In June, Denmark introduced cutting-edge autonomous sailboats, named Voyagers, designed for scientific data collection and surveillance across the Baltic and North seas.
These vessels represent the latest advancements in maritime autonomous vehicles (MAVs), which are increasingly employed by Arctic states.
As the Arctic region continues to warm and melt, it has become a focal point for geopolitical competition.
Countries are striving for control over strategic military locations, trade routes, fishing rights, and access to mineral reserves within the region.
The introduction of MAVs provides nations with a compelling means to assert their claims in an area that is becoming more accessible yet also more contested.
These autonomous vehicles are capable of patrolling large areas of the ocean, reaching regions of the seabed previously deemed inaccessible.
Moreover, they can take on tasks that are too tedious or repetitive for humans, enabling states to gather data that would otherwise be costly or difficult to obtain.
However, the advanced sensors equipped on these MAVs can also be utilized for foreign surveillance and deep-sea exploration, complicating threat perceptions and potentially altering the dynamics of dominance in the Arctic.
Strategic security planning has emphasized the necessity of maintaining a presence in the Arctic, as echoed by the Department of Homeland Security in its 2021 Arctic strategy, which stated, “In the Arctic, presence equates to influence.”
Historically, it has been primarily the Arctic nations close to the region that could establish military bases, conduct research, and wield influence.
Yet technological advancements have enabled nations far from the Arctic to project influence there.
For example, China has asserted itself as a “near-Arctic state,” proclaiming certain rights to influence over the region.
To underscore its ambitions, China has begun deploying MAVs similar to those utilized by the United States and Denmark to conduct surveillance and research in the Arctic.
As countries adopt MAVs for both civilian and security operations, the international norms governing the Arctic have lagged behind this rapid technological evolution.
The rise of MAVs calls for a reevaluation of territorial security and the development of new strategic frameworks to address security concerns while fostering collaborative efforts.
The international community must actively promote and safeguard norms centered on cooperation and collaboration among Arctic stakeholders.
Practically, this involves ensuring diverse participants are included in discussions, fostering trust between involved states, and ensuring adherence to international law.
However, achieving these goals is easier said than done.
Current Arctic governance models differ from the hierarchical structures typical in other regions.
With no comprehensive treaty governing the Arctic, many parties have adopted a progressive governance model emphasizing non-hierarchical relationships.
The primary international organizations—namely the Arctic Council, the United Nations’ International Maritime Organization (IMO), and the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea—feature diverse memberships.
These include not only states and militaries but also indigenous communities, scientists, companies, and environmental organizations, all sharing a voice in decision-making.
Nevertheless, this inclusive governance model has made it slow to tackle pressing international legal issues.
As an illustration, it took the IMO twenty-four years to commence and ultimately establish the Polar Code.
The situation is further complicated by rising concerns regarding Russia’s intentions following its military actions in Ukraine since 2022, casting doubt on Moscow’s integrity within these multilateral organizations.
Additionally, industry stakeholders have had a limited input in Arctic governance dialogues.
These pressing challenges must be surmounted to adequately address the growing concerns surrounding MAVs.
One emerging regulatory framework is the Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) Code, developed by the IMO.
Even though the MASS Code is not yet widely implemented, it is anticipated to be finalized and adopted by May 2026, with a binding agreement expected by 2032.
The IMO aims for the MASS Code to serve as a foundational regulatory framework for autonomous vessels like Denmark’s Voyagers.
However, it currently excludes underwater vehicles and lacks a precise definition of “autonomous.”
While the MASS Code marks a positive step forward, there is a pressing need for more comprehensive regulations on MAVs in the Arctic.
The ambiguity surrounding the term “autonomous,” along with the dual-use of MAVs for exploration and surveillance, underscores the necessity for the Arctic Council to take further action.
The Arctic Council should encourage negotiations for a multilateral, non-binding agreement that encompasses all members and affiliates.
However, this non-binding framework raises challenging questions about enforcement and compliance, especially if a member state, like Russia, chooses to disregard it.
Despite this, forming such a regulatory agreement could facilitate flexible commitments, allowing states to retain discretion for sensitive operations.
It would also reinforce collaboration among allies through shared cybersecurity programs intended to protect NATO’s MAVs from potential cyberattacks from adversaries.
In addition, the agreement could promote operational transparency by enhancing international norms of trust and cooperation.
Though traditionally focused on environmental protection and scientific research, the Arctic Council must address the security challenges posed by MAVs.
Given the potential environmental impact of MAVs and their effect on cooperative scientific endeavors, it stands as an ideal forum for negotiation and discussion regarding an agreement on MAVs.
Several Arctic nations have already put regulations in place concerning MAVs.
For instance, Russia has enacted a federal law allowing the experimental operation of autonomous vehicles, while Canada has introduced legislation to regulate their production to safeguard the Arctic environment.
In order to tackle this growing issue, Arctic states should collaborate to unify their existing national regulations on MAVs and apply these consistently across borders.
Increasing human oversight of MAV operations, clarifying the definitions of MAVs in use, and establishing international emergency protocols will be crucial for maintaining peace and safety in the Arctic.
The road to effective regulations regarding MAVs in the Arctic is long and fraught with challenges.
From the ambiguity around MAV definitions to issues of international cooperation, creating and enforcing regulatory frameworks poses significant complexities, notably amid current geopolitical tensions.
Nonetheless, MAVs are revolutionizing the geopolitical landscape in the Arctic, where competition for influence is intensifying.
As Danish sailboats patrol the ocean’s surface and U.S. submarines navigate the seabed, the international community must unite to ensure the protection of the Arctic amidst rapid advancements in MAV technology.
image source from：atlanticcouncil
