On July 23, negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul lasted only forty minutes, resulting in a prisoner exchange but little else of significance. Both sides quickly recognized the lack of grounds for extending discussions, as no progress was made toward a stable cease-fire.
This lack of progress was anticipated. Dmitry Peskov, spokesperson for Russian President Vladimir Putin, indicated that the two sides remained significantly apart. Putin continues to believe he can outlast the resolve of the United States and Europe, who are vital allies for Ukraine, banking instead on military success.
There have been strong indicators suggesting that President Putin may be underestimating both Trump’s approach towards supporting Ukraine and the resilience of Western unity.
In a notable shift, on July 14, the White House announced intentions to sell advanced weaponry to NATO allies for transfer to Ukraine. Additionally, it warned of a 100 percent tariff sanction on Russia and its trading partners if no stable cease-fire is reached within fifty days.
Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president and current deputy chairman of Russia’s security council, quickly dismissed this announcement as inconsequential, suggesting it would not change Russia’s stance. Moscow seems to perceive Trump’s threats as mere bluster aimed to coerce compliance.
However, since Trump’s declaration, US and Western support for Ukraine has manifestly escalated. A key focus has been enhancing air defense capabilities, particularly through the acquisition of US-manufactured Patriot batteries and interceptor missiles.
During the recent visit of German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius to Washington, both nations reached a preliminary agreement. Germany is set to obtain two Patriot batteries with missiles and will supply two existing batteries to Ukraine.
In tandem, the United States and the European Union formalized an agreement to fully finance the procurement of US weaponry, some of which is earmarked for Ukraine. Moreover, the US State Department announced a $322 million arms sale to Ukraine, encompassing HAWK Phase III air defense systems along with repair parts for Bradley infantry fighting vehicles.
A potential deal for the exchange of Ukrainian drones for additional US weapons is also on the horizon. Furthermore, the Ramstein group, which has been coordinating extensive military aid to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion, convened on July 21, with the meeting led by the United Kingdom and Germany, marking a shift away from US dominance in the group’s leadership.
The July 21 gathering yielded bad news for Moscow as several countries, including Norway, the Netherlands, and Canada, pledged $1.3 billion in military support for Ukraine, with more than $500 million allocated for the co-production of drones and missiles.
Additionally, NATO’s posture has strengthened considerably. General Chris Donahue, US Army forces commander in Europe, publicly stated that NATO troops could easily take Kaliningrad, Russia’s exclave between Poland and the Baltic states. This bold assertion is a necessary response to years of Russian military provocations, including consistent violations of NATO airspace.
The recent return of US nuclear arms to the United Kingdom, after a nearly twenty-year absence, also underscores NATO’s enhanced readiness and commitment to counter Russian aggression.
Moscow’s response to these developments has not indicated any reconsideration of its aggressive stance in Ukraine. Instead, Russia has attempted to exploit recent protests in Kyiv against President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s controversial decision to consolidate independent anti-corruption agencies under the prosecution general’s authority, mischaracterizing these protests as anti-war demonstrations.
Zelenskyy demonstrated adept crisis management by reversing his decision, which diffused potential unrest. Russia appears to be playing for time, with suggestions that Trump and Putin might convene in Beijing in September during a festive event, hoping to persuade Trump to reconsider the fifty-day deadline for imposing tariff sanctions should a cease-fire remain unattainable.
Ultimately, the Kremlin seeks to delay the current situation. Putin continues to rely on the hope that Trump might retract his push for a durable resolution to the conflict. His long-term strategy hinges on the Russian economy avoiding collapse.
In response, Trump and his allies must show unequivocal commitment to supporting Ukraine in the long run. Only sustained pressure and support can persuade Putin to accept a lasting peace with an independent Ukraine.
John E. Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and former US ambassador to Ukraine, outlines these critical developments and their implications for Ukraine, NATO, and US foreign policy.
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