As Covid cases increase in the summer months, many individuals are wondering about their risks and whether it’s time to receive another vaccine.
As of July 15, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported that Covid cases were growing or likely growing in 27 states, including Texas, Illinois, Kentucky, Virginia, and Ohio.
Additionally, positive test rates for Covid have risen in recent weeks, particularly in the southern region of the United States.
Currently, the variant N.B.1.8.1 is the dominant strain, accounting for 43% of all new Covid cases in the country. This variant is an offshoot of the XVD.1.5.1 strain, which itself is a descendant of the omicron variant. It has been linked to a surge of hospitalizations in China earlier this year.
Due to anecdotal reports of painful sore throats associated with this variant, it has been nicknamed “razor blade throat.” However, Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, pointed out that sore throats have been a common symptom of Covid from the start.
“I doubt the clinical spectrum of Covid has changed substantially,” Schaffner stated.
With the rise in cases, many Americans may be considering whether they need a Covid booster shot. In recent months, the FDA has urged drug manufacturers to update their Covid vaccines to target the LP.8.1 strain, another offshoot of omicron that currently constitutes 31% of all new cases as reported by the CDC.
These updated vaccines are not expected to be available until the fall and will likely be approved primarily for adults aged 65 and older, and for children and adults with at least one medical condition that increases their risk of severe illness. For healthy adults and children who wish to receive a shot, acquiring an older version may be necessary, potentially at a cost of up to $140.
Despite the potential rise in Covid cases, experts suggest that population immunity—either from vaccination, prior infections, or a combination of both—may provide some level of protection against widespread transmission.
Andy Pekosz, an infectious disease researcher at Johns Hopkins University, noted that while there may not be a high level of immunity within the population due to the long interval since many have received their vaccinations, there could still be sufficient low-level immunity to hinder virus transmission.
“While we don’t have a lot of high-level immunity in the population right now, we may have enough low-level immunity to just make it a little bit harder for that virus to transmit easily from person to person,” Pekosz stated.
Moreover, weekly hospitalization rates have remained low, indicating that the current variant may not lead to severe illness in most individuals.
At this point, the number of Covid cases is substantially lower than during the same period last year, when the test positivity rate peaked at 17.9% in August. The current season has yet to reach a positivity rate of 5%.
It is noted that an uptick in cases during the summer isn’t uncommon, as people may congregate indoors to escape the heat. Pekosz expressed optimism that any potential summer surge will remain comparatively small.
“The variants have been around for a while and haven’t caused any major surges up until date,” he noted. “So again, I’m hopeful that if we see a surge, it’ll be a low-level surge compared to previous years.”
Dr. Ofer Levy, director of the precision vaccines program at Boston Children’s Hospital, suggested that individuals at high risk of severe illness consider receiving a Covid shot if the opportunity arises. High-risk groups include older adults, immunocompromised individuals, pregnant women, and those with underlying health conditions such as asthma and heart disease.
Levy emphasized that individuals in high-risk categories who have not received a Covid shot in over a year should consider getting vaccinated: “If you’re in a high-risk group and you’re in a state where cases are rising, you may want to just get the first available appointment and get a shot to protect yourself.”
For high-risk individuals, it may be prudent to receive another Covid shot once the updated vaccines become available in the fall, Levy explained.
Schaffner of Vanderbilt also advised that individuals in high-risk groups might want to wear masks during indoor activities, such as going to the movies.
In contrast, healthy adults and children can likely wait longer before getting another vaccine, according to Levy. He indicated that recommendations become less clear for those in lower-risk groups: “If you want a vaccine and your healthcare provider concurs and you can get it, that’s where things get fuzzy.”
Dr. Michael Phillips, an infectious disease doctor at NYU Langone, noted that mostly immunocompromised and older adults are testing positive for the virus. He expressed that those who haven’t received a Covid shot in years shouldn’t be overly concerned at this point though it might warrant discussion with a healthcare provider.
Phillips said, “If you’re younger, otherwise healthy, I think you’re OK. If you have underlying pulmonary disease or are an older age group, that’s a time when you should be really talking to a doctor and saying, ‘Gosh, should I be getting a booster for Covid?’”
Notably, NYU Langone has reported a 40% decrease in positive Covid tests since February, indicating a possible downward trend in infections.
Fatima Amaeka, a senior analyst at the Center for Outbreak Response Innovation at Johns Hopkins, anticipates that the current wave of cases will peak around September. Schaffner echoed this sentiment, predicting another wave in late fall and winter, stating, “[Covid] has two increases each year. Everyone is familiar with the winter increase that goes along with flu and RSV.”
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