Researchers from the University of Hawaiʻi and other institutions have released a new study warning that current energy policies could lead to “creeping collapse” in systems across the state.
Imagining a future Hawaiʻi that not only achieves but surpasses its ambitious goal of generating all electricity from renewable resources by 2045 reveals a transformative landscape.
In this envisioned scenario, homes, businesses, and transportation systems—including ground and ocean transport—have all transitioned to carbon-free operations.
Gone are the land-hungry wind and solar farms, replaced by innovative nuclear reactors fueled by salt, geothermal energy, biofuels, and recycled iron powder.
Transportation sees a shift as ships run on ammonia and cars operate on next-generation batteries that do not require rare earth minerals.
With electricity becoming plentiful and inexpensive, electric train systems transport passengers seamlessly across all the islands.
The study titled “Assessment of the Scope of Tasks to Completely Phase Out Fossil Fuels in Hawaiʻi” presents a comprehensive analysis of what it will take for the state to reach its mandated renewable energy goals.
Acknowledging the limitations of current strategies, the report highlights that simply replacing fossil fuel electricity generators with wind, solar, and battery systems is insufficient.
The authors conclude, “The status quo is not a scenario of safety or stasis; it is a scenario of structured vulnerability and creeping collapse.”
Peter Sternlicht, director of the non-profit Sustainable Energy Hawai‘i and co-author of the study, explained that the goal is not to endorse a specific energy model but to offer metrics for crafting individual strategies.
“We have to rethink how we do things,” he emphasized.
Currently, Hawaiʻi’s energy policy primarily focuses on rooftop solar and large wind and solar farms operated by third-party producers, which sell power at wholesale rates to Hawaiian Electric Co.
However, this plan faces significant challenges. The recent Maui wildfires have had detrimental impacts on HECO’s financial situation, and broader political factors, such as President Donald Trump’s opposition to state renewable energy policies, add to the uncertainty.
Additionally, the Hawaiʻi State Energy Office’s proposals for developing a liquefied natural gas terminal to support oil-dependent generators raise fears about the state’s commitment to its 2045 deadline.
The University of Hawaiʻi’s recent study introduces the notion that rather than relying solely on wind and solar energy, it’s time to consider other renewable resources, particularly geothermal and nuclear power.
Sternlicht criticized the prevailing narrative that suggests wind and solar will suffice for energy sustainability, stating, “They’ve been selling the idea that we just put some wind and solar and everything will be OK. But it won’t.”
To illustrate the range of possibilities, the report lays out nine potential scenarios, from maintaining the current status quo to more radical proposals, including the complete absence of wind and solar and the introduction of electric trains across all islands.
While some models suggest reducing energy consumption by 40%, almost all options—including hybrid models—rely on both geothermal and nuclear energy.
A significant hurdle remains the public perception of geothermal and nuclear energy. Geothermal energy, for example, is controversial and has faced resistance from local communities, making it a challenging option to pursue in Hawaiʻi.
Additionally, the Hawaiʻi Constitution mandates a two-thirds vote from both the House and Senate to permit the construction of a nuclear fission plant, further complicating the matter.
Sternlicht acknowledges the need for a concerted effort to galvanize lawmakers, regulators, and the public toward the adoption of these energy alternatives.
However, there are emerging signs that both geothermal and nuclear options are gaining traction among influential figures.
In the last legislative session, Sen. Glenn Wakai, chair of the Committee on Energy and Intergovernmental Affairs, proposed a study exploring the feasibility of nuclear power in Hawaiʻi.
Although the bill did not advance, lawmakers passed a resolution to establish a working group dedicated to studying nuclear power and another to assess geothermal options.
In a recent text message, Wakai expressed that the UH study supports the legislative efforts underway.
“Hawaiʻi isn’t looking into grandpa’s nuclear plant,” he stated. “Technological advancements can pump out huge amounts of power with minimal waste.”
Wakai noted that developing the “molten salt” reactors envisioned for Hawaiʻi will require an estimated five years to achieve commercial-scale production.
“The newly established nuclear working group,” he added, “is pacing policy with technology.”
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