricting to politicians after establishing an independent process. “Voters generally distrust politicians,” Schickler noted, adding, “However, the perception of Trump’s actions has created a unique context. It’s becoming a test of which sentiment holds more strength — voter mistrust toward politicians or discontent with Trump — and it appears Newsom is currently winning that argument.”
Ultimately, victory for Newsom in the upcoming November polls will hinge on swaying undecided voters. The poll highlighted that nearly 30% of Latino, Black, and Asian voters remained uncertain about their choices regarding redistricting. Additionally, the undecided rate among women was higher than that of men, at 25% compared to 14%. Younger voters, too, exhibited considerable indecision, with approximately a third of those aged 18 to 29 unsure, opposed to just 11% of older voters above 65.
Among Democrats surveyed, one in five expressed uncertainty about the proposal. Moreover, a significant quarter of voters identifying without a party allegiance reported being undecided.
Schickler emphasized that this suggests many potential votes are still available, declaring, “While I wouldn’t be surprised if the margin narrows between now and November, this is a good starting point for the proposition.”
image source from：latimes
