A recent poll suggests that the race to succeed Congressman Dwight Evans is highly competitive, with interest surrounding Dr. Ala Stanford, who has not yet declared her candidacy.
In a poll conducted in early August for Black Leadership Pennsylvania (BLPA), Dr. Stanford, a notable pediatric surgeon and Penn professor, garnered 18% support from surveyed voters after they learned about her biography, particularly her impactful work during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Despite not officially entering the race, Stanford is reportedly preparing to run, as indicated by local political insiders.
Trailing her in the poll were State Sen. Sharif Street and State Rep. Chris Rabb, who each received 17% support, while State Rep. Morgan Cephas secured 9%.
Notably, one quarter of the surveyed voters remain undecided, showcasing the openness of the race for Pennsylvania’s 3rd Congressional District.
Kyle Anderson, executive director of BLPA, highlighted that even though there are emerging frontrunners, the early nature of the race allows room for candidates to define their public messages ahead of the Democratic primary next spring.
“Whoever can tell their story in a compelling way, and can talk about the issues that folks have indicated they care about in compelling ways, has a shot,” Anderson stated.
Currently, Cephas, Rabb, and Street have formally announced their candidacies, alongside Temple University professor Karl Morris, Jefferson Health physician David Oxman, and two other candidates.
All individuals running are Democrats, and with Evans’ district being one of the most Democratic-leaning in the country, the May primary is expected to determine the eventual winner.
Before candidates’ biographies were shared, Street was leading with 15% of voter support, followed by Dr. Stanford and Councilmember Isaiah Thomas at 7%, with Rabb at 6% and Councilmember Katherine Gilmore Richardson at 5%.
Over half of those surveyed remained undecided prior to learning about the candidates’ backgrounds.
Looking specifically at declared voters, Street performed well among Black residents, earning 22% support compared to a mere 4% among white voters.
Street’s backing comes mainly from older, Black, long-term Philadelphia residents who emphasize affordable housing as a key issue.
In contrast, Rabb’s support base appears more inclined towards younger, white, and college-educated liberals concerned with educational matters, while Stanford draws diverse support, particularly from men, LGBTQ+ individuals, and Black homeowners opposed to President Donald Trump.
The survey also explored perspectives on whether Democrats should target President Trump or prioritize pressing local issues.
A notable 31% of voters indicated that standing up to Trump and his MAGA agenda should be a priority for the next congressperson representing the 3rd district.
Other significant issues included protecting Social Security and Medicare (23%), reducing crime and violence (23%), creating affordable housing (21%), and improving public schools (20%).
Anderson emphasized that the purpose of the poll was not only about the House race but aimed to uncover the concerns of Black voters, crucial for future voter mobilization efforts, especially given the low turnout observed in recent elections.
Philadelphia’s Black precincts showed a decrease in Democratic performance and turnout rates in the last election compared to 2020, according to reports.
“Much of the messaging coming out of many of the campaigns was not necessarily tailored to or focused on what Black voters care about,” Anderson remarked, attributing dwindling turnout to a disconnect in issues addressed by the current campaigns.
Among voters’ concerns, crime was cited as a leading factor for their dissatisfaction with how Philadelphia is being managed, as dissatisfaction increased to 58% from 55% compared to the previous year.
Only 36% reported satisfaction with the city’s direction, with primary complaints revolving around crime (25%), poor leadership from public officials (14%), and budgetary issues (12%).
A deeper investigation highlighted that dissatisfaction levels rose among Black voters more than white voters, particularly affecting younger Black demographics.
Additionally, 44% of respondents felt that city services had remained unchanged over the last two years, while 35% perceived them to have worsened and only 16% noticed any improvements.
The timing of the poll was also critical, occurring shortly after a lengthy strike involving sanitation workers that resulted in significant trash accumulation in city streets.
The poll surveyed 584 likely registered Philadelphia voters between August 6 to 12, aiming to gain insights into voter sentiments.
Additionally, BLPA operates as a 501(c)4 organization, a type of nonprofit often referred to as a ‘dark money’ group, since it is not required to disclose its funders.
Anderson clarified that the organization’s contributors are primarily based in Pennsylvania.
The group was established by labor leader Ryan Boyer, lobbyist Joseph Hill, and others from the local business and labor sectors.
Boyer, a significant figure aligned with Mayor Cherelle Parker, leads the Philadelphia Building and Construction Trades Council and has previously played a role on Parker’s transition team.
BLPA is linked to the Black Leadership PAC, which can raise unlimited contributions for campaign-related activities and is prohibited from coordinating directly with candidates.
Records indicate that the super PAC collected $1.2 million last year, mainly from Black Leadership Pennsylvania, and utilized these funds for voter engagement efforts, such as canvassing and advertisements.
Looking ahead, Anderson emphasized their aim to establish a persistent presence in Black communities starting with Philadelphia, before extending efforts to other urban areas in Pennsylvania, under the belief that elections should have year-round engagement.
“Our focus is to build relationships through community events and eventually mobilize when it’s time for elections,” he stated.
The group plans to officially open its office in Germantown next month, making resources available for voter information and community-related programs.
The approach is built on the premise that individuals will be more willing to engage in the voting process when they are familiar with their advocates, creating a strategy aimed at enhancing voter turnout and advocacy in forthcoming elections.
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