Mayor Brandon Johnson is facing significant challenges a year before his reelection campaign begins in earnest.
With an approval rating of just 26%, he finds himself in a compromising position as the majority of Chicagoans express dissatisfaction with his job performance.
This discontent spans across diverse demographics, indicating a widespread issue regardless of race, location, or income level.
Despite recent strides from earlier polls that showed him in single digits, Johnson remains deeply ‘under water’ according to survey results from the Mansueto Institute for Urban Innovation and NORC at the University of Chicago.
Historically, an approval rating below 50% is often viewed as a critical barrier for incumbents losing reelection campaigns.
Former Mayor Rahm Emanuel experienced a similar fate with his approval ratings in the 40s when he opted for political retirement.
Lori Lightfoot, his successor, had a public approval rating in the 20s when she became the first elected incumbent mayor in 40 years not to be reelected.
Even more stark is the breakdown of Johnson’s approval ratings according to race, with only 20% approval among white voters and 38% among African American voters, a critical base for his support.
Among Hispanics, Chicago’s fastest-growing group, his approval is at 28%, while the disapproval rate is markedly high, hitting 69% among voters identifying as Asian-Pacific Islander.
These results signal troubling signs across all age demographics, where a majority have expressed disapproval of Johnson’s performance.
Johnson initially rose to power by winning overwhelmingly in Chicago’s 20 majority-Black wards and attracting young, progressive voters.
However, his current approval rating sits at just 22% among voters aged 18 to 29, and drops to 19% among those 60 and older—a group that traditionally has a higher likelihood of voting.
Breaking these numbers down further, 32% of voters aged 30 to 44 approve, while 28% score for those aged 45 to 59.
These numbers paint a grim picture of Johnson’s standing as he moves towards reelection.
The new survey also assessed how Chicagoans view Governor JB Pritzker, who enjoys a far more favorable overall approval rating of 64%, encompassing all age groups and demographics.
Against this backdrop of discontent, Johnson is trying to tackle issues of affordability, much like fellow politician Zohran Mamdani in New York City.
Despite focusing his efforts on taxing the wealthy and making businesses contribute their fair share, it came as a surprise that 53% of those earning less than $30,000 disapprove of Johnson’s performance.
Equally concerning is that 67% of those with an income of $100,000 or more share the same sentiment, along with 61% of those earning between $60,000 and $100,000 and 50% of individuals within the $30,000 to $60,000 income bracket.
Johnson’s path to political redemption pivots heavily on regaining trust within the African American community.
To build support, he has been actively engaging with the community through visits to African American churches and becoming a regular presence on Black radio shows.
However, the survey results indicate there is much work to be done.
Only 26% of voters on the West Side and 30% on the South Side approve of his performance.
From North Central and Northwest Side neighborhoods, approval ratings drop to 22%, and to 29% on the Southwest Side.
Contrary to the new polling, senior mayoral adviser Jason Lee stands by the internal numbers of the Johnson campaign, refusing to reveal them.
Lee argues that these internal metrics reflect the same numbers that propelled Johnson’s previous electoral win.
He emphasizes the significant progress made on public safety, asserting the administration’s achievements in reducing homicides and violent crimes.
According to Lee, Chicago is becoming safer and more affordable, reflecting Johnson’s commitment to impactful governance.
However, he acknowledged the rough start Johnson’s administration experienced, owing it to a significant migrant crisis encountered with limited support and resources.
Nonetheless, Lee remains optimistic that the administration is moving past those challenges and is poised to present a commendable record on vital issues.
In contrast, veteran Democratic strategist Peter Giangreco remains cautious about Johnson’s future, highlighting how Lightfoot’s approval ratings were twice as high and she still faced electoral defeat.
He asserts that Johnson faces a difficult climb ahead, noting that the impressions left by the mayor thus far are largely unfavorable among voters across the city.
Giangreco advises Johnson to take on the hard issues now, especially concerning this year’s budget, warning that avoiding these challenges will only exacerbate the city’s problems and jeopardize his reelection chances.
Delmarie Cobb, another veteran political strategist, shares similar concerns, emphasizing that she doesn’t require a poll to gauge the discontent brewing in the African American community.
She expresses that the feedback from her interactions highlights a deeper disappointment with Johnson’s administration rather than the outright anger experienced in previous administrations.
Cobb emphasizes that many community members perceive Johnson as lackluster, indicating that overlooking basic responsibilities while assuming a mandate is a significant mistake.
Cobb believes that it is pivotal for Johnson to reshape his narrative effectively to repair his reputation as he approaches the reelection campaign season.
She concludes that he still holds the power of incumbency to redefine his image and must do so proactively if he intends on improving his standing among constituents.
Despite the challenges he faces, there remains a glimmer of hope for Johnson if he exhibits decisive leadership and addresses pressing community concerns head-on.
The coming months could determine whether he can transform his current standing or if he will continue down the path of dwindling support as he strides closer to his next election.
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