A recent poll conducted by the Northwest Progressive Institute (NPI) reveals incredibly close contests for both the Seattle Mayor and City Attorney positions, indicating vulnerability for incumbent officeholders.
The survey highlighted incumbent Mayor Bruce Harrell and City Attorney Ann Davison as each struggling to maintain majority support, intensifying their battles as the August 5 primary approaches.
According to NPI Executive Director Andrew Villeneuve, the races are tightly contested, with some momentum observed in favor of challenger Katie Wilson, General Secretary of the Seattle Transit Riders Union and a longstanding progressive coalition leader.
In the initial ‘who are you voting for’ question of the poll, Harrell led Wilson by a mere two percentage points, with 39% of voters unsure of their support.
The results showed:
– Bruce Harrell: 29%
– Katie Wilson: 27%
– Joe Mallahan: 3%
– Clinton Bliss: 1%
– Ry Armstrong: 0%
– Isaiah Willoughby: 0%
– Thaddeus Whelan: 0%
– Joe Molloy: 0%
– Not sure: 39%
In a follow-up question to gauge the undecided voters, both Wilson and Harrell received support from 12%, while many remained uncertain.
However, when presented with detailed information from the voter pamphlet, Wilson took the lead in the poll with:
– Katie Wilson: 35%
– Bruce Harrell: 33%
– Joe Mallahan: 6%
– Clinton Bliss: 3%
– Ry Armstrong: 1%
– Isaiah Willoughby: 1%
– Joe Molloy: 1%
– Thaddeus Whelan: 0%
– Not sure: 19%
In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Wilson’s advantage slightly increased, as polling indicated:
– Katie Wilson: 40%
– Bruce Harrell: 37%
– Not sure: 24%
The polling also uncovered substantial differences in favorability ratings.
Wilson recorded a net +16% favorability, while Harrell fell into negative territory at net -9%.
Prior to Wilson entering the race, pundits had expected Harrell’s reelection would be straightforward.
However, the emergence of Wilson has shifted the dynamics, positioning her favorably against the incumbent.
Villeneuve noted a particular trend concerning incumbents in Seattle’s political landscape, underscoring a challenging environment for officeholders seeking reelection.
“For Harrell, the challenge is accentuated as he is now seeking a second term amidst these unusual political dynamics, where incumbents often face significant hurdles in Seattle’s mayoral contests,” Villeneuve stated.
Notably, no incumbent has successfully been reelected in Seattle since Greg Nickels in 2005, presenting a long-standing trend against incumbency.
The race has also seen notable media endorsements.
Wilson secured critical endorsements from The Stranger and the Urbanist Elections Committee, while Harrell managed to receive the endorsement from the Seattle Times, a traditionally conservative outlet.
However, the editorial tone of the Times’ endorsement was skeptical, raising concerns regarding Harrell’s recent decisions, including a controversial business and occupation (B&O) tax restructure.
Harrell’s proposal of increasing rates on larger corporations by about 50% had raised alarms about potential consequences for Seattle’s business climate, specifically fears of a corporate exodus.
The editorial board expressed doubt regarding Harrell’s leadership approach, suggesting that his political instincts are more self-serving than community-oriented.
Furthermore, Wilson’s camp highlighted Harrell’s hesitance in addressing progressive tax reforms during significant budgetary challenges until her campaign began gaining traction.
In terms of labor support, while Harrell received backing from the MLK County Labor Council, Wilson gained traction among more progressive unions.
On July 17, Wilson announced her endorsement from PROTEC17, which represents a wide array of city workers, indicating strong support from rank-and-file members.
During a press event at city hall, PROTEC17 joined with representatives from UAW 4121, WFSE 1495, the American Federation of Teachers, and the Working Families Party to back Wilson’s candidacy.
Karen Estevenin, Executive Director of PROTEC17, articulated the union’s belief in Wilson’s vision for an equitable Seattle.
“With her inspiring commitment to building a thriving Seattle that works for all, along with the grit and determination to lead this city into a new era, Katie will find solutions that lift all Seattle residents up,” Estevenin stated.
Support for Wilson grew from her focus on pressing issues such as housing affordability and living wage development, resonating well with union members.
PROTEC17 member Ashley Harrison commented on Wilson’s readiness to tackle crucial policy priorities.
Meanwhile, in the race for Seattle City Attorney, incumbent Ann Davison seems to be securing her position in the primary with a leading percentage but still shows signs of vulnerability among voters.
Davison currently stands at just 31% according to the NPI poll.
Former federal prosecutor Erika Evans emerged as a strong challenger among three progressive candidates, earning 18% support in the poll.
The results for the City Attorney race were as follows:
– Ann Davison: 31%
– Erika Evans: 18%
– Rory O’Sullivan: 5%
– Nathan Rouse: 2%
– Not sure: 24%
The momentum shifted for Davison when voters were presented with pamphlet statements.
The revised figures showed Davison at 33%, while Evans trailed closely at 29%.
The breakdown showed:
– Ann Davison: 33%
– Erika Evans: 29%
– Rory O’Sullivan: 8%
– Nathan Rouse: 6%
– Not sure: 24%
Although Change Research did not provide a head-to-head analysis of a matchup between Davison and Evans, indications suggest that supporters of Rouse and O’Sullivan are more inclined to support progressive candidates like Evans rather than the incumbent Republican Davison.
Collectively, the three progressive challengers gained a combined 43% support compared to Davison’s 33%, signaling a formidable challenge ahead for her in the general election.
As Seattle voters prepare for the primary lead-up on August 5, the current voter turnout remains low.
As of this week, King County officials reported that under 9% of registered Seattle voters had returned ballots.
With just one week left until the primary election, the outcomes of these races remain highly uncertain, underscoring the competitive landscape of Seattle’s political scene.
image source from：theurbanist
